Showing posts with label Philadelphia Phillies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Philadelphia Phillies. Show all posts

Sunday, February 15, 2015

2015 National League East Preview

***The Division Preview that follows is not betting advice in any way shape or form.  Please do not bet any money based in any part on these predictions.***

Don't forget to check back next week for the National League Central Preview. 




Washington Nationals:
Who's New: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Clint Robinson, 1B (Free Agent from Dodgers)
Ian Stewart, SS (Free Agent from Angels)
Steven LeRud, C (Free Agent from Braves)
Omir Santos, C (Free Agent from Pirates)
Mike Carp, UT  (Free Agent from Rangers)
Dan Butler, C (Trade from Red Sox)
Yunel Escobar, IF (Trade from Athletics)
Dan Uggla, 2B (Free Agent from Giants)
OUTFIELDERS

STARTING PITCHER
Eric Fonataro, SP (Waiver Claim from Cardinals)
Max Scherzer, SP (Free Agent from Tigers)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Bruce Billings, RP (Free Agent from Dodgers)
Heath Bell, RP (Free Agent from Yankees)
Evan Meek, RP (Free Agent from Orioles)
Casey Janssen, RP (Free Agent from Blue Jays)
Who Left: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Adam LaRoche, 1B (Free Agent to White Sox)
Asdrubel Cabrera, 2B (Free Agent to Rays)
Gregg Dobbs, UT (Unsigned Free Agent)
OUTFIELDERS
Stephen Souza, OF (Trade to Rays)
Nate Schierholtz, OF (Free Agent to Rangers)
Scott Hairston, OF (Unsigned Free Agent)
STARTING PITCHERS
Aaron Laffey, SP (Free Agent to Rockies)
Ross Ohlendorf, SP (Free Agent to Nationals)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Ross Detwiler, RP (Trade to Rangers)
Tyler Clippard, RP (Trade to Athletics)
Ryan Mattheus, RP (Free Agent to Angels)
Rafael Soriano, RP (Unsigned Free Agent)

Winter Headlines:
Scherzer adds to what is now considered the best rotation in baseball.
Loss of LaRoche could mean shift in power.
What to Expect?:
Nationals fans should expect the best.  Defensively they are strong up the middle with Ramos, Desmond, Espinoza and Span.  The pitching rotation of Strasburg, Scherzer,, Zimmerman, Gonzalez and Fister is potentially as good as we have seen in a long time.  With the Braves and Phillies seemingly unloading everyone the Nats should have an easy road to October. What they do when they get there is the question.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
Baseball in the nation's capital has not seen a World Series since 1933.  Granted a large part of that time period they didn't have a team.  Still, the Nats have built this group from the ground up and have made (mostly) smart baseball decisions.  It would be nice to see it pay off and see the Fall Classic return to the land of Walter Johnson and Joe Cronin.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Nationals Fans Want?:
Getting to the playoffs is one thing, the Nats have done that.  Advancing is another.  With the amount of money spent, the team seems to be putting greater emphasis on the results.  Although the Braves and Phillies are rebuilding for the future, the Marlins and Mets are in a position to surprise a lot of people.  The Nationals need to stay healthy and keep a healthy eye on the rear view mirror.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
If we include his minor league stops, Jayson Werth is entering his 18th professional season.  That type of wear and tear can slow a player down over the long run, especially someone like Werth who plays all out all the time. You can expect Werth to be a team leader, near the top of the team roster in many important catgories and a major part of any success that the team has.  Just don't expect an MVP award.
Expect Great Things From:
I say this every year but Stephen Strasburg has the potential to be a truly great pitcher.  Strasburg had a season below his normal standards and was technically the 4th best starter on the team.  With some added protection in Scherzer, expect Strasburg to rise to the competition and have a Cy Young caliber season.
Prediction: 1st Place in NL East



Miami Marlins

Who's New:
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Reid Brigniac, SS (Free Agent from Philies
Dee Gordon, SS (Trade from Dodgers)
Miguel Rojas, 1B (Trade from Dodgers)
Martin Prado, IF (Trade from Yankees)
Don Kelly, IF (Free Agent from Tigers)
OUTFIELDERS
Cole Gillespie, OF (Free Agent from Blue Jays)
Michael Morse, OF (Free Agent from Giants)
Scott Sizemore, OF (Free Agent from Yankees)
Tyler Colvin, OF (Free Agent from Giants)
Ichiro Suzuki, OF (Free Agent from Yankees)
David Adams, OF (Free Agent from Orioles)
STARTING PITCHERS
Dan Haren, SP (Trade from Dodgers)
Mat Latos, SP (Trade from Reds)
Andre Rienzo, SP (Trade from White Sox)
David Phelps, SP (Trade from Yankees)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Ryan Reid, RP (Free Agent from Mets)
Aaron Crow, RP (Trade from Royals)
Preston Claiborne, RP (Waiver Claim from Yankees)
Nick Masset, RP (Free Agent from Rockies)
Vin Mazarro, RP (Free Agent from Pirates)
Who Left:
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Kyle Skipworth, C (Free Agent to Reds)
Juan Diaz, SS (Free Agent to White Sox)
Enrique Hernandez, IF (Trade to Dodgers)
Garrett Jones, 1B (Trade to Yankees)
Casey McGehee, 3B (Free Agent to Giants)
Rafael Furcal, SS (Unsigned Free Agent)
OUTFIELDERS
Brian Bogusevic, OF (Free Agent to Phillies)
Joe Benson, OF (Free Agent to Braves)
Reed Johnson, OF (Unsigned Free Agent)
STARTING PITCHERS
Brian Flynn, SP (Trade to Royals)
Andrew Heaney, SP (Trade to Angels)
Anthony DeSclafani, SP (Trade to Reds)
Kevin Slowey, SP (Free Agent to Phillies)
Nathan Eovaldi, SP (Trade to Yankees)
Brad Penny, SP (Free Agent to White Sox)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Alex Sanabia, RP (Free Agent to Angels)
Chris Hatcher, RP (Trade to Dodgers)
Dan Jennings, RP (Trade to White Sox)
Arquimedes Caminero, RP (Trade to Pirates)
Kevin Gregg, RP (Free Agent to Reds)

Winter Headlines:
Marlins spear some key players, look to swim up stream.
What to Expect?:
I am a little shocked at myself for thinking this, and I will probably look back at this and laugh at myself, but this could be a competitive team.  At the end of last year the Marlins actually had a playoff chance heading into the last few weeks.  And that was without reigning Rookie of the Year Jose Fernandez.  The Marlins have added some major pieces this off sesaon, key among them Dee Gordon, Martin Prado and Mat Latos.  If things go right the Marlins could play into October.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
This could be an exciting time for the Marlins.  This time last year the Marlins were generally considered the bottom of the barrel but these young players have shown that they can surprise some people, despite the perceived lack of support from ownership.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Marlins Fans Want?:
There are two big pieces to this team: Stanton and Fernandez.  Unfortunatley both are big questions.  Stanton was injured in a frightening at bat near the end of the year and Fernandez missed most of last season.  Stanton is one of the best players in the game but it is yet to be seen how he will come back and Fernandez is still recovering from last years injury.  The team hopes to have him back by the beginning of June.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Dee Gordon had an All Star season last year and appeared to finally be fulfilling his potential in Los Angeles.  That was with a lineup stacked from top to bottom to help get him in to score.  The Marlins have a good young team but they do not have the same bats that the Dodgers had last year to help.  Expect Gordon to have a high on base percentage and be near the top of the league in steals but he may not be the same Dee Gordon from last year's Dodgers.
Expect Great Things From:
Ichiro Suzuki signed late this offseason with the Marlins after having extensive talks with the Orioles and Mariners.  Suzuki will likely be a bench player and will have to fight for playing time in a crowded young outfield.  Still, Ichiro is one of the best players this game has seen in a very very long time,
Is This His Last Chance?:
Dan Haren has been a good pitcher in the league for a long time and until 2012 he was relatively injury free. But a back injury in 2012 has led to a decline in production for Haren that saw him bounce from Anaheim to Washington to Los Angeles with little consistency.  The Dodgers traded Haren to the Marlins in the offseason and he has made it clear he prefers to pitch on the west coast.  There have been few teams jumping at the opportunity and if he doesn't pitch well in his time in Miami, he may not get a second chance.
Prediction: 2d Place in NL East




