2013 American League East Preview

***The Division Preview that follows is not betting advice in any way shape or form.  Please do not bet any money based in any part on these predictions.***

For a a little over a decade this has been considered the best division in baseball.  The Yankees and Red Sox have absolutely dominated the American League East since the strike year of 1994.  With the exception of the Orioles in 1997 and the 2008 Rays, the Yankees or Red Sox won the division every year.  One of the two also finished second in every season since the strike, except 2011 and 2012.

The Yankees and Red Sox are starting to fall back while the Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays have improved to create a more competitive division.  Coming into this season it would not be a surprise to see any of these teams finish first or last.  The Yankees have grown old before our eyes and are trying to find their way without Steinbrenner in charge.  Many have predicted a complete Yankee collapse but don't forget this team won 95 games last year.  The Orioles pulled a magic trick in challenging the Yankees for first last year and return with almost the same team, although it is hard to imagine them winning as many games in comeback fashion or with the patch work pitching rotation they used last year.  The Rays continue to lose premiere players, yet every year Joe Maddon has them in contention.  The Red Sox have talent that most organizations would kill for but the clubhouse chemistry is terrible.  The Blue Jays have made great improvements but did they change too many parts at one time?

As the division appears to be in a state of upheaval with all the cards up in the air it will be a fun six months watching the five teams fight it out and seeing who will land on top.  Here's how I see it playing out:

Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays logo courtesy of sportslogos.net

Last Year's Record:
73-89 (4th in AL East)
Who's new?*:
Mark Buehrle (P) trade from Marlins, R.A. Dickey (P) trade from Mets, Jeremy Jeffress (P) contract purchased from Royals, Josh Johnson (P) trade from Miami, Dustin McGowan (P) returning from surgery, Esmil Rogers (P) trade from Indians, Henry Blanco (C) free agent from Diamondbacks, A.J. Jimenez (C) from minor leagues, Josh Thole (C) trade from Mets, Mark DeRosa (IF) free agent from Nationals, Ryan Goins (IF) from minors, Maicer Izturis (2B) free agent from Angels, Jose Reyes (SS) trade from Marlins, Emilio Bonifacio (OF) trade from Marlins, Melky Cabrera (OF) free agent from Giants.
Who left?*:
Henderson Alvarez (P), traded to Marlins, Joel Carreno (P) sent to minor leagues, Chad Beck (P) on expanded spring training roster, Andrew Carpenter (P) free agent to Cubs, David Carpenter (P) traded to Boston Red Sox, Robert Coello (P) free agent to Angels,  Kyle Drabek (P) on extended spring training roster, Sam Dyson (P) traded to Marlins, Jason Frasor (P) free agent to Rangers, Shawn Hill (P) free agent to Tigers, Bobby Korecky (P) sent to minor leagues,  Aaron Laffey (P) free agent to Mets, Brandon Lyon (P) traded to Mets, Scott Richmond (P) unsigned free agent, Carlos Villanueva (P) free agent to Cubs,  Jeff Mathis (C) traded to Marlins, Kelly Johnson (2B) free agent to Rays, Yunel Escobar (SS) traded to Marlins, Omar Vizquel (SS) unsigned free agent, Adeiny Hechevarria (IF) traded to Marlins, Yorvit Torrealba (UT) free agent to Rockies, Mike McCoy (UT) sent to minor leagues, Yan Gomez (UT) traded to Cleveland Indians.
What to expect: 
