Showing posts with label Toronto Blue Jays. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Toronto Blue Jays. Show all posts

Saturday, March 7, 2015

2015 American League East Preview

***The Division Preview that follows is not betting advice in any way shape or form.  Please do not bet any money based in any part on these predictions.***

Don't forget to check out the National League EastNational League Central and National League West previews and check back next week for the American League Central.




Toronto Blue Jays

Who's New?: 
CATCHER/INFIELDER
Russell Martin, C (free agent from Pirates)
Justin Smoak, 1B (Waiver claim from Mariners)
Chris Colabello, 1B (Waiver Claim from Twins)
Daric Barton, 1B (Free Agent from Athletics)
Josh Donaldson, 3B (Trade from Athletics)
Ramon Santiago, IF (Free Agent from Reds)
OUTFIELDER
Andy Dirks, OF (Free agent from Tigers)
Ezequiel Carrera, OF (Free Agent from Tigers)
Ryan Kalish, OF (Free Agent from Cubs)
Caleb Gindl, OF (Free Agent from Brewers)
Michael Saunders, OF (Trade from Mariners)
Chris Dickerson, OF (Free Agent from Indians).
Dayan Viciedo, OF (Free Agent from White Sox)
STARTING PITCHERS
Marco Estradada, SP (Trade from Brewers)
Jeff Francis, SP (Free agent from Yankees)
Liam Hendricks, SP (Trade from Royals)
Johan Santana, SP (Free Agent from Blue Jays)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Wilton Lopez, RP (Free Agent from Rockies)
Preston Guilmet, RP (Waiver Claim from Pirates)
Scott Barnes, RP (From Rangers
Luis Perez, RP (Free Agent from Braves)
Matt West, RP (Waiver Claim from Rangers)
Greg Burke, RP (Free Agent from Rockies)
Who Left: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Juan Francisco, 3B (Free Agent to Red Sox)
Adam Lind, 1B (Trade to Brewers)
Nessy Santiago, C (Trade to Royals)
Brett Lawrie, 3B (Trade to Athletics)
Dan Johnson, 1B (Free Agent to Astros)
George Kottaras, C (Free Agent to White Sox)
Brett Wallace, IF (Free Agent to Padres)
Andy LaRoche, IF (Free Agent to White Sox)
George Kottaras, C (Free Agent to White Sox)
OUTFIELDERS
Anthony Gose, OF (Trade to Tiger)
Cole Gilespie, OF (Free Agent to Marlins)
Dustin Mastroiani, OF (Free agent to Phillies)
Melky Cabrera, OF (Free Agent to White Sox)
John Mayberry, Jr, OF (Free Agent to Mets)
Colby Rasmus, OF (Free Agent to Astros)
Adron Chambers, OF (Free Agent to Cubs)
STARTING PITCHERS
Brad Mills, SP (Free agent to A's)
Kendall Graveman, SP (Trade to Athletics)
Brandon Morrow, SP (Free Agent to Padres)
Sean Nolin, SP (Trade to Athletics)
J.A. Happ, SP (Trade to Mariners)
Radhames Liz, SP (Free Agent to Pirates)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Cassey Jansen, RP (Free Agent to Nationals)
Dustin McGowan, RP (Free Agent to Dodgers)
Sergio Santos, RP (Free Agent to Dodgers)
Raul Valdes, RP (Unsigned Free Agent)
What to Expect?:
I feel as though I have been saying this for the last four years but the Jays could be on the verge of something special.  In 2013 they looked like they were going all in when they picked up R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle and Jose Reyes.  It didn't work out because it may have been to much change at once.  To their credit they stuck with it and started to see results last year. A sustained winning streak had them in the playoff race late into the season.  They have added Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin, Justin Smoak and Michael Saunders to the talent pool and this could be the tipping point. The lineup has a nice combination of speed (Izturis, Reyes and rookie Dalton Pompey) and power (Bautista, Encarnacion, Martin and Donaldson).
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
Toronto has been putting everything they can into rebuilding this team.  They have shown that they are dedicated to this process and it would be nice to see them get the results they had been working towards
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Blue Jays Fans Want?:
For the same reason that it didn't work out the last two years.  Buehrle, Bautista and Reyes are injury prone and Justin Smoak is a big question mark.  Smoak could benefit from a change of scenery and reduced expectations or he could prove that his time in Seattle was the real Justin Smoak.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
R.A. Dickey had a Cy Young season with the Mets in 2012 but his two seasons in Toronto have been less than spectacular.  Expect him to eat innings, 200+, and to win about 15 but don't expect another Cy Young.
Expect Great Things From:
Russell Martin was the Dodgers' Catcher of the future until a serious hip injury led them to take a chance with A.J. Ellis as their new Catcher of the future.  Since then (with the exception of a few off years here and there with the Yankees) Martin has proven that he is a great Catcher.  Expect him to give the pitching staff the attitude it needs to win.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Justin Smoak was sent from the Rangers to the Mariners as part of the Cliff Lee deal  in 2010 and was immediately pointed to as the future of the franchise.  He failed to live up to those expectations.  A change of scenery and a reduced sense of expectations may be exactly what Smoak needs to succeed.
Prediction: 1st Place