New York Mets

Who's New:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Johnny Monell, C (Free Agent from Dodgers)

OUTFIELDERS
Michael Cuddyer, OF (Free Agent from Rockies)
Alex Castellanos (Free Agent from Padres)
John Mayberry, Jr (Free Agent from Blue Jays)
STARTING PITCHERS

RELIEF PITCHERS
Duane Below, RP (Free Agent from Tigers)
Who Left:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Josh Satin, 1B (Free Agent to Reds)
Miguel Socolovich, RP (Free Agent to Cardinals)
Taylor Teagarden, C (Free Agent to Cubs)
Omar Quintanilla, SS (Free Agent to Rockies)
OUTFIELDERS
Andrew Brown, OF (Waiver Claim by A's)
Eric Young, Jr, OF (Free Agent to Braves)
Bobby Abreu, OF (Unsigned Free Agent)
STARTING PITCHERS
John Lannan, SP (Free Agent to Marlins)
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP (Unsigned Free Agent)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Miguel Socolovich, RP (Free Agent to Cardinals)
Ryan Reid, RP (Free Agent to Marlins)
Jose Valverde, RP (Free Agent to Padres)
Germen Gonzalez, RP (Trade to Yankees)
Dana Eveland, RP (Free  Agent to Red Sox)


Winter Headlines: 
Turning the Mess around?  With young group Mets could be moving in the right direction.
What to Expect?:
This team is probably a few pieces and a few years away from competing but they certainly appear to be heading in the right direction.  The key seems to be health.  David Wright, Travis D'Arnaud and Matt Harvey were all hit by the injury bug last year.  They will need to stay healthy to get a real idea of what they are capable of for the future.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
The Mets are potentially building something special.  They have a lot of strong young players on the roster and a lot of young talent in the system.  With the Braves and Phillies trading everyone away the Mets may be the new dominant force in the East.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Mets Fans Want?:
There are still a lot of missing pieces here.  Shortstop is not settled.  The bullpen is a huge question mark.  The health of Matt Harvey and David Wright are a concern.  This season is an in between season for the Mets.  A playoff run would be nice but is more realistically a year or two in the future.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Fans in Minnesota knew for a long time that Michael Cuddyer had talent and he finally showed it in his last two years in Colorado.  Cuddyer could be a strong influence on the team and help them reach the post season over the next few years but don't expect him to be an MVP.
Expect Great Things From:
The starting rotation is potentially a nice mix of young arms.  Between Jacob deGrom, Dylan Gee, Zach Wheeler and Matt Harvey there is a world of potential on this staff.  Waiting in the wings is Noah Syndergaard who will start the season in Las Vegas.  If the Mets somehow manage to stay in the race (which is not unthinkable) Syndergaard could see action at the big league level.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Bartolo Colon won 15 games last year and threw 200 innings for the Mets.  He also lost 13 and had an ERA over 4.00  Colon is now in his 40's and although he is clearly the veteran leadership on this pitching staff, how long will his aging body hold out?
Prediction: 3rd Place in NL East.



 

Atlanta Braves
Who's New?: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Eli Whiteside, C (Free Agent from Cubs)
Pedro Ciraico, IF (Free Agent from Royals)
Alberto Calaspo, 3B (Free Agent from Athletics)
Jace Peterson, IF (Trade from Padres)
A.J. Pierzynski, C(Free Agent from Cardinals)
Emilio Bonifacio, SS (Free Agent from White Sox)
Kelly Johnson, IF (Free Agent from Orioles)
John Buck, C (Free Agent from Angels)
OUTFIELDERS
Zoilo Almonte, OF (Free Agent from Yankees)
Nick Markakis,OF (Free Agent from Orioles)
Joe Benson, OF (Free Agent from Marlins)
Eury Perez, OF (Waiver Claim from Mets)
Jonny Gomes, OF (Free Agent from Athletics)
Eric Young, Jr, OF (Free Agent from Mets)
STARTING PITCHERS
Shelby Miller, SP (Trade from Cardinals)
Chieng Ming Wang, SP (Free Agent from White Sox)
Greg Smith, SP (Free Agent from Phillies)
Wandy Rodriguez, SP (Free Agent from Pirates)
Eric Stults, SP (Free Agent from Padres)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Arodys Vizcaino, RP (Trade from Cubs)
Donnie Veal, RP (Free agent from White Sox)
Jim Johnson, RP (Free agent from Tigers)
Michael Kohn, RP (Free Agent from Rays)
Michael Fotynewicz, RP (Trade from Houston)
Josh Outman, RP (Free Agent from Yankees)
Jason Grilli, RP (Free Agent from Dodgers)
Josh Outman, RP (Free Agen from Yankees)
Ryan Butcher, RP (Free Agent from Dodgers)
David Carpenter, RP (Free Agent from Angels)
Jose Veras, RP (Free Agent from Astros)
Who Left?:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Tommy LaStella, 2B (Trade to Cubs)
Emilio Bonifacio, IF (Free Agent to White Sox)
Evan Gattis, C (Trade to Astros)
Steven LeRud, C (Free Agent to Nationals)
Ramiro Pena, IF (Free Agent to Padres)
Ryan Doumit, C (Unsigned Free Agent)
Gerald Laird, C (Free Agent to Diamondbacks)
Donnie Murphy, IF (Unsigned Free Agent)
OUTFIELDERS
Justin Upton, OF (Trade to Padres)
Jason Heyward, OF (Trade to Cardinals)
STARTING PITCHERS
Ervin Santana, SP (Free Agent from Twins)
Gavin Floyd, SP (Free Agent to Indians)
Kris Medlen, SP (Free Agent to Royals)
Aaron Harang, SP (Free Agent to Phillies)
Mitch Atkins, SP (Free Agent to Rangers)
David Hale, SP (Trade to Rockies)
Zach Stewart, SP (Free Agent to Angels)
Brandon Beachy, RP (Unsigned Free Agent)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Atahualpo Severino, RP (Free Agent to Angels)
Anthony Varvaro, RP (Trade to Red Sox)
Shreve Chasen, RP (Trade to Yankees)
David Carpenter, RP (Trade to Yankees)
Mitch Atkins, RP (Free Agent to Rangers)
Ryan Butcher, RP (Free Agent to Dodgers)
Pedro Beato, RP (Unsigned Free Agent)
Luis Perez, RP (Free Agent to Blue Jays)
Gus Schlosser, RP (Trade to Rockies)
Winter Headlines: 
Braves unload in offseason, get little back in return,
Outfield experiment is abandoned but is this a better alternative?
What to Expect?:
If you're a Braves fan have low expectations.  The Braves were a competitive team over the last 5 years, even putting some scares in the Phillies, Nationals, Giants and Dodgers.  That run seems to be coming to an end.  The experiment of the Hayward-Upton-Upton outfield has been marked down as a failure and the plethora of young arms have now been abandoned.  What is left is an outfield with one Upton, a lifetime Oriole with health questions and a prospect.  The infield is strong at the corners, average at Shortstop and an aging journeyman at second.  Their closer is one of the best in the game but he may have few opportunities to show it.  Expect the next few years to be a down turn.  But on the positive side:  they're in the same division as the Phillies.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
The Braves are almost certainly headed into a rebuilding phase.  Most of the young talent they counted on to spark a rebirth of the 1990s glory days have been shipped away.  The talent that is left could turn out to be in for a long, painful stretch/
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Braves Fans Want?:
It almost certainly won't turn out in favor of Braves fans.  The team is clearly in rebuilding mode and will have to hope for help from the minor league system.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Nick Markakis was a fan favorite in Baltimore for years and many Orioles fans were saddened by the fact that the team's rise to playoff contender coincided with injury filled years for Nick.  Markakis' best years are behind him (although, as an Orioles fan and fan of Markakis, I hope he proves me wrong).  You can expect Markakis to give 100% effort all the time and to be a positive influence in the clubhouse but don't expect him to lead the Braves into contention or to replace Heyward.
Expect Great Things From:
I probably said the same thing last year but Chris Johnson is a very under rated player at third base.  He has a hard job in replacing Chipper Jones but he quietly is a key piece in this team.  With few big names left expect Johnson to represent the Braves in the All Star Game
Is This His Last Chance?:
A.J. Pierszynski has a reputation for causing clubhouse problems.  It helps to explain why someone with that much talent has moved from the Twins to the Giants to the White Sox to the Rangers to the Red Sox to the Cardinals to the Braves.  To be fair though, he did contribute greatly to the success of the Giants and White Sox in his stays there so the reputation may be a bit exaggerated.  It isn't the first time that a guy's negative clubhouse presence has been overblown in Boston.  Regardless, that reputation has followed A.J. and if he does not correct it in Atlanta there may be little demand left for an aging grumpy Catcher.
Prediction: 4th place in NL East