Expect the best.  Toronto is going all in this year with a complete overhaul.  They have a combination of young and old.  Power and speed.  Award winners and possible future award winners.  They have a deep pitching rotation, strong defense up the middle, speed at the top and bottom of the lineup and power in the middle of the order.  On paper this is the best team in the division.
Why should you root for these guys?: 
There has not been this much excitement over baseball in Toronto since the league had two divisions in each league, the Brewers were in the American League and the Nationals were still the Montreal Expos.  For the first time since before the 1994 strike canceled the World Series the Canadian baseball fan actually has expectations of the playoffs.  This team would like to carry on the tradition of Joe Carter, Roberto Alomar, Devon White and Jimmy Key and it would be fun to see the Jays playing in October. 
Why might this season not turn out like Blue Jays fans want?: 
The game is not played on paper.  Everyone on the roster needs to quickly adjust to the new surroundings and new team mates.  R.A. Dickey had a great 2012 (and the Jays were smart enough to make sure his personal Catcher came along to catch the knuckle ball), but it is hard to expect Dickey to repeat the great numbers of last year because they were so far above his career numbers.  Manager John Gibbons has been a part of the Toronto organization in the past but he will need to quickly make a connection with the remaining players from the John Farrell era.  Bautista and Encarnacion flourished under Farrell.  Will they feel as comfortable under Gibbons?  The majority of the new players came from the Marlins, a team that finished in last place in 2012.  Will they be able to lift the Jays to the top perch?
Don't expect too much from him: 
Josh Johnson has all the potential in the world but has had to struggle with the Marlins poor teams since 2005.  There will be less pressure on him as the fourth starter in Toronto as opposed to the expectations of being a young ace.  Now that there is less pressure and a better team around him Johnson will need to finally define his career:  big time pitcher or unfulfilled potential.
Expect great things from:
Jose Reyes is an exciting, top of the lineup speedster.  He will be a big reason the Blue Jays win, if they do.  His speed gives them a threat they have not had since Rickey Henderson and will lead to Toronto having a well balanced offense.  His ability to steal bases can be a major distraction to pitchers and can lead to Bautista and Encarnacion seeing some extra mistake pitches. 
Time for him to step up:
Rickey Romero has been billed for several years as the future of this team.  He steadily improved from 2009 through 2011 but 2012 was a disappointment and Romero was frustrated by the end of the year, finishing just 9-14.  He has fallen to the fifth starter with competition from J.A. Happ for the fifth starter spot.  Romero will need to make his mark this year.
Is this his last chance?:
Melky Cabrera has had a good career.  He won the World Series with the 2009 Yankees and had a decent 2011 with Kansas City.  He was part of a big trade between the Royals and Giants that sent Jonathan Sanchez to the Royals.  The Giants were looking at Cabrera as an MVP candidate until late August when he was suspended for using a banned substance.  The Blue Jays made some dramatic improvements to the roster, but adding Cabrera will be the one looked at with the biggest skepticism.  Cabrera has become the target of the anti-steroids push and will need to prove that he can perform without the use of PED's.  He will be heavily scrutinized and if he fails he may not get another shot.
Prediction: 
First place in AL East.