Boston Red Sox
Who's New:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS:
Pablo Sandoval, 3B (Free Agent from Giants)
Hanley Ramirez, SS (Free Agent from Dodgers)
Juan Francisco, 3B (Waiver Claim from Blue Jays)
Ryan Hannigan, C (Trade from Padres)
Luke Montz, UT (Free Agent from Athletics)
Jeff Bianchi, IF (Free Agent From Brewers)
Humberto Quintero, C (Free Agent from Mariners)
Bryan LaHair, 1B (Free Agent from Indians)
OUTFIELDERS:
Quintin Berry, OF (Free Agent from Orioles)
STARTING PITCHERS:
Justin Masterson (SP, Free Agent from Cardinals),
Rick Porcello, SP (Trade from Tigers)
Wade Miley, SP (Trade from Diamondbacks)
Casey Crosby, SP (Free Agent from Tigers)
Dana Eveland, SP (Free Agent from Mets)
Felipe Paulino, SP (Free Agent from White Sox)
Robbie Ross, JR (Trade from Rangers)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Anthony Varvaro, RP (Trade from Braves)
Zeke Spurill, RP (Trade from Padres)
Mitchell Boggs, RP (Free Agent from Giants)
Craig Breslow, RP (Free Agent from Mets)
Alexi Ogundo, RP (Free Agent frm Rangers)
Jess Todd, RP (Free Agent from Diamondbacks)
Who Left:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Ryan Roberts, 3B (free agent to Royals)
Carlos Rivera, IF (Free agent to Mariners)
Ivan DeJesus, IF (Free Agent to Reds)
Ryan Lavarnway, C (Waiver Claim by  Dodgers)
Johnathan Herrera, IF (Free Agent to Cubs)
David Ross, C (Free Agent to CUbs)
Wil Middlebrooks, 3B (Trade to Padres)
Juan Francisco, IF (Free Agent to Rays)
Dan Butler, C (Trade to Nationals)
OUTFIELDERS
Corey Brown, OF (Free Agent to Rays)
Yoenis Cespedes, OF (Trade to Tigers)
STARTING PITCHERS
Allen Webster, SP (Traded to Diamondbacks)
Anthony Ranaudo, SP (Trade to Rangers)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Ryan Verdugo, RP (Free Agent to A's)
John Ely, RP (Free Agent to Brewers)
Alex Wilson, RP (Trade to Tigers)
Ruby De La Rosa, RP (Trade to Diamondbacks)
Brayan Villareal, RP (Free agent to Twins)
Burke Badenhop, RP (Free Agent to Reds)
Winter Headlines:
Sox make big moves to get back on top of weakening AL East.
What to Expect?:
This division is suddenly very weak.  What was once the terror of the Major Leagues is now full of average or below average teams.  With that in mind, the Red Sox have improved themselves  greatly and will likely be most experts picks to win the division.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Red Sox Fans Want?:
Although the team has done quite a bit to improve themselves there are still quite a few questions. Age is starting to catch up with Victorino and Ortiz.  Rusney Castillo is a big question mark in center field and having Hanley Ramirez play the Green Monster in Left Field could be an adventure.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Rich Porcello had a great rookie season in 2009. Since then he seems to have alternating spectacular and poor or average seasons. The Tigers relied on Porcello quite a bit last season but he is really more of a fourth or fifth starter.  The Sox depth chart currently show Porcello projected as the second starter behind Bucholtz.  Don't expect Porcello to replace John Lester's numbers.
Expect Great Things From:
Dustin Pedroia had a slow year in 2014 but is coming back healthy for 2015.  Although David Ortiz is generally considered the leader of the team, it is Pedroia who truly get them moving.
Is This His Last Chance?:
David Ortiz will turn 40 about a month after the 2015 season ends.  With a highly paid Hanley Ramirez playing out of position in Right Field and a highly paid but less than Gold Glove fielding Pablo Sandoval playing third, the team may be forced to move Sandoval to DH, limiting Big Papi's At Bats.
Prediction: 2nd place. Wild Card



Baltimore Orioles
Who's New:
CATCHER/INFIELDERS
Paul Janish, IF (Free Agent from Royals)
J.P. Arincibia, C (Free Agent from Rangers)
Everth Cabrera, SS (Free Agent from Padres)
OUTFIELDERS
Matt Tuiasasopo, IF/OF (Free Agent from White Sox)
Chris Parmalee, OF (Free Agent from Twins)
Nolan Reimold, OF (Free Agent rom Diamondbacks)
Jayson Nix, OF (Free Agent from Royals)
STARTING PITCHERS
None.
RELIEF PITCHERS
Pat McCoy, RP (Waiver Claim from Tigers)
Scott Barnes, RP (Trade from Indians)
Pat McCoy, RP (Waiver claim from Tigers)
Wesley Wright, RP (Free Agent from Cubs)
Chaz Roe, RP (Free Agent from Pirates)
Dane De La Rosa, RP (Free Agent from Angels)
Cesar Cabral, RP (Free Agent from Yankees)
Pedro Beato, RP (Free Agent from Braves)
Who Left: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Cord Phelps, IF (Free Agent to Phillies)
Numan Romero, IF (Free Agent to Athletics)
Nick Hundley, C (Free Agent to Rockies)
Kelly Johnson, IF (Free Agent to Braves)
David Adams, IF (Free Agent to Marlins)
Niuman Romero, IF (Free Agent to Athletics)
Alexi Casillia, SS (Free Agent to Rays)
Steve Lombardozzi, 2B (Trade to Pirates)
OUTFIELDERS
Nick Markakis, OF (Free Agent to Braves)
Nelson Cruz, OF (Free Agent to Mariners)
Quintin Berry, OF (Free Agent to Red Sox)
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana, SP (Free Agent to Bue Jays
Joe Saunders, SP (Free Agent to Mariners)
Anthony Vasquez, SP (Free Agent to Phillies)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Josh Stinson, RP (Free Agent to Pirates)
Andrew Miller, RP (Free Agent to Yankees)
Julio DePaula, RP (Free Agent to Diamondbacks)
Robert Coello, RP (Free Agent to Giants)
Evan Meek, RP (Free Agent to Nationals)
Ramon Ramirez, RP (Unsigned Free Agent)
Winter Headlines:  
Machado, Wieters and Davis want to make up for missing the ALCS.
What to Expect?: 
The Orioles nearly reached the World Series last season with no real ace and without their starting First Baseman, Third Baseman and Catcher.  With a weak division the Orioles are looking to continue their success under Buck Showalter.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
Baltimore is a great baseball city and the fans there have been starved for success for decades.  It  would be great for the loyal O's fans to get enjoy what has not been seen in Baltimore in over 30 years.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Orioles Fans Want?:
Pitching.  Plain and simple. Showalter is somehow able to get the most out of his players but there is not a true ace on this staff.  There are a few arms, including Dylan Bundy, in the minors that the team could need if they are going to improve on last year.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Matt Wieters is a tremendously talented Catcher and Buck Showalter trusts him implicitly behind the plate.  What he cold have done to help this team last post season is something we can never know.  Expect Wieters to contribute to any success thisteam has but give him time to regain his form.
Expect Great Things From:
The Orioles hit close to rock bottom in 2007.  The one bright spot of the year was Erik Bedard. At   13-5 he was the future of the O's franchise.  When Bedard was shipped to Seattle in the offseason Orioles fans shook their head in confusion.  What they got in return were George Sherill (an Orioles All Star Representative), Chris Tillman (their current "ace") and Adam Jones.  Jones is now the leader and future of this franchise.  Some day he may be enshrined with the likes of Palmer, Murray, Ripken and the Robinsons.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Ubaldo Jimenez was a big 2014 free agent signing for the O's but the results were less than impressive.  After a very near Cy Young year with the Rockies in 2010, Jimenez's performance has steadily declined.  If he fails to perform again this year he could be out of chances.
Prediction: 3rd Place.  Wild Card