Philadelphia Phillies

Who's New: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Chase D'Arnaud, SS (Free agent from Pirates)
Chris Nelson, 3B (Free Agent from Padres)
John Hester, C (Free Agent from Angels)
Cord Phelps, 2B (Free Agent from Orioles)
Chris McGuinness, 1B (Free Agent from Pirates)
Tyler Greene, IF (Free Agent from Padres)
OUTFIELDERS
Xavier Paul, OF (Free Agent from Diamondbacks)
Jeff Francoeur, OF (Free Agent from Padres)
Darren Mastroianni, OF (Free Agent from Blue Jays)
Brian Bogusevic, OF (Free Agent from Marlins)
Jordan Danks, OF (Waiver Claim from White Sox)
STARTING PITCHERS
Kevin Slowey, SP (Free Agent form Marlins)
Jeanmar Gomez, SP (Free Agent from Pirates)
Aaron Harang, SP (Free Agent from Braves)
Chad Billingsley, SP (Free Agent from Dodgers)
Anthony Vasquez, SP (Free Agent from Orioles)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Paul Clemens, RP (Free Agent from Houston)
Who Left: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Reid Brigniac, SS (Free Agent to Marlins)
Jimmy Rollins, SS (Trade to Dodgers)
Wil Nieves, C (Free Agent to Padres)
OUTFIELDERS
Marlon Byrd, OF (Trade to Reds)
Tony Gwynn, Jr (Unsigned Free Agent)
STARTING PITCHERS
A.J. Burnett, SP (Free Agent to Pirates)
Kyle Kendrick, SP (Free Agent to Rockies)
Greg Smith, SP (Free Agent to Braves)
RELIEF PITCHERS 
Brad Lincoln, RP (Free Agent to Pirates)
Antonio Bastardo, RP (Trade to Pirates)
Jeff Manship, RP (Free Agent to Indians)
B.J. Rosenberg, RP (Free Agent to Dodgers)
Jeremy Horst, RP (Free Agent to Dodgers)
Mike Adams, RP (Unsigned Free Agent)
Shawn Camp, RP (Unsigned Free Agent)
Winter Headlines:  
The end of an era.  Rollins gone. Howard, Papelbon, Hamels and Lee to follow?
What to Expect?:
Expect the worst.  This team still has talent but they are in full rebuilding mode.  It seems that Utley is the only untouchable.  For the last 15 years the Phillies have given their fans some great moments but for the next few years it could be a return to the days of Steve Jeltz, Von Hayes and Shane Rawley.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
The Phillies have never had a period of success this sustained before.  There was the nice run from 1976 through 1983 but this is something different.  This was special.  After an era of poor play this gave birth to a whole new generation of Phillies fans.  While I grew up with stories of the exploits of Schmidt, Carlton, Rose, Luzinski and Bowa, today's generation has grown up with the exploits of Rollins, Howard, Hamels, Utley and Ruiz.  Here's hoping that they can give the young generation one last run at something special.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Phillies Fans Want?:
To be fair, who's left?  From the championship teams of 2008 and 2009 only Ruiz, Howard, Utley, Hamels and Lee remain.  Of those 5 three have been mentioned in serious trade talks.  Phillies fans can only hope that the trades being made can bring positive results in return.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Chad Billingsley is a tremendously talented pitcher.  When he first arrived in the big leagues, knowing that Kershaw was coming right behind him,the Dodogers thought they had a new Koufax and Drysdale combination.  Unfortunately Billingsley's arm gave out and he has not had a full season since 2011. Billingsley is a classy guy and a good clubhouse presence, something this team could use with the loss of Rollins.  His effectiveness will be defined by the health of his arm.
Expect Great Things From:
Chase Utley is a Hall of Fame player.  Period.  He has shown over the years that he deserves to be mentioned with the greats of this organization like Klein, Ashburn and Schmidt.  Injuries have kept his amazing numbers lower than they could be but when all is said and done he is one of the most entertaining players to watch.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Ruben Amaro, Jr took over the Phillies at the end of the 2008 season and has benefitted from the team that Pat Gillick put together.  That is not to say that Amaro has not done a good job.  He certainly orchestrated the deals that brought Halladay, Polanco, Lee and Ibanez to town.  Each of those deals helped to extend the Phillies' run of success.  However, as the Phillies head into a clear rebuilding mode, will Amaro be able to see the results of his dealings over the last two years.
Prediction:5th place in NL East


*-Please be aware that these predictions are based on the rosters as set in the middle of February.  There are still several key free agents unsigned which could alter these previews.  Also, injuries during spring training could alter my outlook.  Check back next week for the NL Central Preview and continue following to see my final predictions at the start of the season.


TRIVIA QUESTION:
Giancarlo Stanton led the National League in Home Runs last year with 37.  Who was the last player from the NL East to lead the league in Home Runs?

Answer to Last Week's Question:
Ozzie Guillen spent a short time in a Tampa Bay Devil Ray uniform, as did everyone in last week's article.  Of those featured in last week's article only Manny Ramirez played for Ozzie.  Ramirez played in 24 games for the White Sox in 2010.  

Saturday, March 8, 2014

2014 National League East Preview

***The Division Preview that follows is not betting advice in any way shape or form.  Please do not bet any money based in any part on these predictions.***

Don't forget to check out the American League East, American League Central, and American League West Previews and check back next week for the National League Central Preview. 




Washington Nationals:
Who's New: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Brock Peterson (1B) free agent from Cardinals
Jamey Carroll (IF) free agent from Royals
Chris Snyder (C) free agent from Orioles
Koyie Hill (C) free agent from Cubs
Jamey Carroll (3B) free agent from Royals
Jose Lobaton (C) trade from Rays
OUTFIELDERS
Nate McLouth (OF) free agent from Orioles,
STARTING PITCHER
Doug Fister (SP) trade from Tigers
RELIEF PITCHERS
Daniel Stanage (RP) free agent from Angels,
Jerry Blevins (RP) trade from Athletics,
Luis Ayala (RP) free agent from Braves
Who Left: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Ferando Abad (IF) free agent to A's,
Ian Krol (C) trade to Tigers,
Steve Lombardozi (2B) trade to Tigers,
Chris Marrero (1B) free agent to Orioles
Chad Tracy (1B) free agent to Angels
OUTFIELDERS
STARTING PITCHERS
Dan Haren (SP) free agent to Dodgers,
Nathan Karns (SP) trade to Rays
RELIEF PITCHERS
Mark Lowe (RP) free agent to Rays,
Yunesky Maya (RP) free agent to Braves
Winter Headlines:
Regrets from last year. Slow start led to insurmountable deficit
Davey Johnson's out, Matt Williams is in as manager
What to Expect?:
This team is the clear class of this division.  They have certainly improved with the addition of Doug Fister to the rotation, which was already potentially the best in the league.  With Strasburg, Gonzales, Zimmerman, Detwiler and now Fister the Nationals are set to make a deep run in the playoffs. Their offense could be a bit of an issue but their defense is solid.  They even made some quiet, great additions late in the offseasn by adding Jamey Carroll and Jose Lobaton.  Carroll will quietly, professionally go about his business and will quietly help this team in ways the casual fan won't notice.  Now if they can avoid the slow start from last season they may do what was expected of them in 2013.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
The Nationals have had a tough history full of under achievement, poor teams and unfulfilled expectations.  For players like Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth and Stephen Strasburg who have struggled through the worst of times with the Nats, it would be nice to see them fulfill their potential.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Nationals Fans Want?:
Matt Williams may be a great manager but only time will tell.  The Nationals seem to have a great rotation but some how this team always seems to underachieve.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Ryan Zimmerman has had a great career.  Not a Hall of Fame career but a solid, respectable career which puts him on the Nationals Mount Rushmore.  Injuries and age have started to take their toll and it would be nice to see someone who has put so much effort into creating something special in DC get something back but his best days appear to be behind him.
Expect Great Things From:
Stephen Strasburg has improved every year since joining the Majors and you can expect him to continue to improve. His 8-9 record last year was deceptive as he certainly pitched well enough to win more games.  If the Nationals offense rebounds this year you can expect Strasburg to chase 20 wins for the first time in his career.
Prediction: 1st Place in NL East


