2014 American League Central Preview

***The Division Preview that follows is not betting advice in any way shape or form.  Please do not bet any money based in any part on these predictions.***

Detroit Tigers Logo Courtesy of Sports Logos.net

Detroit Tigers

Who's New?: 

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Ian Kinsler (2B) trade from Rangers,
Steve Lombardozi (2B) trade from Nationals,
OUTFIELDERS
Rajai Davis (OF) free agent from Blue Jays,
Ezequiel Carrera (OF) free agent from Indians
Trevor Crowe (OF) free agent from Astros
STARTING PITCHERS
None
RELIEF PITCHERS
Ian Krol (RP) trade from Nationals,
Joe Nathan (RP) free agent from Rangers,
Eduardo Sanchez (RP) free agent from Cubs,
Joba Chamberlain (RP) free agent from Yankees,
Duane Below (RP) free agent from Marlins,
Who Left?:  
CATCHER/INFIELDERS
Prince Fielder (1B) trade to Rangers,
Brayan Pena (C) free agent to Reds,
Jhonny Peralta (SS) free agent to Cardinals,
Omar Infante (2B) free agent to Royals,
Ramon Santiago (IF) free agent to Reds
OUTFIELDERS
None
STARTING PITCHERS
Doug Fister (SP) trade to Nationals,
Jair Jurrjens (SP) free agent to Orioles
RELIEF PITCHERS
Jose Veras (RP) free agent to Cubs,
Joaquin Benoit (RP) free agent to Padres,
Jose Valverde (RP) free agent to Mets
Jeremy Bonderman (RP) unsigned free agent
Octavio Dotel (RP) unsigned free agent
Winter Headlines:
Brad Ausmus replaces Leyland;
Scherzer wins Cy Young becomes trade bait.
Cabrera wins second straight MVP,
Fielder unhappy, replaced by Kinsler.
What to Expect?:
The Tigers were clearly the dominant team in this division.  There has been little competition for the division lead over the last few years (although the White Sox did put up a great fight in 2012).  Yet, for some reason, they don't seem to be able to take that final step.  Last year was unfortunate.  Miguel Cabrera suffered through injuries which slowed him in the post season and Prince Fielder appeared to be pressing to create the offense that Cabrera could not create.  The result was another disappointing end to the season.  Jim Leyland is gone as are Fielder, Omar Infante and Doug Fister.  Justin Verlander injured a core muscle in offseason workouts and required surgery.  With new leadership and Joe Nathan at closer, expect the Tigers to contend yet again but there are some serious concerns with this team starting with the rotation, which has been the foundation of this current run of success.  With Fister gone and Verlander dealing with a potential health issue Scherzer has more pressure than ever to be the team ace.  Verlander is said to be ahead of schedule in recovery but he could be pushing himself to return knowing how close this team is and how important his presence is.  There is a potential that this could turn into a nagging injury.  Any further health issues in the rotation could lead this team to have some major issues.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
This team has been amazingly close over the last 8 years.  Some of these players, like Verlander, have been with the Tigers organization through some painful losses.  It would be nice to see this group finally get over the hump.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Tigers Fans Want?:
The problems entering this year appear to be the same problems they had last year (and a few extra).  The bullpen is much improved but there are always questions about how long Joe Nathan can last.  Left field is still questionable with Andy Dirks and Rajai Davis.  Catcher is still a question with Alex Avila and the loss of Brayan Pena makes Avila the only option.  Verlander may not be ready for opening day after severely injuring an abdominal muscle and by trading Fister, the Tigers severely lost pitching depth.  There are questions about how Ausmus will impact the team as the new manager.  So although they are still the favorite in this division they have some serious questions and don't be shocked if Kansas City challenges them for the division lead.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Joe Nathan is a very good pitcher and has been for a long time starting with the Twins, followed by  time with the Rangers.  He has had several arm surgeries and had some tough periods over the last few years.  That being said, Nathan has had more good times than bad in his career.  You can expect Nathan to improve what was the Tigers' biggest issue last year, however, don't expect him to be a miracle cure.
Expect Great Things From:
Miguel Cabrera is a special player.  Even with serious nagging injuries last season he was able to contend for the triple crown and lead the Tigers to the brink of a World Series.  Cabrera is one of those players that comes along once in a generation.  At this point in his career he is clearly the top player in the league.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Torii Hunter will turn 39 near the All Star Break.  Hunter is one of the great ambassadors of the game.  He is one of the good guys and one of the most respected players in the game.  Since 1997 Hunter has given his all in every game he has played and has impacted the community in Minnesota, Anaheim and now Detroit.  He has been one of the best players in the league and has accomplished nearly everything in his career except win a World Series.  As the Tigers continue to try to take that final step the question always remains the same: how quickly will the window close on the Tigers and can they win it before Hunter walks away?
Prediction: 1st in AL Central