New York Yankees
Who's New: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS:
Didi Gregorious, SS (Trade from Diamondbacks)
Garrett Jones, 1B (Trade from Marlins)
Cole Figueroa, 2B (Free Agent from Rays)
Nick Noonan, IF (Free Agent from Giants)
OUTFIELDERS
Chris Young, OF (Free Agent from Mets)
STARTING PITCHERS
Nathan Eovaldi, SP (Trade from Marlins)
Scott Baker, SP (Free Agent from Rangers)
Kyle Davies, SP (Free Agent from Indians)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Justin Wilson, RP (Trade from Pirates)
Andrew Miller, RP (Free Agent from Orioles)
David Carpenter, RP (Trade from Braves)
Johnny Barbato, RP (Trade from Padres)
Chasen Shreve, RP (Trade from Braves)
Jared Burton, RP (Free Agent from Twins)
Chris Martin, RP (Trade from Rockies)
Who Left:
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Francisco Cervelli, C. (Trade to Pirates)
Derek Jeter, SS (Retired)
Brian Roberts, 2B (Retired)
Martin Prado, 3B (Trade to Marlins)
Zelous Wheeler, 3B (Unsigned Free Agent)
OUTFIELDERS
Zolio Almonte, OF (Free agent to Braves)
Alfonso Soriano, OF (retired)
Antoan Richardson, OF (Free Agent to Rangers)
Scott Sizemore, OF(Free Agent to Marlins)
Ichiro Suzuki, OF (Free Agent to Marlins)
Eury Perez, OF (Waiver Claim by Braves)
STARTING PITCHERS
Shane Green, SP (Trade to Tigers)
David Phelps, SP (Trade to Marlins)
Brandon McCarthy, SP (Free Agent to Dodgers)
David Huff, SP (Free Agent to Dodgers)
Hiroki Kuroda, SP (Unsigned Free Agent)
RELIEF PITCHERS
,Jeff Francis, RP (Free Agent to Blue Jays)
David Robertson, RP (Free Agent to White Sox)
Shawn Kelly, RP (Traded to Padres)
Josh Outman, RP (Free Agent to Braves)
Cesar Cabral, RP (Free Agent to Orioles)
David Robertson, RP (Free Agent to White Sox)
Chris LeRoux, RP (Free Agent to Brewers)
David Herndon, RP (Free Agent to Brewers)
Rich Hill, RP (Free Agent to Nationals)
Alfredo Aceves, RP (Unsigned Free Agent)
Matt Daley, RP (Unsigned Free Agent)
Jim Miller, RP (Unsigned Free Agent)
Heath Bell, RP (Free Agent to Natonals)
Preston Claiborne, RP (Waiver Claim by Marlins)
Winter Headlines:  
Jeter is gone, A-Rod is back.
Yankees to retire three more numbers of Pettite, Williams and Posada.  At what point will they go to triple digits?
What to Expect?:
This is not a very strong division which will play to the Yankees' advantage.  They do have some talent but they also have no proven leader and a lot of aging, injury prone players struggling to stay on the field.  This season could be the tipping point between another playoff run or the start of a 1980s era drought.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?: 
There are several players on this team that have played for years and, although coming close,  have never won a World Series.  For players like Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, Garret Jones and  Chris Capuano it would be a nice touch to already successful careers.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Yankees Fans Want?:
In the Yankees' universe the only successful season is a World Series.  This team, with age, injuries, and lack of leadership will fall far short of that goal.  They could surprise some and win a Wild Card spot but it would take a lot of things falling their way to advance in the playoffs.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Alex Rodriguez has been away from the game for more than a year and was very concerned with a degenerative hip issue in his last season.  Alex is chasing 700 Home Runs for his career but would likely need at least three more years to do so.
Is this his last chance?:
Mark Teixiera is signed through the end of 2016 but his production numbers have been on  a consistent decline over the last few years.  With his career winding down Tex may not have mayny more opportunities to win it all.
Prediction: 4th Place




Tampa Bay Rays
Who's New: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Bobby Wilson, C (Free Agent from Diamondbacks)
Renee Rivera, C (Trade from Padres)
Eugenio Velez, UT (Free Agent from Brewers)
Asdrubal Cabrera, SS (Free Agent from Nationals)
Alexi Casillia, SS (Free Agent from Orioles)
Juan Francisco, IF (Free Agent from Red Sox)
Jake Elmore, IF (Free Agent from Reds)
John Jaso, C (Trade from Athletics)
OUTFIELDERS
Corey Brown, OF (Free Agent from Red Sox)
Steven Souza, OF (Trade from Nationals)
STARTING PITCHERS
None
RELIEF PITCHERS
Michael Kohn, RP (free agent from Angels)
Ernesto Frieri, RP (Free agent from Pirates)
Kevin Jepsen, RP (Trade from Angels)
Jose Dominguez, RP (Trade from Dodgers)
Jhan Marinez, RP (Free Agent from Dodgers)
Ronald Bellisario, RP (Free Agent from White Sox)
Who Left:
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Cole Figueroa, 2B (Free Agent to Yankees)
Jerry Sands, IF/DH (Free Agent to Indians)
Ali Solis, C (Free Agent to Dodgers)
Jose Molina, C (Unsigned Free Agent)
Ben Zobrist, IF (Trade to Athletics)
Yunel Escobar, Ss (Trade to Athletics)
OUTFIELDERS
Wil Myers, OF (Trade to Padres)
Matt Joyce, OF (Trade to Angels)
STARTING PITCHERS
Jeremy Hellickson, SP (Trade to Diamondbacks)
Erik Bedard, SP (Free Agent to Dodgers)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Cesar Ramos, RP (Trade to Angels)
Joel Peralta, RP (Trade to Dodgers)
Michael Kohn, RP (Free Agent to Braves)
Josh Lueke, RP (Unsigned Free Agents)
Juan Carlos Oviedo, RP (Free Agent to Rangers)
Winter Headlines:  
Loss of Maddon could be biggest loss in Rays short history.
What to Expect?:
Rays fans should expect a return to the pre-2008 days.  With the exception of Longoria and Desmond Jennings, the Rays have little proven talent on the team.  They are in a clear rebuilding mode and may have a long climb back to the top.  Working to their benefit is the mediocrity of the other teams in this division.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
With a small budget and heading into a rebuild the Rays are clear Cinderella Story material.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Rays Fans Want?:
This team is heading into a rebuilding.  It is likely that the Rays will be on the down trend for the next few years.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Drew Smyly was the big piece in the David Price deal and the Tigers thought very highly of him.  He will be a very good starter but the lack of support behind him will likely limit his success.
Expect Great Things From:
Evan Longoria is a special player.  Regardless of the won-loss record expect Longoria to represent the team with class and probably in the All Star Game as well.
Is This His Last Chance?:
James Loney came up to the Dodgers with high expectations but his lack of power production led to an exit from Los Angeles.  He has had a few moderately successful  seasons in Tampa Bay but with the Rays in rebuilding mode Loney may not have many opportunities to prove he is part of their future.
Prediction: 5th Place




*-Please be aware that these predictions are based on the rosters as set in the beginning of March.  There are still several key free agents unsigned which could alter these previews.  Also, injuries during spring training could alter my outlook.  Check back next week for the AL Central Preview and continue following to see my final predictions at the start of the season.


TRIVIA QUESTION:
The Orioles won the AL East in 2014 for the first time since 1997.  Including these two division titles, dating back to the start of division play in 1969, how many times has Baltimore won the East?