 

Atlanta Braves
Who's New?: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Steven LeRud (C) free agent from Phillies,
OUTFIELDERS
STARTING PITCHERS
Gavin Floyd (SP) free gent from White Sox,
RELIEF PITCHERS
Yunesky Maya (RP) free agent from Nationals
Who Left?:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Brian McCann (C) free agent to Yankees,
Blake DeWitt (3B) released
Paul Janish (SS) free agent to Rockies
Eliot Johnson (IF) free agent to Indians
OUTFIELDERS
Reed Johnson (OF) free agent to Marlins
STARTING PITCHERS
Tim Hudson (SP) free agent to Giants,
Paul Maholm (SP) free agent to Dodgers
RELIEF PITCHERS
Scott Downs (RP) free agent to White Sox
Kameron Lowe (RP) free agent to Giants
Eric O'Flaherty (RP) free agent to Athletics
Christian Martinez (RP) released
Luis Ayala (RP) free agent to Nationals
Winter Headlines: 
The Roads out of town are crowded but few people are taking the road in. (The Braves lost several key players but don't make any major additions).
Freeman is anything but free for the Braves. (Freddie Freeman signs long term deal with team record amount)
What to Expect?:
The Braves had a great start to last season, sprinting out of the gate to a 15-5 record.  They slowed down towards the middle of the season but picked up again towards the end, running away with the Eastern Division.  They struggled in the playoffs against a strong Dodgers team ending a disappointing season.    The Braves return a largely changed team and hope to get more out of the moves they made last off season.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
The Braves organization has been one of the most consistently competitive teams over the last 20+ years but have only one World Series title to show for it.  The team became an overnight success in 1991 and hard luck losers in the 1991 and 1992 World Series.  The team made 13 straight post season appearances and won only one World Series.  The team has built a new core group of young players and are set to make another long term run.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Braves Fans Want?:
The Braves have lost several players.  The two major losses are Tim Hudson, the veteran leader of the pitching staff, and Brian McCann, the veteran All Star Catcher.  The Braves still have a hole at second base (Dan Uggla has struggled since signing a big contract) and face questions of effectiveness with Gattis behind the plate and B.J. Upton in center.  The biggest question is the rotation.  Losing Hudson and Maholm, the two veteran leaders, could lead to a big drop off in the win column.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Justin Upton got off to an amazing start last year and was a big reason for the quick start of the team.  He was not able to keep that pace (no one could ever be expected to keep that pace for a whole season) and fell back to an average season.  You can expect Upton to be a big contributor to any success the Braves might have but don't expect him to win an MVP.
Expect Great Things From:
Jason Heyward has only been in the league for a few short years but they have been some truly great years.  Heyward has improved continuously and even continued to hit after his frightful injury last year.  Heyward is one of the best hitters in the game and Braves fans will hopefully enjoy watching him play for years to come.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Dan Uggla has struggled since joining the Braves, although he has had a few shining moments.  His numbers and production dropped enough last year that he was left off the post season roster.  Uggla has two years left on his contract but how long can the Braves keep him if his numbers don't improve?
Prediction: 2nd place in NL East


Philadelphia Phillies
Who's New: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Reid Brignac (SS) free agent from Yankees,
Wil Nieves (C) free agent from Diamondbacks, 
Lou Marson (C) free agent from Indians, 
OUTFIELDERS
Marlon Byrd (OF)free agent from Pirates,
Clete Thomas (OF) free agent from Twins,
Jeff Manship (OF) free agent from Rockies,
Dave Sappelt (OF) free agent from Cubs
STARTING PITCHERS
Roberto Hernandez (SP) free agent from Rays,
Chad Gaudin (SP) free agent from Giants
A.J. Burnett (SP) Free agent from Pirates
RELIEF PITCHERS
Shawn Camp (RP) free agent from Cubs,
Brad Lincoln (RP) trade from Blue Jays,
Sean O'Sullivan (P) free agent from Padres,
Chris Bootcheck (RP) free agent from Yankees,
Who Left: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Steve LeRud (C) free agent to Braves
Erik Kratz (C) trade to Blue Jays
Michael Martinez (IF) free agent to Pirates,
Roger Bernadina (IF) free agent to Reds
Pete Orr (IF) free agent to Brewers
OUTFIELDERS
Casper Wells (OF) free agent to Cubs,
Laynce Nix (OF) released
STARTING PITCHERS
Roy Halladay (SP) retired, 
John Lannan (SP) free agent to Mets
Zach Miner (SP) free agent to Mariners
RELIEF PITCHERS 
J.C. Ramirez (RP) free agent to Indians,
Chad Durbin (RP) released
Winter Headlines:  
Is the window closed?
No Halladay. No Chance?
What to Expect?:
What was once a team on the verge of a dynasty is now on the verge of becoming a collection of relics.  Although Utley had another strong season, 2013 was a disaster for this team.  Halladay, Ruiz and Howard all missed time and the Phils never were really in the race.  Phillies fans may get one last push out of this aging group but don't count on it.  Utley and Hamels have already missed time this spring.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
Phillies fans are heading into the tail end of the Golden Age of Phillies baseball.  For a team that has been around since the birth of the National League it seems odd to say it but the last ten years have clearly been the best period of the franchise's history.  As Utley, Rollins, Howard, Hamels, Ruiz and Lee age it would be nice to see some of them go out with a bang.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Phillies Fans Want?:
This team is clearly on the decline and the farm system does not appear to have enough to replenish or replace the aging stars.  Hamels will not be ready for opening day and Utley is still having injury issues. If the Phillies are not in contention for a playoff spot by the trading deadline some of the veteran pieces may be moved.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Marlon Byrd did a lot to help the Pirates reach the playoffs but Byrd has struggled for several seasons leading up to last year.  Byrd certainly may have an impact in Philadelphia but don't expect him to lead the Phillies to the World Series.
Expect Great Things From:
Chase Utley is clearly one of the greatest Phillies to ever play the game.  Utley may not be able to lead the Phillies to the World Series but Phillies fans can expect to see Utley perform like a future Hall of Famer for as long as his body holds out.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Jimmy Rollins has been the leader of the Phillies team since he entered the league in 2000.  Rollins has given Phillies fans memories that will be talked about for generations but as he gets older the chances for him to make more memories of that level decreases. How much longer can Rollins play?
Prediction:3rd place in NL East


New York Mets
Who's New:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Tyler Teagarden (C) free agent from Orioles
OUTFIELDERS
Chris Young (OF) free agent from A's,
Curtis Granderson (OF) free agent from Yankees,
STARTING PITCHERS
Bartolo Colon (SP) free agent from Athletics,
John Lannan (SP) free agent from Phillies
RELIEF PITCHERS
Kyle Farnsworth (RP) free agent from Pirates
Jose Valverde (RP) free agent from Tigers
Who Left:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Justin Turner (IF) free agent to Dodgers
OUTFIELDERS
Jordany Valdespino (OF) free agent to Marlins
Rick Ankiel (OF) retired
STARTING PITCHERS
 LaTroy Hawkins (SP) free agent to Rockies
Shaun Marcum (SP) free agent to Indians
Aaron Harang (SP) free agent to Indians
RELIEF PITCHERS
Greg Burke (RP) free agent to Rockies
David Aardsma (RP) free agent to Indians
Scott Atchison (RP) free agent to Indians
Tim Byrdak (RP) unsigned free agent.
Pedro Feliciano (RP) unsigned free agent
Frank Francisco (RP) unsigned free agent
Winter Headlines: 
With singing of Colon and Granderson which direction is this team headed?
What to Expect?:
Mets fans can be happy that the team seems to be improving and building a strong foundation on young players like Matt Harvey and Travis d'Arnaud but don't expect the playoffs this year.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
Mets fans have seen this team struggle in recent years.  The ownership group has been stuck with money problems that hampered the rebuilding process. The team seems to have turned a corner and are heading towards building a strong foundation.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Mets Fans Want?:
Adding Granderson and Colon will definitely help the team improve but there are still a lot of holes (specifically at Catcher until d'Arnaud fully develops and the middle infield).  The Mets are moving in the right direction but they may still be a few years away.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Curtis Granderson has been an American League superstar for nearly a decade but as we saw with B.J. Upton in Atlanta last year there can still sometimes be an adjustment period when switching leagues.  Granderson should still be productive in the NL but don't expect him to spark a playoff run, especially with the lack of support in the lineup.
Expect Great Things From:
David Wright is truly a great player.  He has suffered with the Mets organization for his entire career. Wright will continue to be a great player, and may even benefit from the presence of Granderson.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Ike Davis has shown flashes of great play but his inconsistency has landed him in the dog house with the Mets front office.  He has been the subject of several trade rumors over the last few months and if he is unable to fulfill his potential he may be playing somewhere else soon.
Prediction: 4th Place in NL East.