Kansas City Royals logo Courtesy of Sports Logos.net

Kansas City Royals:

Who's New:  

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

Brandon Laird (IF) free agent from Astros,

Ramon Hernandez (C) free agent from Blue Jays

Omar Infante (2B) free agent from Tigers, 

OUTFIELDERS

Norichika Aoki (OF) trade from Brewers, 

Melky Mesa (OF) free agent from Yankees,
Carlos Peguero (OF) trade from Mariners

STARTING PITCHERS

John Rauch (SP) free agent from Orioles
Jason Vargas (SP) free agent from Angels,

RELIEF PITCHERS

P.J. Walters (RP) free agent from Twins,
Chris Resop (RP) free agent from Athletics

Who Left:  

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
George Kottaras (C) traded to Cubs,
Irving Falu (SS) free agent to Brewers,
Jamey Carroll (3B) free agent to Nationals
Chris Getz (2B) free agent to Blue Jays
Carlos Pena (1B) free agent to Angels
Miguel Tejada (SS) unsigned free agent
Emilio Bonifacio (IF) released
OUTFIELDERS
None
STARTING PITCHERS
Ervin Santana (SP) unsigned free agent
RELIEF PITCHER
Will Smith (RP) trade to Brewers,
Winter Headlines:  
Wil Meyers wins Rookie of the Year while Shields struggled.
Slow 2013 start leads to disappointment despite strong finish.
What to Expect?:
Kansas City was excited last year and if it weren't for a slow start their high hopes may have come true.  If they can get consistency from their starters and get off to a decent start the Royals may be able to finish what they started last year.  The Tigers are not the sure thing they were last year and Cleveland is not as strong pitching wise as they were last year.  Kansas City has a legitimate chance to win this division if they avoid the slow start of last year.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
The Royals are the opposite of the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers.  Kansas City has worked on building their team from the minors up.  They have home grown talent like Moustakis, Butler, Hosmer and Cain.  In an age of teams built to resemble Super Teams, it would be nice to see the teams built like the old days succeed.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Royals Fans Want?:
As good as this team could have been last year (or the year before for that matter) they have consistently under achieved over the last few years.  They will need a full team effort to make it to the next step.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Jason Vargas had a few average seasons in Seattle.  After a 14-11, 3.85 ERA 2012, Vargas got a big one year deal from Anaheim and the Angels expected the stronger offense behind him to translate into a higher win total.  It didn't.  A poor Angels team effort, a few injuries and a 9-8 record led to disappointment and Vargas's exit from town.  There will be considerably less pressure on Vargas in KC, similar to the lower expectations he experienced in Seattle, but don't expect Vargas to become an ace.
Expect Great Things From:
James Shields earned the name "Big Game James" in Tampa Bay for a reason.  He was generally acknowledged as the leader of the Rays.  He pitched well last year  and often was a hard luck loser.  His 13-9 record was deceptive as he pitched well enough to win several games he ended up losing early in the year.  If Shields is able to win the close games he lost last year, the Royals can likely punch their post season tickets.
Prediction: 2nd place in AL Central.  AL Wild Card

Cleveland Indians logo Courtesy of Sports Logos.net

Cleveland Indians:

Who's New:  

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
David Adams (IF) free agent from Yankees,
Elliott Johnson (IF) free agent from Braves
OUTFIELDERS
David Murphy (OF) free agent from Rangers,
Jeff Francoeur (OF) free agent from Giants
STARTING PITCHERS
Shaun Marcum (SP) free agent from Mets,
Aaron Harang (SP) free agent from Mets
RELIEF PITCHERS
Colt Hynes (RP) trade from Padres,
J.C. Ramirez (RP) free agent from Phillies,
Mike Zagurski (RP) free agent from Yankees,
John Axford (RP) free agent from Cardinals,
Josh Outman (RP) trade from Rockies
David Aardsma (RP) free agent from Yankees
Scott Atchison (RP) free agent from Mets

Who Left: 