Answer to Last Week's Question:
The National League Central has had a player lead the league in RBI 7 times:
Jeff Bagwell (1994)
Sammy Sosa (1998)
Mark McGwire (1999)
Sammy Sosa (2001)
Lance Berkman (2002)
Prince Fielder (2009)
Albert Pujols (2010)

Saturday, February 15, 2014

2014 American League East Preseason Preview

***The Division Preview that follows is not betting advice in any way shape or form.  Please do not bet any money based in any part on these predictions.***




Boston Red Sox
Who's New:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS:
A.J. Pierzynski (C) free agent from Rangers,
Jonathan Herrera (IF) trade from Rockies
OUTFIELDERS:
None
STARTING PITCHERS:
None
RELIEF PITCHERS
Tommy Layne (RP) free agent from Padres,
Burke Badenhop (RP) trade from Brewers,
Edward Mujica (RP) free agent from Cardinals,
Chris Resop (RP) free agent from Athletics
Who Left:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Jacoby Ellsbury (OF) free agent to Yankees,
Jarrod Saltalamachia (C) free agent to Marlins,
John McDonald (IF) free agent to Angels
Jonathan Diaz (IF) free agent to Blue Jays
Stephen Drew (SS) unsigned free agent
OUTFIELDERS
 Quintin Berry (OF) free agent to Orioles,
STARTING PITCHERS
None
RELIEF PITCHERS
Jose Contreras (RP) free agent to Rangers,
Franklin Morales (RP) trade to Rockies,
Alfredo Aceves (RP) Free agent to Orioles,
Matt Thornton (RP) waiver claim by Yankees
Brandon Lyon (RP) free agent to Angels
Andrew Bailey (RP) unsigned free agent
Joel Hanrahan (RP) unsigned free agent
Winter Headlines:  
How much will the line up be revamped after World Series win?
What to Expect?:
At the start of the offseason there were questions about how much different this team would be on opening day.  There were several big contributors to the World Series victory who were free agents.  The team did lose Stephen Drew (still unsigned as of this writing) Saltalamachia and Jacoby Ellsbury but they replaced Saltalamachia with the fiesty A.J. Pierzynski.  The starting rotation, which stepped up last year, has returned almost unchanged and Koji Uehara has become the closer that the Orioles had hoped they were getting when they signed him in 2009.  The Red Sox should be a strong contender again this year.  Until someone knocks them off the upper perch in this tight division Boston has to remain the favorite here.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
The Red Sox nation (and most of the baseball nation) fell in love with the 2003-2004 Red Sox team.  After watching them suffer through the loss of Aaron Boone's Home Run and overcoming the Yankees to win the World Series, the team that called themselves "a bunch of idiots" is beloved.  This team should be just as beloved.  Although few of the idiots remain this Red Sox group is a professional group.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Red Sox Fans Want?:
The Sox will go as far as their pitching rotation will take them and that is the big question.  John Lester seems to be good for 15 or 16 wins every year.  Jake Peavey pitched well for the Sox but can he stay healthy all year?  Lackey is now 35 and although he had double digit wins last year, he also lost 13.  Bucholz had an amazing 12-1 record in only 16 games in 2013 but his arm continues to be a question.  Felix Doubront showed up big in the clutch and had a strong season but can he be consistent?  If the pitchers reach their potential as they did last year the Red Sox could repeat.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
David Ortiz had an unbelievable season last year, reaching the 30 HR, 100 RBI mark only a year after having only 23 HR and 60 RBI.  It is obvious the Red Sox success could not have happened without the magic moments Ortiz provided.  The question is how long can it go on. In his 20th professional season, Ortiz appears to still be going strong.  Expect Ortiz to provide leadership and to help Pedroia in guiding the ship but don't expect another 30 HR/100 RBI season.
Expect Great Things From:
Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz have become the face of the franchise.  Despite the magic of the 2004 "idiots" featuring Pedro, Manny, Varitek and Damon, it is Pedroia who has become the lasting monument of success in the Red Sox current run.  Pedroia has already won a Rookie of the Year and MVP award.  Expect him to continue playing at an MVP level.
Is This His Last Chance?:
A.J. Pierzynski is entering his 20th year in professional baseball.  He has been an All Star and a World Series champion.  After eight years in Chicago he moved to the Rangers last year and was a big reason the team made the playoffs.  After one year in the Texas heat A.J. has moved on to Boston with the World Champions.  As great as A.J. is father time has to catch up with him at some point.  Is this the time it happens?
Prediction: 1st in American League East


Tampa Bay Rays
Who's New: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Ryan Hannigan (C) trade from Reds,
Logan Forsythe (IF) trade from Padres,
Jayson Nix (IF) free agent from Yankees
Wilson Betemit (3B) free agent from Orioles
OUTFIELDERS
None.
STARTING PITCHERS
Nathan Karns (SP) trade from Nationals
RELIEF PITCHERS
Mark Lowe (RP) free agent from Nationals,
Heath Bell (RP) trade from Diamondbacks,
Grant Balfour (RP) free agent from Athletics,
Brad Boxberger (RP) trade from Padres,
Who Left:
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Kelly Johnson (IF) free agent to Yankees,
Ryan Roberts (IF) free agent to Cubs,
Luke Scott (DH) unsigned free agent
Jose Lobatan (C) trade to Nationals
OUTFIELDERS
Jason Bourgeois (OF) free agent to Reds,
Delmon Young (OF) Free agent to Orioles
Shelley Duncan (OF) free agent to Diamondbacks
Sam Fuld (OF) free agent to Athletics
Freddy Guzman (OF) free agent to Yankees
STARTING PITCHERS
Roberto Hernandez (SP) free agent to Phillies,
Jesse Hahn (SP) trade to Padres,
RELIEF PITCHERS
Wesley Wright (RP) free agent to Cubs
Jamey Wright (RP) free agent to Dodgers,
Jesse Crain (RP) free agent to Astros,
Ramon Ramirez (RP) free agent to Mariners,
Alex Torres (RP) trade to Padres,
Fernando Rodney (RP) free agent to Mariners
Winter Headlines:  
What is the price for Price? (David Price was rumored to be on the trade block)
Meyers a Royal Pain (Wil Meyers, traded from the Royals for James Shields last winter, won Rookie of the Year while Kansas City missed the playoffs, again).
What to Expect?:
With this organization there is nothing to do but wait and see what happens.  Every year you can look at this team and say they have lost too many key players to compete with the big guys and yet every year they are right there at the end.  They still have key players like Loney, Longoria, Price and rookie of the year Wil Meyers but they have done little to improve.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
When you talk about underdogs this organization is the definition.  No money.  Sporadic fan support (the die hard fans are truly amazing but there don't seem to be enough of them in the area).Constantly losing key players to other teams.  Yet somehow Joe Madden is always managing to find a way to stay in the playoff race.  If you like rooting for the little guy you will never make a better choice than this team.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Rays Fans Want?:
The Rays always seem to find a way to stay competitive but if your team is not willing to spend at the right time (ask Orioles fans) it makes it difficult to win.  If the Rays want to finally get over the hill and win it all they may need to take on salary, something ownership has been reluctant to do in the past.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Grant Balfour is returning to Tampa Bay, where he helped the Rays in their World Series push in 2008.  After several successful years in Oakland as the team's closer he is returning home.  Balfour is intense on the mound and, as we saw against the Tigers in the playoffs last year, he can get himself into some trouble.  Balfour certainly is an improvement over the option of Heath Bell as the closer but don't expect the season that Fernando Rodney had a few years ago.  Don't forget the Orioles passed on Balfour after a physical.  Balfour says the shoulder, which has caused problems for him in the past, is fine.  The Orioles said they were concerned about the shoulder but the knee was the real problem.
Expect Great Things From:
There have been three key pieces of this team since the start of their playoff run in 2008 and you can always count on great things from all of them:  Longoria, Price and Maddon.  As long as these three are together you can never count this team out.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Heath Bell was, at one point, the best closer in the game.  That was in San Diego with a bad team.  He moved to Miami for the big bucks and was immediately in a controversy with manager Ozzie Guillen.  The change of scenery last year was supposed to help but Bell was not able to regain the magic that gave him three straight 40 save seasons.  Rays fans should expect Bell to contribute but don't expect 40 saves.
Prediction: 2nd in American League East