Miami Marlins
Who's New:
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Jarod Saltalamachia (C) free agent from Red Sox,
Garrett Jones (1B) free agent from Pirates,
Jordany Valdespino (IF) free agent from Mets
Ty Wigginton (IF) free agent from Cardinals
Jeff Baker (IF) free agent from Rangers
OUTFIELDERS
 Brian Bogosevich (OF) trade from Cubs,
Reed Johnson (OF) free agent from Braves
STARTING PITCHERS
RELIEF PITCHERS
Carter Capps (RP) trade from Mariners
Rodriguez Henry Alberto (RP) free agent from Cubs
Carlos Marmol (RP) free agent from Dodgers
Chaz Roe (RP) free agent from Rangers
Who Left:
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Chris Valaika (IF)free agent to Cubs,
 Logan Morrison (1B) trade to Mariners,
Miguel Oliva (C) free agent to Dodgers
Koyie Hill (C) free agent to Marlins
Casey Kotchman (1B) released
OUTFIELDERS
Justin Ruggiano (OF) trade to Cubs,
Chris Coughlan (OF) free agent to Cubs
Matt Diaz (OF) retired
Austin Kearns (OF) unsigned free agent
STARTING PITCHERS
RELIEF PITCHERS
Zach Phillips (RP) free agent to Japan,
Chad Qualls (RP) free agent to Astros,
Ryan Webb (RP) free agent to Orioles,
Duane Below (RP) free agent to Tigers
John Maine (RP) unsigned free agent
What to Expect?:
With the exception of Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez there is little talent on this team.  Last year was said to be Stanton's audition for the trade deadline but injuries and a slow first half kept Stanton in Miami.  There is little chance that this year will turn out better and more likely could be worse than last year.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
While the ownership group has appeared to have betrayed the fan base the players are still giving a full effort.  For players stuck in Miami it is a sad season knowing that there is little chance of winning and little support from the front office.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Marlins Fans Want?:
There is little talent on this team and little support from the front office.  Suffice it to say there is very little chance of competing this year or in the near future.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Jose Fernandez won the rookie of the year award last year and should be able to continue his success but don't expect him to lead this team out of the cellar. There is little talent behind him in the rotation and the bullpen is shaky enough that he may often lose games that he should win.
Expect Great Things From:
Giancarlo Stanton, if healthy, has the chance to be a special player.  It would be helpful if he had some bigger bats in the lineup but regardless he should impress the Miami fans.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Rafael Furcal has been one of the best Shortstops in the league for nearly a decade, though he rarely gets credit.  For years with the Dodgers and later a few years in St.Louis, Furcal was the spark that ignited the offense on multiple playoff teams.  Unfortunately, Furcal does not have the talent around him in Miami that it would take to ignite a playoff run in Miami.
Prediction: 5th Place in NL East

*-Please be aware that these predictions are based on the rosters as set in the middle of February.  There are still several key free agents unsigned which could alter these previews.  Also, injuries during spring training could alter my outlook.  Check back next week for the AL Central Preview and continue following to see my final predictions at the start of the season.


TRIVIA QUESTION:
Jose Fernandez of the Marlins won the 2013 Rookie of the Year.  Since the creation of the National League East in 1969, how many times has the Rookie of the Year winner come from the National League East (include Jose Fernandez)?

Answer to Last Week's Trivia Question:
The American League West has produced a large number of Cy Young Winners starting with Jim Perry of the Twins in 1970 and Vida Blue of the A's in 1971. Here are the rest:
Catfish Hunter (A's) 1974
LaMar Hoyt (White Sox)1983
Bret Saberhagen (Royals) 1985
Frank Viola (Twins) 1988
Bret Saberhagen (Royals) 1989
Bob Welch (A's) 1990
Dennis Eckersley (A's) 1992
Jack McDowell (White Sox) 1993
Randy Johnson (Mariners) 1995
Barry Zito (A's) 2002
Bartolo Colon (Angels) 2005
Felix Hernandez (Mariners) 2010

Sunday, March 17, 2013

2013 National League East Preview

***The Division Preview that follows is not betting advice in any way shape or form.  Please do not bet any money based in any part on these predictions.***

Don't forget to also check out the AL EastAL Central and AL West previews from the past three weeks.  Check back next week for the NL Central preview.

This division has seen two teams experience their golden ages as well as one team come within one out of reaching the World Series and come up short.  When the first season of three division play ended in 1994 the Expos had a six game lead over the Braves. Had the season not ended in August the Expos may have been the first National League East division champions under the new format.  As it ended up, the Braves won the division (and the World Series) in 1995.  They went on to absolutely dominate the division.  Beginning in 1995 straight through 2005 the Braves won the division every year and rarely had anything close to a challenge.  In fact from 1995 through 1999 no team finished the season closer than six and a half games behind the Braves.  It wasn't until the Mets finished one game behind in 2000 and the Phillies finished two games behind in 2001 that the Braves had serious competition.  Despite the Braves dominance at the top of the division they reached the World Series in only three of those years while the division produced three Wild Card World Series appearances (1997 Marlins, 2000 Mets and 2003 Marlins). 

The 2006 Mets finally toppled the Braves dynasty in 2006 and beat out the Phillies by twelve games and the Braves by eighteen.  In a classic seven game NLCS against the Cardinals they appeared to be headed for the World Series until Yadier Molina of the Cardinals launched a two run Home Run in the top of the 9th and then Carlos Beltran struck out looking with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth.  The 2007 Mets had a big lead in August but were overtaken by a reborn Phillies team in the last weekend of the season.

The Phillies have never had a run of success this good in the history of their team (although the 1976-1983 teams come a very close second).  They won the division in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011, reaching the World Series in 2008 and 2009.  Despite this success they are considered underachievers because of the amount of talent they have on their roster should be winning the World Series every year.

The Marlins have only been around for 20 years but have managed to produce two great World Series teams, one of the most disappointing teams in history and had some of the worst teams ever.  This division, unlike the American League East, has a clear delineation between the top three teams and the bottom two.  Here's how I see it playing out:


Washington Nationals

Last Year's Record:
98-64 (1st Place in NL East)
Lost to St. Louis Cardinals 3-2 in ALDS
Who's new?*:
Erik Davis (P) promoted from minors , Dan Haren (P) free agent from Angels, Nathan Karns (P) promoted from minors, Cole Kimball (P) promoted from minors, Yunesky Maya (P) promoted from minors, Matt Purke (P) promoted from minors, Rafael Soriano(P) free agent from Yankees, Anthony Rendon (3B) promoted from minors , Carlos Rivero (3B) promoted from minors, Denard Span (OF) trade from Twins.
Who left?*:
Sean Burnett (P) free agent to Angels, Mike Gonzalez (P) free agent to Brewers, Tom Gorzelanny (P) free agent to Brewers,  Edwin Jackson (P) free agent to Cubs, John Lannan (P) free agent to Phillies, Chien-Ming Wang (P) unsigned free agent, Jesus Flores (C) free agent to Dodgers , Cesar Izturis (SS) free agent to Reds, Michael Morse (OF) trade to Mariners , Mark de Rosa (UT) free agent with Blue Jays.
What to expect: 
Washington baseball fans have high expectations this season for the first time since, well, likely since 1925 when the Senators won their second consecutive American League pennant.  After coming so close to advancing to the NLCS before falling to the ever unpredictable Cardinals, Nationals fans can look forward to an improved team.  The Nationals will have Strasburg for a full season with no innings limitations,  a set infield for the whole season and they added speed at the top of the lineup with Denard Span. The way to win a championship is with strong pitching and strong defense up the middle.  The Nationals have a great double play combination with Espinoza and Desmond, a strong defensive Centerfielder in Span and a great signal caller in Kurt Suzuki.  The pitching?  They have two of the best pitchers in the game with Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez, two more great young arms in Jordan Zimmerman (although he has struggled some this spring) and Ross Detwiler and have added Dan Haren who can dominate batters when he is healthy.  The big problem last season was at closer where Drew Storen struggled in the postseason after having a strong regular season.  The Nationals added the most sought after free agent closer, Soriano, which should give them the lift they need to advance farther in the playoffs.
Why should you root for these guys?: 