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Lou Marson (C) free agent to Phillies,
Omir Santos (C) free agent to Pirates
Kelly Shoppach (C) unsigned free agent
OUTFIELDERS
Drew Stubbs (OF) trade to Rockies,
Jason Kubel (OF) free agent to Twins,
Ezequiel Carrera  (OF) free agent to Tigers
STARTING PITCHERS
Scott Kazmir (SP) free agent to A's,
Ubaldo Jimenez (SP) free agent to Orioles
RELIEF PITCHERS
Joe Smith (RP) free agent to Angels,
Matt Albers (RP) free agent to Houston,
Chris Perez (RP) free agent to Dodgers,
Clay Repada (RP) free agent to Angels
Brett Myers (RP) realeased
Rich Hill (RP) free agent to Red Sox
Winter Headlines:  
Francona wins Manager of the Year over Farrell.
Carlos Santana rumored to move to third, oddly all back up catchers sign elsewhere
Masterson masterful, Jimenez and Kazmir leave the reservation
What to Expect?:
Terry Francona is clearly one of the best managers of this generation.  He took a Philadelphia Phillies team that was short on talent to the brink of a division title in 2001. He took the Red Sox from the lovable losers to the dominant team in the league. He took the Cleveland Indians from a struggling, underachieving team to a playoff berth in one year.  The Indians have lost some talent but expect Francona to have this team fighting for a playoff spot.  The problem is there may not be enough pitching here to get the success they saw last year.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
Over this offseason I have had the opportunity to watch some old games available on line.  Two of the games I have watched were Game 6 of the 1995 World Series and Game 7 of the 1997 World Series.  In both games, Cleveland's hopes were crushed when it appeared that they were on the brink of success.  In 2007 the Indians led the Red Sox three games to one in the ALCS when the Red Sox made a miraculous come back.  The Indians history (with the exception of 1920 and 1948) is one of near misses.  It would be nice to see the tribe come out on top after years of close calls.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Indians Fans Want?:
The Indians were able to win despite a shaky pitching staff for most of the year.  Justin Masterson was spectacular but Jimenez was inconsistent and there was little behind them.  The Indians have lost Scott Kazmir to the A's and Jimenez to the Orioles and have no one at this point to replace them.  The starting rotation could be the achilles heel.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
David Murphy was a strong signing by the Indians. He is a good outfielder and should fit in nicely in their lineup.  He could be a nice complement to Michael Bourn at the top of the lineup but his power numbers are not eye popping and his average is usually in the mid .200's. Murphy is a good player but don't expect him to be the piece that puts Cleveland over the top.
Expect Great Things From:
Asdrubal Cabrerra had an off season last year but he is one of the more under rated Shortstops in the league. Cabrerra's numbers were down but he still contributed greatly to the success of the team.  Expect Cabrera to have a bounce back year and help this team stay in contention.
Is This His Last Chance?:
The Indians took a chance in signing John Axford.  Although he had a decent end to the season with the Cardinals, Axford has not been the same pitcher he was when he helped the Brewers reach the NLCS.  If he does not find a way to regain that effectiveness he may not have another chance to close.
Prediction:3rd in AL Central

Minnesota Twins Logo Courtesy of Sports Logos.net

Minnesota Twins:

Who's New:  

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

Kurt Suzuki (C) free agent from Athletics

OUTFIELDERS

Jason Kubel (OF) free agent from Indians,

STARTING PITCHERS

Rickey Nolasco (SP) free agent from Dodgers,
Phil Hughes (SP) free agent from Yankees,
Kris Johnson (SP) trade from Pirates
RELIEF PITCHERS
Matt Guerier (RP) free agent from Cubs

Who Left:  

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

OUTFIELDERS

Clete Thomas (OF) free agent to to Phillies,

STARTING PITCHERS

Liam Hendricks (SP) waiver claim by Cubs,

RELIEF PITCHERS

Cody Eppley (RP) free agent to Pirates,
Pedro Hernandez (RP) free agent to Rockies,
P.J. Walters (RP) free agent to Royals,
Duke Welker (RP) traded to Pirates
Winter Headlines: 
Joe Mauer moves to 1B
Pitching staff completely rebuilt
What to Expect?:
Twins fans certainly should expect improvement.  For one thing the rotation is set this year, while last year it was up in the air from day one.  Improvement and a vision for the future are the keys for this Twins team. A playoff berth is probably a very long shot but a third place finish and a winning record is probably a better goal.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
There's an old saying that class shows.  The Twins certainly fit that saying.  This organization, dating back to their days in Washington, have always had a classy reputation.  If nothing else you can look at the key players in franchise history: Killebrew, Puckett, Viola, Kaat, Grant, Mauer and Mourneau.  Or you can look at the two men who have led this team for the last 30 years: Kelly and Gardenhire.  I am not a Twins fan but with the class that this organization always displays it is hard to root against them.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Twins Fans Want?:
The Twins have certainly done what they can to add veteran leadership to the pitching rotation with Hughes and Nolasco to join Pelfrey.  The Twins are certainly an improved team but with Cleveland, Kansas City and Detroit in this division it would be hard to imagine the Twins finishing in a playoff spot this year.  This team has a very strong farm system with many players a few years away from contributing.  This could be a strong team in the future, but this year would be a surprise.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Phil Hughes has played with some legends in New York and the expectations for Hughes when he came to the big leagues were tremendous.  He has not lived up to the expectations, likely because the expectations were unfairly high.  Hughes is a very good pitcher but he had a terrible 2013 (4-14, 5.19 ERA) and he is certainly better than that.  Expect Hughes to help improve the Twins staff but don't expect 20 wins..
Expect Great Things From:
Joe Mauer is the face of this franchise and has been for several years.  If you had to choose a Mount Rushmore of Minnesota Twins it would probably be Harmon Killebrew, Kirby Puckett, Jim Kaat and Joe Mauer.  Mauer will be moving to first base this season to avoid the daily pounding his body takes when catching.  Expect the health benefits to help translate into better offensive numbers.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Similar to Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey had high expectations when he joined the Mets in 2006.  The Mets were a strong playoff contender at the time and it was hoped he would develop into the new ace.  Instead he has struggled.  A big part of his struggles have to do with the poor teams he has played with but there is only so much blame you can shift for 7-13 and 5-13 seasons.  Pelfrey certainly has an opportunity to be the leader of this team but he may not have many chances left to prove he can do it.
Prediction:4th place in AL Central