New York Yankees
Who's New: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS:
Yamaico Navarro (IF) free agent from Orioles, 
Kelly Johnson (IF) free agent from Rays,
Brian McCann (C) free agent from Braves, 
Brian Roberts (2B) free agent from Orioles, 
Scott Sizemore (2B) free agent from Athletics,
OUTFIELDERS
Jacoby Ellsbury (OF) free agent from Red Sox,
Carlos Beltran (OF) free agent from Cardinals, 
STARTING PITCHERS
Masahiro Tanaka (SP) free agent from Japan,
RELIEF PITCHERS
Robert Coello (RP) free agent from Angels, 
Matt Thornton (RP) free agent from Red Sox,
Chris Leroux (RP) free agent from Pirates
Who Left:
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Reid Brignac (SS) free agent to Phillies,
Robinson Cano (2B) free agent to Mariners, 
Chris Stewart (C) trade to Pirates,
David Adams (IF) free agent to Indians,
Brent Lillibridge (IF) free agent to Rangers, 
Alberto Gonzalez (IF) free agent to Padres
Kevin Youkilis (3B) free agent to Japan, 
Mark Reynolds (3B) free agent to Brewers
Luis Cruz (IF) released
Travis Hafner (DH) unsigned free agent
OUTFIELDERS
Curtis Granderson (OF) free agent to Mets, 
 Melky Mesa (OF) free agent to Royals,
Brennan Boesch (OF) free agent to Angels
Fernando Martinez (OF) free agent to Astros
Vernon Wells (OF) released
STARTING PITCHERS
Andy Pettite (SP) retired, 
Phil Hughes (P) free agent to Twins, 
David Huff (SP) traded to Giants, 
Jayson Nix (OF) free agent to Rays, 
Lyle Overbay (OF) free agent to Brewers, 
RELIEF PITCHERS
Mariano Rivera (P) retired,
Mike Zagurski (RP) free agnt to Indians,
Joba Chamberlain (P) free agent to Tigers,
Boone Logan (RP) free agent to Rockies,
Chris Bootcheck (RP) free agent to Phillies,
Winter Headlines:  
No Mo, Pettite.  (Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettite retire)
Jeter says his legs are rested.  (Derek Jeter says he is ready to come back)
How's first, who's at second, I don't know's at third. (Teixeira is recovering from an injury, Cano is gone and A-Rod is suspended for the season.  The delay in reaching the decision made it difficult to find a third baseman replacement)
What to Expect?:
Yankees fans should keep their expectations low for this season but stay excited for the near future.  The addition of Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran will certainly help an offense that struggled last year.  The problem this year is the number of questions that remain.  The biggest question is the infield but the rotation and bull pen are questionable as well.  Sabathia struggled last year and there have been concerns that his velocity is down.  Kuroda is getting older and although he is a great pitcher his won-loss record is not that great.  Only once in his career has he had a winning record (16-11 in 2012).  The team spent huge money on Tanaka but there is no guarantee that he will be able to adjust to the new surroundings.  True, the Yankees have added a lot of big names but with each one comes a question. The health of McCann and Ellsbury is unsure and the team seems to be overloaded with outfielders and overloaded with questions in the infield.  With five outfielders (Gardner, Ichiro, Beltran, Soriano and Ellsbury) that means someone will be on the bench.  For star players used to playing every day this could turn out to be a disaster.  On top of all of this is the hovering presence of Alex Rodriguez.  A-Rod swears he will be at Spring Training to work out with the team, continuing the distraction he has already caused.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
This is not the evil empire.  This is a group of guys who are likable, professional and many are veterans looking to win their first World series.  Ichiro, Beltran, and McCann have all come close before but have never been able to make it over the hill.  Jeter, clearly near the end of a legendary career, would like nothing more than to win another title.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Yankees Fans Want?:
The biggest question is the infield.  With an over crowded outfield (Soriano, Carlos Beltran, Ichiro,Brent Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury) will the Yankees employ a defensive shift of six outfielders and Jeter at Short?
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Mark Texeira is clearly one of the best First Basemen (and defensively is probably the best) when he is healthy.  The past two seasons have been frustrating for Tex as he has battled through wrist problems that caused him to miss considerable time.  The rumor is that the surgery he had to repair a wrist tendon was a success and it would be nice to see him perform at full strength.  The best approach is to take a wait and see attitude before you pencil him in for an MVP.
Expect Great Things From:
Nothing that Derek Jeter does will surprise me again.  I will be honest, I don't like the Yankees.  To be even more honest, for a very long time I hated Derek Jeter.  I used to feel that he was over rated, over hyped by the New York media and not the legend he was built up to be.  And I will admit that I was 100% wrong.  Derek Jeter is one of the classiest players this sport has seen in years.  He may have had a lot of success at a very young age but he was succcessful because he is one of the hardest working people in sports.  Jeter was the first Yankee to get 3000 hits.  He has never won an MVP.  He has made 13 All Star Games, won five gold gloves, five silver slugger awards and been one of the great ambassadors of the sport.  None of that matters to Jeter.  The only number that matters to Jeter is 6.  He has won five World Series titles.  The only thing he focuses on when he is on the field is the fact that he hasn't gotten number 6 yet.
Prediction: 3rd in AL East