This organization has had a tough history.  They started as the Montreal Expos who often produced great talent but could not quite get enough fans interested to keep the talent they developed.  The Expos then had two seasons where they split home games between Montreal and San Juan, Puerto Rico making them a franchise without a true home, almost a vagabond, drifter organization.  When they finally got authorization to play in Washington (Baltimore's owner Peter Angelos was not happy about the competition in the area) they were considered a joke.  It seemed that the Expos had taken the bit about the nation wanting the "tired, poor and huddled masses" a bit too seriously and several baseball fans in Washington probably would have liked to tell the organization to keep looking for a home.  At the start of this organization's Washington existence they were operated by Major League Baseball's corporate offices until they could find an owner who wanted to buy the orphaned organization.  After building this team from the ground up the Nationals appear to be set to become a future dominant team with a lot of young talent.
Why might this season not turn out like Nationals fans want?: 
The Nationals are in a tough division, despite the Mets and Marlins at the bottom of it.  Atlanta has improved greatly and the Phillies are, for the most part, healthy again.  The Nationals appear to have a great all around team with a strong bench that will benefit from players like Steve Lombardozzi and Wilson Ramos.   It will depend on the players actually performing to their capabilities to get over last year's devastating playoff loss.
Don't expect too much from him: 
Ryan Zimmerman is Mr. National.  After roaming from Montreal to San Juan and landing in Washington the Nationals had a great young, talented Thirdbaseman.  With the Nationals being considered a baseball graveyard at the time it was said how sad it was that his great talent would be lost in Washington.  Zimmerman continued to play well and is one of the best players in the league.  Zimmerman suffered through a lot of injuries over the last few years and his defense occasionally suffered from these.  You can expect Zimmerman to be the consistently strong player he has always been.  You can expect him to be the leader of this team in the club house and the community and you can expect him to be a great guy on and off the field.  Just don't expect him to put up record breaking numbers.
Expect great things from:
Stephen Strasburg was confused at the end of last season.  He kept telling the Nationals his arm was fine.  He had no pain, no issues and his doctors were telling the team he was healthy.  Yet the Nationals were insistent that they shut him down when he reached his innings limit.  There is no limit this year.  There is no restrictions on his innings pitched and Strasburg can relax, go out to the mound every fifth day and dominate with the natural talent that comes along once in a generation.
Time for him to step up:
Jayson Werth signed a huge contract before the 2011 season and people thought the Nationals were insane.  People in Philadelphia knew what the Nationals had gotten.  Werth is a special talent with the ability to field and hit but his best attribute is his baseball knowledge.  Werth has a habit of making the right play at the right time.  He is a smart base runner, often getting an extra base.  He is a smart fielder, rarely taking a poor route to a ball.  He is a smart hitter.  Werth suffered through injuries last year with a horrific wrist injury but managed to hit a huge playoff home run that gave the Nationals their first iconic playoff moment.  Werth will need to step up and be the player that the Nationals signed for the big dollars and be the player he was when he was healthy with Philadelphia.
Is this his last chance?:
This team does not seem to have anyone on their  last chance.  It appears that everyone here still has a lot of baseball left in their career.
Prediction:
1st Place in  NL East

Atlanta Braves

Last Year's Record:
94-68 (2nd place in NL East.  First Wild Card)
Lost to St. Louis Cardinals in Wild Card Game
Who's new?*:
David Carpenter (P) waiver claim from Red Sox, David Hale (P) promoted from minors, Juan Jaime (P) promoted from minors, Aaron Northcraft (P)promoted from minors , Cory Rasmus (P) promoted from minors, Jordan Walden (P) trade from Angels, Christian Bethancourt (C) promoted from minors, Gerald Laird (C) free agent Tigers , Chris Johnson (3B) trade from Diamondbacks, Ernesto Mejia (1B) promoted from minors, B.J. Upton (OF) free agent from Rays, Justin Upton (OF) trade from Diamondbacks.
Who left?*:
Miguel Batista (P) free agent to Rockies, Randall Delgado (P) trade to Diamondbacks, Chad Durbin (P) free agent to Phillies, Tommy Hanson (P) trade to Angels, Jair Jurrjens (P) free agent to Orioles, Peter Moylan (P) free agent to Dodgers, Ben Sheets (P) unsigned free agent, David Ross (C) free agent to Red Sox , J.C. Boscan (C) free agent to Cubs, Lyle Overbay (1B) free agent to Red Sox, Chipper Jones (3B/OF) retired, Martin Prado (OF) trade to Diamondbacks, Matt Diaz (OF) free agent to Yankees, Michael Bourn (OF) free agent to Indians, Erik Hinske (OF) free agent to Diamondbacks, Jeff Baker (OF) free agent to Rangers.
What to expect: 
The Braves have made some tremendous upgrades to their team this off season, most notably adding the Upton brothers.  They did not upgrade their starting rotation and lost two big leaders in the clubhouse.  The loss to the Cardinals left a bad taste in the mouth of the Braves but they may not have enough pitching to get a chance to avenge what they think was a stolen victory. 
Why should you root for these guys?: 
The Braves fought to reach the playoffs last year and hosted the first ever Wild Card playoff game in National League (and since it started early that afternoon, the first in Major League history).  They were looking to get Chipper Jones a World Series win as a retirement present.  It looked like they were set to move ahead of the Cardinals until a controversial infield fly call that went the other way.  They may not be able to win one for the Chipper but they would certainly like to win one for themselves.
Why might this season not turn out like Braves fans want?: 
The offense is great with quite possibly the best outfield in baseball (B.J.Upton, Justin Upton and a healthy Justin Heyward) as well as Brian McCann and Freddie Freeman.  The problem is pitching.  Kris Medlen had a great year and Tim Hudson is the clear ace but the reminder of the rotation is in question and the middle relievers do not inspire confidence.  Craig Kimbrel is a great closer but holding a lead until his time to come in may be a daily adventure.
Don't expect too much from him: 
Kris Medlen finished the 2012 season with a 10-1 record.  Prior to 2012 he had a total of 9 wins over three major league seasons.  Medlen may have a good season but it is not likely he will be able to turn in a winning percentage like that again.  If he can win somewhere between 10 and 15 games the Braves should be able to reach a Wild Card.
Expect great things from:
Justin Upton is a great player and when a great player has something to prove the rest of the league needs to look out.  For some reason no one can seem to understand, the Diamondbacks started looking to trade Justin Upton around the midpoint of last summer.  There was no explanaton but Upton became an unexpected distraction.  The Diamondbacks traded Upton over the winter and Upton will now have to prove that Arizona made a mistake.  With the support he has in the lineup it shouldn't take long.
Time for him to step up:
Dan Uggla was an All Star with the Marlins when the Braves signed him for big dollars.  He started very slow in 2011 then went on a 33 game hitting streak and again fell into a slump.  In his two years in Atlanta Uggla has hit .233 and .220.  He has improved on the fielding problems that plagued him in Miami but he has not improved enough to justify keeping his weak bat in the lineup.  The Braves will need improved offensive numbers from Uggla if they plan to take down Washington.
Is this his last chance?:
Jordan Walden was expected to be the closer in Anaheim for the Angels.  He had trouble holding leads in 2011 and 2012 and his failures played a large role in the Angels failure to meet expectations in both of those years.  Walden is slated to be a set up man in Atlanta but if he fails to help hold a lead until Kimbrel is ready he may be out of chances.
Prediction:
2nd Place in NL East (First Wild Card)