New York Yankees

Yankees logo courtesy of Wikipedia

Last Year's Record:
95-67 (1st place).
Defeated Baltimore Orioles 3-2 in ALDS.
Lost to Detroit Tigers 4-0 in ALCS.
Who's new?*:
Manny Banuelos (P) promoted from minors, Dellin Betances (P) promoted from minors, Cesar Cabral (P) promoted from minors, Shawn Kelley (P) trade from Mariners, Brett Marshall (P) promoted from minors, Michael Pineda (P) return from injury (possibly back by June), Jose Ramirez (P) promoted from minors, Francisco Rondon (P) promoted from minors, Nik Turley (P) promoted from minors, Austin Romine (C) promoted from minors, David Adams (2B) promoted from minors, Corban Joseph (2B) promoted from minors, Kevin Youkilis (3B) free agent from White Sox, Zoilo Almonte (OF) promoted from minors, Ramon Flores (OF) promoted from minors, Travis Hafner (DH) free agent from Indians.
Who left?*:
Freddy Garcia (P) free agent to Padres, Rafael Soriano (P) free agent to Nationals, Corey Wade (P) free agent to Cubs, Derek Lowe (P) unsigned free agent, Justin Thomas (P) free agent to Athletics, Ryota Igarashi (P) free agent to Mets, Russell Martin (C) free agent to Pirates, Raul Ibanez (OF/DH) free agent to Mariners, Nick Swisher (OF) free agent to Indians, Eric Chavez (3B/DH) free agent to Diamondbacks, Andruw Jones (OF) free agent to Japan, Casey McGehee (OF) unsigned free agent, Chris Dickerson (OF) free agent to Orioles, Ramiro Pena (IF/DH) free agent to Braves, Darnell McDonald (UT) free agent to Cubs.
What to expect:
Yankee fans shouldn't get their hopes too high.  A playoff birth is possible but they are an aging team with an ownership group still getting their foundation set after the Boss stepped away a few years ago.  If all goes well they could still compete for a division title and even the World Series but it would take a lot going right for that to happen.  Don't believe the talk of a complete collapse but don't expect them to be more than an average team.
Why should you root for these guys?: 
Jeter, Rivera and Pettite are the last links to the last great Yankee dynasty.  This will certainly be Rivera's last year and could very likely be the last for Jeter and Pettite.  For the three pillars of the Yankees greatness, it would be nice to see them go out on top. Ichiro languished in Seattle doing great things for a terrible organization.  He finally got his chance in the playoffs last year but the Yankees came up short.  Ichiro is assuredly a Hall of Famer once he retires, it would be nice to see him inducted while wearing a World Series ring. 
Why might this season not turn out like Yankee fans want?: 
There are a lot of questions coming into this season, starting with A-Rod.  On top of his injury, which will keep him out until at least the All Star Break, there is the not insignificant matter of the Miami based steroid clinic which he had some connection with.    It is not likely, but entirely possible, that he will receive some sort of discipline from the league.  Youkilis is a good player and contributed heavily to the White Sox strong 2012 but he is on the decline and will not give them the numbers that A-Rod  gave them when he was healthy.  C.C. Sabathia denied rumors about shoulder issues at the end of last season but was clearly hurting and it is unclear how many innings Pettite will be able to give them.  Rivera will be  returning from almost an entire year off recuperating from the catastrophic knee injury that would have ended most careers.  Will he be able to step back into the closers role as though nothing happened? This is an aging team with little youth in the pipeline to infuse life into the system.
Don't expect too much from him:
Derek Jeter suffered a severe ankle injury in the playoffs. He is known for playing through pain, and doing it well.  Yet, at his age, coming back from a major injury of this type is not as many seem to expect.  Jeter only got clearance to start running again within the last few weeks and will have to work hard to get his legs back.  His signature play is chasing a ball deep in the hole and throwing while leaping off balance.  How will the ankle hold up when he has to make that play?
Expect great things from: 
Brett Gardner missed most of last year with an injury but is looking healthy and is ready to go.  Gardner has a lot of talent and will be looked on to make up for the lost production of Swisher.  He should be able to contribute better numbers than Swisher did last year and could be an All Star this year.
Time for him to step up:
Joba Chamberlain came onto the scene in 2007 with a lot of expectations and he seemed ready fulfill all expectations.  Since 2009 he has been up and down and missed most of an entire season recovering from a severe ankle injury. He is on the Active Roster, however, not listed on the depth chart.  The Yankees will need him to have a great comeback season if they are going to make a deep run in the playoffs.
Is this his last chance?:
Most of this team is on their last chance to win a World Series.  Jeter, Pettite, Ichiro, Rivera, Hafner and Youkilis have been in this game for a long time and are all on the decline.  Rivera has already said that this will be his last year and the other old men may not be far behind. As these players start to bow out the Yankees have little hope to immediately replace them.
Prediction:
2nd Place in AL East. Second Wild Card.

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays logo courtesy of sportslogo.net