Baltimore Orioles
Who's New:  
CATCHER/INFIELDERS
Johnny Monell (C) trade from Giants,
Jemile Weeks (2B) trade from A's,
Chris Marrero (1B) free agent from Nationals,
Alex Gonzalez (IF) free agent from Brewers
OUTFIELDERS
Quintin Berry (OF) free agent from Red Sox,
Xavier Paul (OF) free agent from Reds,
Delmon Young (OF) free agent from Rays
STARTING PITCHERS
Aaron Laffey (SP) free agent from Brewers
RELIEF PITCHERS
Brad Brach (RP) free agent from Padres,
Edgmer Escalona (RP) free agent from Rockies,
Francisco Paguero (RP) free agent from Giants,
Ryan Webb (RP) free agent from Marlins.
Who Left: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Dan Johnson (1B) free agent to Blue Jays,
Alex Liddi (1B) free agent to White Sox,
Yamaico Navarro (IF) free agent to Yankees,
Brian Roberts (2B) free agent to Yankees,
Chris Snyder (C) free agent to Nationals,
Tyler Teagarden (C) free agent to Mets,
Wilson Betemit (3B) free agent to Rays
OUTFIELDERS
Nate McLouth (OF) free agent to Nationals,
Michael Morse (OF) free agent to Giants,
Jason Priddie (OF)free agent to Rockies,
Chris Dickerson (OF) free agent to Pirates
STARTING PITCHERS
Jairo Asencio (P) free agent to White Sox,
Scott Feldman (P) free agent to Astros,
Jason Hammel (SP) free agent to Cubs
RELIEF PITCHERS
Jim Johnson (RP) trade to A's,
Francisco Rodriguez (RP) free agent to Brewers
John Rauch (RP) free agent to Royals
Winter Headlines:  
Johnson traded. Balfour walks away from deal. K-Rod goes back to Milwaukee. Who will close?
The Brian Roberts era ends. (Longest tenured Oriole goes to the evil empire)
What to Expect?: 
I try to stay neutral when I write about baseball but as an Orioles fan I am sure that my bias comes through on occassion.  In the interest of being objective I will tell you this: this team could be really bad. It would be difficult to say you should have high hopes this year.  The thing that benefits the Orioles is the fact that the rest of the division is not great.  The Orioles offense is powerful with Wieters, Jones, Davis and Machado.  The rotation (theoretically) is set for the first four spots with Mike Gonzales, Chris Tillman, Bud Norris and Wei Yin Chen. The team is hopeful that Dylan Bundy will blossom into an ace but that is yet to be seen and how much he will contribute this season is questionable.  The question of who will close games also becomes a major issue as well after the debacle of the offseason.  Although this is not a terrible team, if the starting pitching does not come through this will not be a contending team and things could get very ugly very quickly.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
Orioles fans have suffered for a long time. (Trust me on this one). Since the departure of Cal Ripken there have been few bright spots in the lives of Orioles fans.  The 2012 playoff run was amazing but the fall off last year was disappointing. This core group of Orioles players (Jones, Wieters, Markakis and Machado) are excellent players and deserve to join the Orioles list of legends some day.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Orioles Fans Want?:
Although the organization, under the previous leadership of Andy McPhail, did a good job of building this organization, they seem to fail in getting the team the help they need when they need it.  The hall mark of the great Orioles teams was always great pitching.  The pitching staff is now the weak link.  If the Orioles do not get a legitimate leader for the rotation and a solid closer they will likely fall to the bottom of the division.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Manny Machado had an amazing start to his career.  As a late season call up in 2012 he was a big reason for the Orioles playoff appearance.  Last year I told you not to expect too much from him because I feared he would not be able to live up to the glimpses we saw. I was wrong.  He was spectacular all year until he got injured.  Machado is working towards recovery but a recently published article said he may have to learn to run again.  Machado may not have much of an impact on the season if he does not recover.
Expect Great Things From:
Adam Jones is one of the best Centerfielders in the game but playing in Baltimore he sometimes gets overshadowed.  Orioles fans know how good he is and hopefully the rest of the country will soon pick up on it.  Jones has continuously grown as a player and as a clubhouse leader.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Buck Showalter is managing his fourth team.  He started with the Yankees in 1992 and led them to the playoffs in 1995.  He was then fired after the playoffs and the Yankees went on to win four out of five World Series.  Showalter moved on to the Diamodbacks and helped create that organization managing the team for the first three years.  He left at the end of 2000 and the Diamondbacks won the 2001 World Series.  He moved on to Texas and managed four years there.  Showalter appears to have a shelf life of about four years.  He is now starting his fifth year (fourth full year) with the Orioles.  There are rumors that he has become slightly upset with the ownership over what he perceives as their lack of aggressiveness in the free agent market and unwillingness to spend the money that the competition is willing to spend.  Showalter may run out of patience.
Prediction: 4th in AL East








Toronto Blue Jays
Who's New?: 
CATCHER/INFIELDER
Dan Johnson (1B) free agent from Orioles,
Erik Kratz (C) trade from Phillies,
Dionner Navarro (C) free agent from Cubs,
Chris Getz (2B) free agent from Royals,
OUTFIELDER
None
STARTING PITCHERS
None
RELIEF PITCHERS
None
Who Left: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Ramon Hernandez (C) free agent to Royals
Mark DeRosa (2B) retired,
J.P. Arencibia (C) free agent to Rangers,
OUTFIELDERS
Rajai Davis (OF) free agent to Blue Jays,
Ryan Langerhans (OF) unsigned free agent
STARTING PITCHERS
Josh Johnson (SP) free agent to Padres,
Chien Ming Wan (SP) free agent to Reds,
Ramon Ortiz (SP) unsigned free agent
RELIEF PITCHERS
Brad Lincoln (RP) trade to Phillies,
Justin Germano (RP) free agent to Rangers
Darren Oliver (RP) unsigned free agent
What to Expect?:
In last year's preview I told you that it was possible the Jays made too many changes at once to be able to win immediately.  I still feel that this (along with key injuries) was the key reason Toronto struggled.  A year ago the Jays made some major trades for some major names and had high expectations.  Most of those names are back this year and have had a year to work together.  Jays fans should be cautiously optimistic for a playoff run since this division is so close.  Realistically though the team may not have enough to compete.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
This is a likable group of players, some of whom have been in Toronto for a very long time.  Jays fans have seen Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Brett Lawrie grow over the last few years and the Jays organization is clearly putting all of their efforts into putting a competitive team on the field.  They went for broke last season and went broke but they appear to believe in those moves and we will have to see if it works better this year.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Blue Jays Fans Want?:
This was still a last place team last year.  As hard as the ownership has tried to put a winner on the field, last year was a disaster.  Buehrle, Johnson and Dickey were not what was expected and Bautista's injury plagued year was unfortunate.  This division is extremely close but the Jays and Orioles are on the outside looking in.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
R.A. Dickey had a great 2012 season but 2013 was not a good follow up.  You can expect Dickey to make solid contributions but don't expect another Cy Young.
Expect Great Things From:
Jose Bautista has quietly become one of the best hitters in the game.  If Bautista stays healthy expect him to lead this team.  The Jays will fly as high as Bautista's health allows.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Mark Buehrle has been one of the best pitchers of the last fifteen years but his last few years have been below his normal expectations.  Granted, he had last place teams behind him but he is also in his mid 30's.
Prediction: 5th in AL East

*-Please be aware that these predictions are based on the rosters as set in the middle of February.  There are still several key free agents unsigned which could alter these previews.  Also, injuries during spring training could alter my outlook.  Check back next week for the AL Central Preview and continue following to see my final predictions at the start of the season.


TRIVIA QUESTION:
Major League Baseball went to a divisional format to start the 1969 season.  From 1969 through 1993 there were two divisions (East and West) in each league.  From 1994 to the present there have been three divisions (East, Central, West) in each league.  How many times has the World Series Champion come out of the American League East?

Answer to Last Week's Trivia Question:
Congratulations to Hope and partial credit to TJD on last week's trivia question.
When Jimmy Fallon revived the Abbott and Costello characters they were played by Jerry Seinfeld and Billy Crystal.