Chicago White Sox Logo Courtesy of Sports Logos.net

Chicago White Sox
Free Agents:  Ramon Truncoso (RP).

Who's New: 

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

Jose Abreu (1B) free agent,
Alex Liddi (1B) free agent from Orioles,
OUTFIELDERS
Adam Eaton (OF) trade from Diamondbacks,
Matt Davidson (OF) trade from Diamondbacks,
STARTING PITCHERS
RELIEF PITCHERS
Jairo Ascencio (RP) free agent from Orioles,
Zach Putnam (RP) free agent from Cubs,
Ronald Belisario (RP) free agent from Dodgers,
Scott Downs (RP) free agent from Braves
Mitchell Boggs (RP) free agent from Rockies

Who Left: 

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

Travis Ishikawa (1B) free agent to Pirates,
Angel Sanchez (IF) released
Bryan Anderson (C) free agent to Reds

OUTFIELDERS

Addison Reed (OF) trade from Diamondbacks,
Dewayne Wise (OF) released

STARTING PITCHERS

Hector Santiago (SP) trade to Angels, 

Gavin Floyd (SP) free agent to Braves, 

RELIEF PITCHERS
Ramon Truoncoso (RP) unsigned free agent

Winter Headlines:  
The Big Hurt gets a big honor (Frank Thomas voted into the Hall of Fame)
What to Expect?:
It is hard to believe that this team was in first place for the greater part of the 2012 season.  Clearly the loss of Jake Peavey and A.J. Pierszynski and the under achievement of Alex Rios hurt this team last year.  They certainly are a better team by adding Adam Eaton and Jose Abreu but don't expect  this team to contend this season.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn are veterans nearing the end of their career.  Each has made major contributions to the White Sox organization and although Konerko won a title with the 2005 White Sox, Dunn is still looking for his first ring.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way White Sox Fans Want?:
This team just doesn't have the pitching to compete in this division.  There were few improvements made to a bad team from last year while even the Twins looked to improve their staff.  This could be a very long season and may lead to a major shift in identity for the team.  This could be the last year for Dunn and Konerko.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Adam Eaton came to the White Sox in a trade with the Diamondbacks.  Eaton has tremendous talent and a lot was expected from him in Arizona.  The problem is that the talent level around him in Chicago is much less than in Arizona.  He won't have the support with the White Sox that he would have enjoyed with the Diamondbacks.
Expect Great Things From:
Chris Sale is the clear ace of this team.  In fact, on most teams he would be the ace.  Although his 11-14 record was more a reflection on the team behind him, Sale had a tremendous year.  Expect Sale to continue his growth with a better season and better record.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko are nearing the end of their careers.  Konerko considered retirement but decided to come back for at least one more year.  At some point the Sox will need to build a new identity without Dunn and Konerko.  Sox fans should enjoy the ride while it lasts.
Prediction:5th Place in AL Central.

*-Please be aware that these predictions are based on the rosters as set in the middle of February.  There are still several key free agents unsigned which could alter these previews.  Also, injuries during spring training could alter my outlook.  Don't miss the A.L. East preview of last week.  Check back next week for the AL West Preview and continue following to see my final predictions at the start of the season.

TRIVIA QUESTION:

Major League Baseball went to the three divisional format in 1994.  Since that time the teams in the American League Central have changed slightly after expansion and realignment.  What teams have played in the American League Central?

Answer to Last Week's Trivia Question:

Major League Baseball created the American League East in 1969.  The first team from the division to win the World Series was the Orioles in 1970.  They would also win the World Series in 1983.  (That makes 2).  The Red Sox have won the World Series twice (2004 and 2007) bringing the total to 4.  The Blue Jays won back to back World Series titles in 1992 and 1993 bringing the total to 6.  The Tigers won the 1984 World Series as a member of the AL East raising the number to 7.  The Yankees have won the most World Series coming out of this division.  The pinstripes won the 1977, 1978, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2009 World Series as a member of the division doubling the number to 14 for the total answer.