Philadelphia Phillies


Last Year's Record:
81-81.  3rd Place in NL East
Who's new?*:
Mike Adams (P) free agent from Rangers, Chad Durbin (P) free agent from Braves, John Lannan (P) free agent from Nationals , Ethan Martin (P) trade from Dodgers, Jonathan Pettibone (P) promoted from minors, Mauricio Robles (P) waiver claim from Mariners, Sebastian Valle (C) ,promoted from minors, Cesar Hernandez (2B) promoted from minors, Michael Young (1B/2B/3B) trade from Rangers, Zach Collier (OF) promoted from minors, Tyson Gillies (OF) promoted from minors, Ender Inciarte (OF) Rule 5 Draft Pick from Diamondbacks, Ben Revere (OF) trade from Twins, Delmon Young (OF) free agent from Tigers.
Who left?*: Tyson Brummett (P) waiver claim by Blue Jays, Jose Contreras (P) free agent to Pirates, David Herndon (P) waiver claim by Blue Jays , Josh Lindblom (P) trade to Rangers, Michael Schwimer (P) trade to Blue Jays, Vance Worley (P) trade to Twins, Brian Schneider (C) unsigned free agent, Placido Polanco (3B) free agent to Marlins, Ty Wigginton (3B) free agent to Cardinals, Juan Pierre (OF) free agent to Marlins, Nate Schierholtz (OF) free agent to Cubs, Jason Pridie (OF) free agent to Orioles.
What to expect: 
This is an important season for the Phillies.  It could define how this era of Phillies baseball is perceived in the coming generations.  Were they a good team that managed to win a World Series in 2008 but failed to live up to expectations in every other year?  Or were they the greatest collection of talent in the long history of the Phillies organization?  With a healthy Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and (maybe) Roy Halladay and new offensive weapons in Michael Young and Delmon Young there are no more excuses for this team.  they need to win early and win often.  If they struggle early the pieces of this team may be scattered to the far reaches of the major leagues.
Why should you root for these guys?: 
The Phillies organization has had very few long runs of success.  The team  reached the World Series in 1915 but lost 4-1 to the Red Sox.  They did not reach the World Series again until 1950 when they were swept out by the Yankees.  They nearly got back there in 1964 but a historic collapse sent them home for an early vacation.  The next playoff appearance was not until 1976.  In between those seasons there was little to cheer about. From 1976-1983 the Phillies were in the playoffs nearly every year.  Then there were dark years until 1993 and more dark year after that.  This playoff run from 2007 through 2011 is likely the best collection they have ever team but they need another World Series win to truly claim their place in Phillies history.
Why might this season not turn out like Phillies fans want?: 
The Phillies team that won the World Series in 2008 did not win with the bat, they won with pitching.  As hard as that may be to believe with a lineup including Utley, Howard, Rollins, Werth, Victorino and Rollins, it is absolutely true.  The Phillies had difficulty scoring against Tampa Bay and were constantly leaving runners on base.  They won with their bullpen of J.C. Romero (7th innings), Ryan Madson (8th innings) and Brad Lidge (9th innings).  The bullpen since then has not been the same.  Jonathan Papelbon is a good closer but the bridge between the great starting pitchers and the good closer is not as strong as that 2008 team.  Adding Mike Adams and Chad Durbin was a good start but they will need Antonio Bastardo and Mike Stutes to improve.  If the middle relief fails it will be a long season in Philadelphia.  The Phillies also need to be very concerned about how the pitching staff will handle the first 50 games of the season.  Carlos Ruiz is one of the best Catchers in the league at handling a pitching staff but with his suspension for the first 50 games the Phillies pitching staff will need to rely on an unproven Catcher and need to quickly get on the same page.
Don't expect too much from him: 
Jimmy Rollins is an MVP, World Series Champion, four time Gold Glove winner and three time All Star. When he chooses to retire his number will undoubtedly be retired by the Phillies and he will likely be enshrined in Cooperstown.  He is one of the best Shortstops in baseball but he has been playing for well over a decade and  his average has dropped over the last few years.  Expectations for Jimmy should be that he will continue leading this team and being the embodiment of the team's spirit.  Just don't expect him to be the J-Roll of 2007.
Expect great things from:
Ryan Howard had a miserable 2009 World Series. After being red hot in the NLDS and NLCS, Howard hit only .174 and struck out 13 times.  2010 saw a drop in his strikeouts but also a drop in his Home Runs and RBI.  Howard struggled again in the 2010 NLCS.  He hit .318 but had no Home Runs, no RBI and struck out 12 times.  2011 was about the same as 2010 and his playoff performance ended with him tearing his ACL and being carried off he field.  Howard missed nearly all of 2012 and when he did play he did not have the same power and comfort in his swing that he used to have.  Howard is now well rested, healthy  and determined to make up for lost time.  The pattern of Howard's career has been a slow spring, an even slower first month and a half and when the weather heats up so does Ryan Howard.  Howard has already hit four spring home runs and appears to be determined to recover the form that made him a superstar.
Time for him to step up:
Domonic Brown was thought to be the replacement for Jayson Werth when he left for Washington.  According to the Phillies at that time, everything was alright when Werth left because Brown would step in and be an improvement.  He apparently had more speed and a better bat.  For whatever reason Brown failed to live up to expectations and  John Mayberry, Jr stepped up.  The stories out of spring training have been that Brown has been working diligently on his fielding and has dedicated himself to improving his hitting.  He will need to reach his potential if the Phillies are going to stay in the playoff hunt.
Is this his last chance?:
Charlie Manuel took over as Phillies manager in 2005.  Since that time the Phillies missed the playoffs by small margins in 2005, 2006 and 2012 and reached the NLDS in 2007 and 2011, the NLCS in 2010 and the World Series in 2008 and 2009.  No manager has been this successful in the history of the organization and he is loved by the players.  With the large payroll, an aging team, three straight seasons of underachieving and a highly sought after managerial prospect in Ryne Sandberg sitting on the bench the Phillies may need to make a change if the team gets off to a slow start.
Prediction:
3rd place in NL East