Last Year's Record: 
90-72 (3rd Place in AL East)
Who's new?*: 
Alex Colome (P) promoted from minor leagues, Frank De los Santos (P) promoted from minors, Roberto Hernandez (aka Fausto Carmona) (P) free agent from Indians, Mike Montgomery (P) trade from Royals, Jake Odorizzi (P) trade from Royals, Felipe Romero (P) promoted from minors, Enny Romero (P) promoted from minors, Robinson Chirinos (C) returning from concussion issues, Tim Beckham (SS) promoted from minors, Yunel Escobar (SS) trade from Marlins, Kelly Johnson (2B) free agent from Blue Jays, James Loney (1B) free agent from Red Sox.
Who left?*: 
J.P. Howell (P) free agent to Dodgers, Burke Badenhop (P) traded to Brewers, Wade Davis (P) traded to Royals, James Shields (P) traded to Royals, Carlos Pena (1B) free agent to Astros, Will Rhymes (3B) free agent to Nationals, Elliott Johnson (SS) traded to Royals, Drew Sutton (IF) free agent to Red Sox, Brandon Allen (LF) free agent to Rangers, B.J. Upton (CF) free agent to Braves, Reid Brignac (OF) traded to Rockies, Brooks Conrad (UT) unsigned free agent, Ben Francisco (UT) free agent to Indians, Jeff Keppinger (3B) free agent to White Sox.
What to expect: 
The Rays continue to lose key players, yet they always stay competitive.  Joe Maddon is one of the best managers in the game but rarely gets the attention for the great results he gets out of the talent he has.  It seems that he likes it that way.  They have continued to stay in the playoff hunt year after year despite a low budget, low attendance and low national attention.  Expect the Rays to stay in the playoff chase until late in the season but it would be unlikely they will actually get a wild card spot.
Why should you root for these guys?:
If you enjoy rooting for underdogs, this is your team.  Small budget, constant turn over of the roster and very little support from the local fans.  Evan Longoria and David Price are two truly great players who do not always get the recognition they deserve. 
Why might this season not turn out like Rays fans want?: 
Joe Maddon has been able to work miracles over the last few years but even he may be running out of tricks.  The team lost four more major pieces this off season (B.J. Upton, Wade Davis, James Shields and Carlos Pena).  Yunel Escobar was brought on board but there are rumors that his clubhouse presence is less than positive, which is something Maddon won't put up with.  They gave up James Shields and Wade Davis to the Royals and got Wil Meyers, Kansas City's top prospect, in return but it is unclear what he will contribute this year.
Don't expect too much from him: 
Yunel Escobar has a lot of talent but for some reason he doesn't seem to be able to stick with a team.  He was traded from the Blue Jays to the Marlins to the Rays within the span of a week and there were rumors that he was not the most likable teammate.  (No former team mates were specifically linked to the rumors.) 
Expect great things from: 
Evan Longoria and David Price are two great young talents with great careers ahead of them. In their short careers, both starting in 2008, they have been able to do what was thought impossible in 2007: they turned Tampa Bay into a consistent playoff contender.  With a healthy Longoria the Rays may again have some surprises up their sleeves.
Time for him to step up:
James Loney played a big part in the Dodgers 2008 and 2009 playoff teams and looked like he would be their first baseman for the next decade at least.  In fact, three years ago, as Joe Torre stepped away, Dodgers fans likely would have expected Matt Kemp to be dealt away before Loney. For whatever reason Loney's numbers started to slip and his consistency never recovered.  Dodgers fans continued to hope for Loney to get back on track but when Adrian Gonzalez became available Loney became expendable.  A new setting may be just what he needs to restart his career.  He has All Star potential. If he is able to fulfill that potential you can look for the Rays to challenge for a playoff spot.  
Is this his last chance?:
Roberto Hernandez (known as Fausto Carmona until last year), had some great years with the Indians.  When Cleveland came within one win of the World Series of 2007, Carmona was a 19 game winner.  His numbers have fallen drastically since then and the Indians finally cut ties. Hernandez is currently listed  as the sixth starter in a five man rotation.  He will need to fight to make the team.
Prediction:
3rd in AL East

Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox logo courtesy of sportslogo.net