Saturday, February 23, 2013

2013 American League East Preview

***The Division Preview that follows is not betting advice in any way shape or form.  Please do not bet any money based in any part on these predictions.***

For a a little over a decade this has been considered the best division in baseball.  The Yankees and Red Sox have absolutely dominated the American League East since the strike year of 1994.  With the exception of the Orioles in 1997 and the 2008 Rays, the Yankees or Red Sox won the division every year.  One of the two also finished second in every season since the strike, except 2011 and 2012.

The Yankees and Red Sox are starting to fall back while the Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays have improved to create a more competitive division.  Coming into this season it would not be a surprise to see any of these teams finish first or last.  The Yankees have grown old before our eyes and are trying to find their way without Steinbrenner in charge.  Many have predicted a complete Yankee collapse but don't forget this team won 95 games last year.  The Orioles pulled a magic trick in challenging the Yankees for first last year and return with almost the same team, although it is hard to imagine them winning as many games in comeback fashion or with the patch work pitching rotation they used last year.  The Rays continue to lose premiere players, yet every year Joe Maddon has them in contention.  The Red Sox have talent that most organizations would kill for but the clubhouse chemistry is terrible.  The Blue Jays have made great improvements but did they change too many parts at one time?

As the division appears to be in a state of upheaval with all the cards up in the air it will be a fun six months watching the five teams fight it out and seeing who will land on top.  Here's how I see it playing out:

Toronto Blue Jays

Last Year's Record:
73-89 (4th in AL East)
Who's new?*:
Mark Buehrle (P) trade from Marlins, R.A. Dickey (P) trade from Mets, Jeremy Jeffress (P) contract purchased from Royals, Josh Johnson (P) trade from Miami, Dustin McGowan (P) returning from surgery, Esmil Rogers (P) trade from Indians, Henry Blanco (C) free agent from Diamondbacks, A.J. Jimenez (C) from minor leagues, Josh Thole (C) trade from Mets, Mark DeRosa (IF) free agent from Nationals, Ryan Goins (IF) from minors, Maicer Izturis (2B) free agent from Angels, Jose Reyes (SS) trade from Marlins, Emilio Bonifacio (OF) trade from Marlins, Melky Cabrera (OF) free agent from Giants.
Who left?*:
Henderson Alvarez (P), traded to Marlins, Joel Carreno (P) sent to minor leagues, Chad Beck (P) on expanded spring training roster, Andrew Carpenter (P) free agent to Cubs, David Carpenter (P) traded to Boston Red Sox, Robert Coello (P) free agent to Angels,  Kyle Drabek (P) on extended spring training roster, Sam Dyson (P) traded to Marlins, Jason Frasor (P) free agent to Rangers, Shawn Hill (P) free agent to Tigers, Bobby Korecky (P) sent to minor leagues,  Aaron Laffey (P) free agent to Mets, Brandon Lyon (P) traded to Mets, Scott Richmond (P) unsigned free agent, Carlos Villanueva (P) free agent to Cubs,  Jeff Mathis (C) traded to Marlins, Kelly Johnson (2B) free agent to Rays, Yunel Escobar (SS) traded to Marlins, Omar Vizquel (SS) unsigned free agent, Adeiny Hechevarria (IF) traded to Marlins, Yorvit Torrealba (UT) free agent to Rockies, Mike McCoy (UT) sent to minor leagues, Yan Gomez (UT) traded to Cleveland Indians.
What to expect: 
Expect the best.  Toronto is going all in this year with a complete overhaul.  They have a combination of young and old.  Power and speed.  Award winners and possible future award winners.  They have a deep pitching rotation, strong defense up the middle, speed at the top and bottom of the lineup and power in the middle of the order.  On paper this is the best team in the division.
Why should you root for these guys?: 
There has not been this much excitement over baseball in Toronto since the league had two divisions in each league, the Brewers were in the American League and the Nationals were still the Montreal Expos.  For the first time since before the 1994 strike canceled the World Series the Canadian baseball fan actually has expectations of the playoffs.  This team would like to carry on the tradition of Joe Carter, Roberto Alomar, Devon White and Jimmy Key and it would be fun to see the Jays playing in October. 
Why might this season not turn out like Blue Jays fans want?: 
The game is not played on paper.  Everyone on the roster needs to quickly adjust to the new surroundings and new team mates.  R.A. Dickey had a great 2012 (and the Jays were smart enough to make sure his personal Catcher came along to catch the knuckle ball), but it is hard to expect Dickey to repeat the great numbers of last year because they were so far above his career numbers.  Manager John Gibbons has been a part of the Toronto organization in the past but he will need to quickly make a connection with the remaining players from the John Farrell era.  Bautista and Encarnacion flourished under Farrell.  Will they feel as comfortable under Gibbons?  The majority of the new players came from the Marlins, a team that finished in last place in 2012.  Will they be able to lift the Jays to the top perch?
Don't expect too much from him: 
Josh Johnson has all the potential in the world but has had to struggle with the Marlins poor teams since 2005.  There will be less pressure on him as the fourth starter in Toronto as opposed to the expectations of being a young ace.  Now that there is less pressure and a better team around him Johnson will need to finally define his career:  big time pitcher or unfulfilled potential.
Expect great things from:
Jose Reyes is an exciting, top of the lineup speedster.  He will be a big reason the Blue Jays win, if they do.  His speed gives them a threat they have not had since Rickey Henderson and will lead to Toronto having a well balanced offense.  His ability to steal bases can be a major distraction to pitchers and can lead to Bautista and Encarnacion seeing some extra mistake pitches. 
Time for him to step up:
Rickey Romero has been billed for several years as the future of this team.  He steadily improved from 2009 through 2011 but 2012 was a disappointment and Romero was frustrated by the end of the year, finishing just 9-14.  He has fallen to the fifth starter with competition from J.A. Happ for the fifth starter spot.  Romero will need to make his mark this year.
Is this his last chance?:
Melky Cabrera has had a good career.  He won the World Series with the 2009 Yankees and had a decent 2011 with Kansas City.  He was part of a big trade between the Royals and Giants that sent Jonathan Sanchez to the Royals.  The Giants were looking at Cabrera as an MVP candidate until late August when he was suspended for using a banned substance.  The Blue Jays made some dramatic improvements to the roster, but adding Cabrera will be the one looked at with the biggest skepticism.  Cabrera has become the target of the anti-steroids push and will need to prove that he can perform without the use of PED's.  He will be heavily scrutinized and if he fails he may not get another shot.
Prediction: 
First place in AL East.