New York Mets

Last Year's Record:
74-88 (4th Place in NL East)
Who's new?*:
Greg Burke (P) promoted from minors, Gonzalez German (P) promoted from minors, Darin Gorski (P) promoted from minors, Brandon Lyon (P) free agent from Blue Jays, Shawn Marcum (P) free agent from Brewers, Hansel Robles (P) promoted from minors, Zack Wheeler (P) promoted from minors, John Buck (C) trade from Blue Jays,  Travis D'Anard (C) trade from Blue Jays, Anthony Recker (C) waiver claim from Cubs , Wilmer Flores (SS) promoted from minors, Reese Havens (2B) promoted from minors, Brandon Hicks (SS) contract purchased from Athletics, Wilfredo Tovar (SS) promoted from minors, Collin Cowgill (OF) trade with Athletics, Juan Lagares (OF) promoted from minors, Cesar Puello (OF) promoted from minors.
Who left?*:
Manny Acosta (P) unsigned free agent, R.A. Dickey (P) trade to Blue Jays, Jack Egbert (P) unsigned free agent, Rob Johnson (C) free agent to Cardinals, Garrett Olson (P) free agent to Mariners, Mike Pelfrey (P) free agent to Twins, Ramon Ramirez (P) free agent to Giants , Jon Rauch (P) free agent to Marlins,  Chris Young (P) free agent to Nationals,  Josh Thole (C) trade to Blue Jays, Kelly Shoppach (C) free agent to Mariners, Mike Nickeas (C) trade to Blue Jays, Ronny Cedeno (IF) free agent to Cardinals , Jason Bay (OF) free agent to Mariners, Andres Torres (OF) free agent to Giants. Fred Lewis (OF) unsigned free agent, Scott Hairston (OF) free agent to Cubs.
What to expect: 
Expectations should be low in New York.  This team is clearly in a rebuilding phase and although they have some talent in the lineup it would be more likely that this team finishes in last than finishes in a playoff spot. The Mets have steadily lost their stars over the past three seasons as Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and R.A. Dickey departed.  Johan Santana has had a rough few years with many arm problems but he is still listed as the team ace on the depth chart.  The Mets may have a rough future ahead and a long way to go before they are a competitive team.
Why should you root for these guys?: 
Considering the large market this team plays in they are in serious financial trouble.  They were greatly damaged by the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme and the owners finances have a long way to go to recover.  The farm system does have some potential but they are a few years away from seeing the fruit of the farm.  With classy players like David Wright and Johann Santana it would be nice to see some good guys win for once.
Why might this season not turn out like Mets fans want?: 
The farm system is still a few years away from producing any real talent and the team does not have the money to buy the talent it needs to compete.  There are definite bright spots in the lineup like David Wright, Lucas Duda and Ike Davis, the pitching staff is no where near good enough to compete with the top three in this division.
Don't expect too much from him: 
Shaun Marcum played a big role in increasing the expectations in Toronto in 2010.  He then moved onto Milwaukee where he helped the Brewers reach the NLCS for the first time since 1982.  The expectations for Marcum have been grand but the reality has been that he is a slightly above average pitcher (never winning more than 13 games) who is capable of showing flashes of better quality.  You can expect him to help the Mets and be a strong part of their rotation but don't expect an R. A. Dickey type performance from him.
Expect great things from:
David Wright arrived on the Mets roster in 2005 as the team had a high payroll and high expectations.  2005 was not their year.  The 2006 Mets thought it was their year and used an All Star studded line up to get within a game of the World Series before being knocked off by the Cardinals.  All of the pieces of that 2006 team are gone with the exception of Wright.  The Mets have something special in Wright:  a player that will represent their team with class and will constantly give his all every game regardless of the score or the team's place in the standings.  Wright takes the game of baseball seriously and treats it with respect.  Wright may not be leading the Mets to a World Series but the organization couldn't ask for a better leader.
Time for him to step up:
Dillon Gee has been up and down, to the minors and back, since 2010.  He finished 2-2 in 2010, 13-6 in 2011 and 6-7 in 2012.  With Santana still having arm problems and R.A. Dickey trying to repeat his career year in another uniform, the Mets need someone to be the ace.  Gee has potential, as shown by his 13 win season but the Mets need him to win between 15 and 20 and need him to pitch deep into games.
Is this his last chance?:
Johan Santana was the best pitcher in the American League from 2003-2007 winning two Cy Young Awards for the Twins and leading them to the playoffs several times in the early 2000's.  He came to the Mets after their historic 2007 collapse and had a good 16-7 season.  Unfortunately from that point on Santana has had health issues that have kept him from repeating the success he had in the American League.  It looked like he might have gotten past the issues last season when he pitched the first no-hitter in Mets history.   Almost immediately his arm troubles reappeared.  Santana will need to complete a full season if he is going to remain in the Mets plans as they start to rebuild.
Prediction:
4th Place in National League East

Miami Marlins


Last Year's Record:
69-93 5th place (last) in NL East
Who's new?*:
Henderson Alvarez (P) trade from Blue Jays, Arquimedes Caminero (P) promoted from minors, Jose Ceda (P) return from injury, Sam Dyson (P) waiver claim from Blue Jays,  Braulio Lara (P) promoted from minors, Scott Maine (P) waiver claim from Blue Jays,  Edgar Olmos (P) promoted from minors,  Jon Rauch (P) free agent from Mets, Evan Reed (P) promoted from minors, Alex Sanabia (P) promoted from minors , Jeff Mathis (C) trade from Blue Jays,  Kyle Skipworth (C) promoted from minors, Zack Cox (3B) trade from Cardinals, Adeiny Hechevarria (3B) trade from Blue Jays , Joe Mahoney (1B) waiver claim form Orioles , Placido Polanco (3B) free agent from Phillies, Kyle Jensen (OF) promoted from minors, Marcell Ozuna (OF) promoted from minors, Juan Pierre (OF) free agent from Phillies, Alfredo Silverio (OF) Rule 5 Draft pick from Dodgers.
Who left?*:
Heath Bell (P) free agent to Diamondbacks, Mark Buehrle (P) trade to Blue Jays, Chad Gaudin (P) free agent to Giants, Josh Johnson (P) trade to Blue Jays, Carlos Zambrano (P) unsigned free agent, John Buck (C) trade to Blue Jays, Brett Hays (C) claimed off waivers by Royals, Carlos Lee (1B) unsigned free agent , Gil Velazquez (3B) free agent to Yankees,  Jose Reyes (SS) trade to Blue Jays, Donnie Murphy (IF) free agent to Brewers , Emilio Bonifacio (OF/2B) trade to Blue Jays , Scott Cousins (OF)waiver claim by Blue Jays, Adam Greenberg (OF) free agent to Orioles.
What to expect: 
Marlins fans need to prepare for rock bottom.  Some people suggested last year was rock bottom but this year will certainly be worse.  The Marlins ownership has explained to fans that they don't need to pay huge amounts of money to supposedly superior players to finish last, they can do that with a small budget.  They may prove it this year having lost nearly their entire 2012 starting lineup.
Why should you root for these guys?: 
You don't necessarily need to root for the team, as the ownership has repeatedly dumped all the talent they have for magic beans only to promise the fans (and the players) the world while delivering the worst.  You should root for Marlins fans who have suffered the ups and downs of this team since 1993.  The Marlins were impatient to let their  farm system develop so they spent a ton of money to build the 1997 World Champions.  They immediately dumped the entire team.  They rebuilt a strong young team and surprised everyone by beating the Yankees in 2003.  They again dumped everyone.  The team then spent a fortune signing Jose Reyes, Heath Bell, Mark Buehrle, Carlos Zambrano and Ozzie Guillien and believed they would work well with Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson and Giancarlo Stanton.  The season was a disaster from the change of uniforms (which made them look like they were on an employe softball team) to Ozzie Guillen offending the fans, the players and the owners by mid April to the mid season talent dump. The loyal Miami fans deserve a break.
Why might this season not turn out like Marlins fans want?: 
The high expectations of last year are gone and with it the talent that created the expectations.  The Marlins have completely retooled leaving many to speculate that the team only spent the money last year to get the funding for the new stadium.  The Marlins did sign several new players including Placido Polanco and Juan Pierre but the lineup is not nearly strong enough to compete with the top three in this division and the rotation is not tremendously talented.
Don't expect too much from him: 
Placido Polanco was a great player for the Detroit Tigers in their playoff run from 2006 until he left for Philadelphia in 2009.  Phillies fans had high expectations for Polanco but by the beginning of his second year there were some who questioned whether Pedro Feliz was the better option.  That is probably an unfair assessment since Polanco has suffered greatly from various injuries but he clearly is not the same player he was seven years ago.  Expect Polanco to do what he can to instill a fighting spirit in the fish but don't expect an All Star performance.
Expect great things from:
Giancarlo Stanton was the one big piece from last year's Marlins that has remained.  He will be the future of the franchise one way or the other.  Either the team will build a winning team around him or Stanton's numbers will be so good that a team will overwhelm the Marlins with a package of prospects they can use to build a winning team.  Stanton has denied that he demanded to be traded but given the feeling of doom surrounding the team this winter it would be hard to blame him for wanting to leave.  Marlins fans should appreciate what they have in Stanton because talent like his is hard to find.
Time for him to step up:
Nathan Eovaldi was a big prospect for the Dodgers and one that they were not excited about giving up in the deal to get Hanley Ramirez.  Eovaldi had a 1-6 record when he left the Dodgers but his record did not necessarily reflect his efforts.  He often started the games strong but was hit hard the second time through the lineup.  Eovaldi will need to focus his talents and go deep into games if he is to establish himself as the strong starter the Marlins thought they traded for.
Is this his last chance?:
Juan Pierre is back where he played his best baseball.  With Juan Pierre on the base paths the Marlins had a constant threat in 2003.  He was seemingly always causing havoc by either distracting the pitcher with his lead,stealing a base or creating panic in the outfielders who were trying to get the ball quickly before Pierre took off for the next base.  Pierre had some success in Chicago with the White Sox but his stops in Los Angeles and Philadelphia were not up to his usual caliber (although his time as Manny Ramirez's replacement while Manny served his drug suspension was spectacular).  Pierre would like nothing better than to win another World Series in Miami but he may have to settle for reminding the fans of the glory days.
Prediction:
5th Place in NL East

*-All roster changes are based on active rosters at the end of 2012 and active rosters as of the week of 3/3.  Teams may have non-roster invitees in camp who are not listed in the "Who's New?" category.