Last Year's Record: 
69-93 (5th in AL East)
Who's new?*: 
Drake Britton (P) promoted from minor leagues, Ruby de la Rosa (P) trade from Dodgers, Ryan Dempster (P) free agent from Rangers, Joel Hanrahan (P) trade from Pirates, John Lackey (P) return from injury, Koji Uehara (P) free agent from Rangers, Allen Webster (P) promoted from minors, Alex Wilson (P) promoted from minors, Dan Butler (C) promoted from minors, David Ross (C) free agent from Braves, Christian Vazquez (C) promoted from minor leagues, Stephen Drew (SS) free agent from Athletics, Brock Holt (2B) trade from Pirates, Mike Napoli (IF/C/DH) free agent from Rangers, Jonny Gomes (OF) free agent from Athletics, Alex Hassan (OF) promoted from minors, Shane Victorino (OF) free agent from Dodgers.
Who left?*: 
Aaron Cook (P) free agent to Phillies, Scott Atchison (P) free agent to Mets, Zach Stewart (P) traded to Pirates, Rich Hill (P) free agent to Indians, Vicente Padilla (P) unsigned free agent, Daisuke Matsuzaka (P) free agent to Indians, Guillermo Quiroz(C) free agent to Giants, James Loney (1B) free agent to Rays, Danny Valencia (3B) contract sold to Orioles, Mike Aviles (UT) traded to Blue Jays, Ivan DeJesus (SS) traded to Pirates, Cody Ross (RF) free agent to Diamondbacks, Che-Hsuan Lin (CF) claimed off waivers by Astros, Scott Podsednik (UT) unsigned free agent, Nate Spears (OF) free agent to Indians, Jason Repko (OF) unsigned free agent,
What to expect: 
This is a rebuilding year.  Last year was a miserable, devastating follow up to a miserable, devastating 2011.  From the very first week of Spring Training it was clear this was not a good environment and several players asked the team to get rid of Valentine. Valentine felt that several coaches on his own team were sabotaging him and the ownership was nowhere to be found. Mike Aviles and Dustin Pedroia were the only two bright spots and Aviles was shipped off this winter.  Boston made some nice moves this offseason in signing Jonny Gomes, Shane Victorino, Steven Drew and trading for Joel Hanrahan.  Unfortunately, the environment in Boston has become so bad that it may take a few years to get things back in order. If John Farrell thought he would be able to ease into the regular season he was wrong.  He has already had a confrontation with Pitcher Jose Aceves who was loafing during batting practice.  It could be business as usual in Boston.
Why should you root for these guys?:
The Boston faithful suffered through a miserable 2012 season.  They had high hopes going into the season, believing the collapse at the end of 2011 was a fluke.  They stuck with their team and all they got was one of the worst Red Sox seasons since Grady Little was managing.  It is nice to see the faith of fans rewarded once in awhile.
Why might this season not turn out like Red Sox fans want?:
2013 has already started the way 2012 ended: problems in spring training. John Farrell is a great baseball mind but he had a ton of talent in Toronto and was not able to pass the Rays or even the Orioles in the standings.  How will he lead the Red Sox with less talent and more strife past four other teams?  The pitching staff, which should have been the team's strength the last few years has been disappointing and is even weaker now than it has been for nearly a decade.  Lester and Bucholz will need to finally fulfill their promise.
Don't expect too much from him: 
Mike Napoli was considered a good Catcher with potential All Star abilities until he destroyed Cardinal pitching in the 2011 World Series in front of a national audience.  From that point on the expectations went way up.  His 2012 season was closer to his career totals.  His average dropped from .320 to .227, his strikeouts went up from 85 to 125 his doubles dropped from 25 to 9 and his Home Runs dropped from 30 to 24.  Napoli signed with the Red Sox this offseason, although the process was held up considerably when Napoli failed a physical. Napoli will probably improve on the 2012 season but don't expect the performance he showed in the  2011 World Series.
Expect great things from:
Shane Victorino is one of those players that is loved by the fans who get to see him everyday but hated by everyone else.  He is a motor guy who gives his all every time he steps on the field.   With Victorino at the top of the lineup expect him to score a lot of runs and create opportunities for Pedroia, Ortiz and Napoli.
Time for him to step up:
Clay Bucholz showed flashes of brilliance when he first came to the majors but injuries have slowed his progress.  He has been up and down to the minors every year except 2011 and has only had one season (17-7 in 2010) where he has come close to being the pitcher everone expected.  The Sox will need Bucholz to be what everyone believes he can be if they have a chance to compete for a wild card spot.
Is this his last chance?:
David Ortiz is one of the few remaining links to the 2004 and 2007 World Series Championship teams.  He has been a consistent performer and fan favorite for a decade in Beantown.  Ortiz quietly had a very strong year in 2012 (.318, 23 HR) but he is 37 and injuries have started to take their toll.  For the last few years there have been whispers that he may be retiring soon.  When he does the Boston fans will lose a great player and a great presence in the Boston community.
Prediction:
4th Place in AL East


 Baltimore Orioles

Classic Orioles logo courtesy of sportslogos.net

Last Year's Record: 
93-69 (2nd in AL East). 
Texas Rangers in Wild Card Game. 
Lost to New York Yankees 3-2 in ALDS.
Who's new?*:
Mike Belfiore (P) promoted from minors, Zach Clark (P) promoted from minor leagues, Todd Redmond (P) off waivers from Reds, Russ Canzler (3B) off waivers from Yankees, Yamaico Navarro () trade from Pirates, Jonathan Schoop (3B) promoted from minor leagues, Danny Valencia (3B) trade from Red Sox.
Who left?*:
Joe Saunders (P) free agent to Seattle Mariners, Kevin Gregg (P) free agent to Dodgers, Dana Eveland (P) unsigned free agent, Randy Wolf (P) unsigned free agent, Zach Phillips (P) unsigned free agent, J.C. Romero (P), Mark Reynolds (1B/3B) free agent to Indians, Robert Andino (2b) trade to Mariners, Omar Quintanilla (UT) free agent to Mets, Endy Chavez (OF) free agent to Royals, Steven Tolleson (UT) free agent to the White Sox, Bill Hall (UT) free agent to Angels
What to expect:
Going into this season with the same expectations as last spring training is probably the best mindset for the Orioles fan.  Expect them to compete hard but don't look for a playoff spot.  They are still in a tough division.  The Yankees are still the Yankees and the Blue Jays are now much more talented with something to prove. The Orioles are still the same team, with some minor improvements, and that may or may not translate into the Orioles magic of last season.  If any manager can pull another rabbit out of the hat it will be Buck Showalter.
Why should you root for these guys?:
There are some players on this team that may end up in the Orioles Hall of Fame someday.  Matt Wieters, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis are well on their way to being Orioles legends on the same level as Boog Powell, Dave McNally, Mike Cuellar, Brady Anderson and Ben McDonald.  The Orioles have been rebuilding for the better part of 15 years and the process finally gave fruit in 2012.  We will have to wait and see how much of that was smoke and mirrors and how much will be a consistent formula.
Why might this season not turn out like Orioles fans want?:
Last year was a magical year full of exciting extra inning, one run games and players no one expected to contribute stepping up to help the Orioles win.  For the Orioles to win last year they used 12 different starting pitchers.  Of those 12 only 6 won above 50% of their decisions and only one (Wei-Yin Chen) hit double digits in wins.  Their top three starters (Chen, Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzales) certainly are a reason for Bird Land fans to be excited but it will take a lot of magic to repeat last year.
Don't expect too much from him: 
Manny Machado was thrown into the heat of a pennant race and told that he was no longer a Shortstop, he was now a third baseman before he had time to think about it.  He gave the Orioles exactly what they needed in the 51 games he played.  The downside is that he has now raised the expectations of what he can do based on a small sample size.  He should be a good third baseman and may be the best the O's have had at the hot corner since Cal Ripken's last few years, however, don't expect him to challenge for a batting title or Home Run crown.  Expect him to be an above average every day third baseman who will still be learning the position.
Expect great things from:
Adam Jones and Matt Wieters both had tremendous years in 2012.  Wieters proved he is the best catcher in the American League and Jones was in the MVP discussion until Cabrera and Trout took over the season.  Regardless of what the Orioles do, O's fans should enjoy the great play of two potentially all time great Orioles.
Time for him to step up:
Ryan Flaherty played a total of 77 games last season (only 28 at second base), trading time with Robert Andino and Brian Roberts.  Andino was traded to Seattle in the offseason and Roberts has health issues that have severely limited his playing time over the last five years. Flaherty will now be the everyday second baseman with high expectations.
Is this his last chance?: 

Chris Davis is in a very similar situation to Ryan Flaherty.  Davis has a strong bat that Showalter wants in the lineup everyday but Showalter struggled to find a place for him to play.  He saw time at DH, Firstbase, Rightfield and Leftfield with no permanent spot.  Showalter allowed Mark Reynolds, who had a great September in the Orioles playoff push, to leave the team by free agency.  The decision drew a lot of criticism but Showalter was sure that Davis belonged at Firstbase.  Davis will need to prove he can play everyday or the Orioles may be looking for a replacement.

Prediction: 5th Place in AL East

*-All roster changes are based on active rosters at the end of 2012 and active rosters as of the week of 2/18.  Teams may have non-roster invitees in camp who are not listed in the "Who's New?" category.