New York Yankees

Last Year's Record:
95-67 (1st place).
Defeated Baltimore Orioles 3-2 in ALDS.
Lost to Detroit Tigers 4-0 in ALCS.
Who's new?*:
Manny Banuelos (P) promoted from minors, Dellin Betances (P) promoted from minors, Cesar Cabral (P) promoted from minors, Shawn Kelley (P) trade from Mariners, Brett Marshall (P) promoted from minors, Michael Pineda (P) return from injury (possibly back by June), Jose Ramirez (P) promoted from minors, Francisco Rondon (P) promoted from minors, Nik Turley (P) promoted from minors, Austin Romine (C) promoted from minors, David Adams (2B) promoted from minors, Corban Joseph (2B) promoted from minors, Kevin Youkilis (3B) free agent from White Sox, Zoilo Almonte (OF) promoted from minors, Ramon Flores (OF) promoted from minors, Travis Hafner (DH) free agent from Indians.
Who left?*:
Freddy Garcia (P) free agent to Padres, Rafael Soriano (P) free agent to Nationals, Corey Wade (P) free agent to Cubs, Derek Lowe (P) unsigned free agent, Justin Thomas (P) free agent to Athletics, Ryota Igarashi (P) free agent to Mets, Russell Martin (C) free agent to Pirates, Raul Ibanez (OF/DH) free agent to Mariners, Nick Swisher (OF) free agent to Indians, Eric Chavez (3B/DH) free agent to Diamondbacks, Andruw Jones (OF) free agent to Japan, Casey McGehee (OF) unsigned free agent, Chris Dickerson (OF) free agent to Orioles, Ramiro Pena (IF/DH) free agent to Braves, Darnell McDonald (UT) free agent to Cubs.
What to expect:
Yankee fans shouldn't get their hopes too high.  A playoff birth is possible but they are an aging team with an ownership group still getting their foundation set after the Boss stepped away a few years ago.  If all goes well they could still compete for a division title and even the World Series but it would take a lot going right for that to happen.  Don't believe the talk of a complete collapse but don't expect them to be more than an average team.
Why should you root for these guys?: 
Jeter, Rivera and Pettite are the last links to the last great Yankee dynasty.  This will certainly be Rivera's last year and could very likely be the last for Jeter and Pettite.  For the three pillars of the Yankees greatness, it would be nice to see them go out on top. Ichiro languished in Seattle doing great things for a terrible organization.  He finally got his chance in the playoffs last year but the Yankees came up short.  Ichiro is assuredly a Hall of Famer once he retires, it would be nice to see him inducted while wearing a World Series ring. 
Why might this season not turn out like Yankee fans want?: 
There are a lot of questions coming into this season, starting with A-Rod.  On top of his injury, which will keep him out until at least the All Star Break, there is the not insignificant matter of the Miami based steroid clinic which he had some connection with.    It is not likely, but entirely possible, that he will receive some sort of discipline from the league.  Youkilis is a good player and contributed heavily to the White Sox strong 2012 but he is on the decline and will not give them the numbers that A-Rod  gave them when he was healthy.  C.C. Sabathia denied rumors about shoulder issues at the end of last season but was clearly hurting and it is unclear how many innings Pettite will be able to give them.  Rivera will be  returning from almost an entire year off recuperating from the catastrophic knee injury that would have ended most careers.  Will he be able to step back into the closers role as though nothing happened? This is an aging team with little youth in the pipeline to infuse life into the system.
Don't expect too much from him:
Derek Jeter suffered a severe ankle injury in the playoffs. He is known for playing through pain, and doing it well.  Yet, at his age, coming back from a major injury of this type is not as many seem to expect.  Jeter only got clearance to start running again within the last few weeks and will have to work hard to get his legs back.  His signature play is chasing a ball deep in the hole and throwing while leaping off balance.  How will the ankle hold up when he has to make that play?
Expect great things from: 
Brett Gardner missed most of last year with an injury but is looking healthy and is ready to go.  Gardner has a lot of talent and will be looked on to make up for the lost production of Swisher.  He should be able to contribute better numbers than Swisher did last year and could be an All Star this year.
Time for him to step up:
Joba Chamberlain came onto the scene in 2007 with a lot of expectations and he seemed ready fulfill all expectations.  Since 2009 he has been up and down and missed most of an entire season recovering from a severe ankle injury. He is on the Active Roster, however, not listed on the depth chart.  The Yankees will need him to have a great comeback season if they are going to make a deep run in the playoffs.
Is this his last chance?:
Most of this team is on their last chance to win a World Series.  Jeter, Pettite, Ichiro, Rivera, Hafner and Youkilis have been in this game for a long time and are all on the decline.  Rivera has already said that this will be his last year and the other old men may not be far behind. As these players start to bow out the Yankees have little hope to immediately replace them.
Prediction:
2nd Place in AL East. Second Wild Card.

Tampa Bay Rays

Last Year's Record: 
90-72 (3rd Place in AL East)
Who's new?*: 
Alex Colome (P) promoted from minor leagues, Frank De los Santos (P) promoted from minors, Roberto Hernandez (aka Fausto Carmona) (P) free agent from Indians, Mike Montgomery (P) trade from Royals, Jake Odorizzi (P) trade from Royals, Felipe Romero (P) promoted from minors, Enny Romero (P) promoted from minors, Robinson Chirinos (C) returning from concussion issues, Tim Beckham (SS) promoted from minors, Yunel Escobar (SS) trade from Marlins, Kelly Johnson (2B) free agent from Blue Jays, James Loney (1B) free agent from Red Sox.
Who left?*: 
J.P. Howell (P) free agent to Dodgers, Burke Badenhop (P) traded to Brewers, Wade Davis (P) traded to Royals, James Shields (P) traded to Royals, Carlos Pena (1B) free agent to Astros, Will Rhymes (3B) free agent to Nationals, Elliott Johnson (SS) traded to Royals, Drew Sutton (IF) free agent to Red Sox, Brandon Allen (LF) free agent to Rangers, B.J. Upton (CF) free agent to Braves, Reid Brignac (OF) traded to Rockies, Brooks Conrad (UT) unsigned free agent, Ben Francisco (UT) free agent to Indians, Jeff Keppinger (3B) free agent to White Sox.
What to expect: 
The Rays continue to lose key players, yet they always stay competitive.  Joe Maddon is one of the best managers in the game but rarely gets the attention for the great results he gets out of the talent he has.  It seems that he likes it that way.  They have continued to stay in the playoff hunt year after year despite a low budget, low attendance and low national attention.  Expect the Rays to stay in the playoff chase until late in the season but it would be unlikely they will actually get a wild card spot.
Why should you root for these guys?:
If you enjoy rooting for underdogs, this is your team.  Small budget, constant turn over of the roster and very little support from the local fans.  Evan Longoria and David Price are two truly great players who do not always get the recognition they deserve. 
Why might this season not turn out like Rays fans want?: 
Joe Maddon has been able to work miracles over the last few years but even he may be running out of tricks.  The team lost four more major pieces this off season (B.J. Upton, Wade Davis, James Shields and Carlos Pena).  Yunel Escobar was brought on board but there are rumors that his clubhouse presence is less than positive, which is something Maddon won't put up with.  They gave up James Shields and Wade Davis to the Royals and got Wil Meyers, Kansas City's top prospect, in return but it is unclear what he will contribute this year.
Don't expect too much from him: 
Yunel Escobar has a lot of talent but for some reason he doesn't seem to be able to stick with a team.  He was traded from the Blue Jays to the Marlins to the Rays within the span of a week and there were rumors that he was not the most likable teammate.  (No former team mates were specifically linked to the rumors.) 
Expect great things from: 
Evan Longoria and David Price are two great young talents with great careers ahead of them. In their short careers, both starting in 2008, they have been able to do what was thought impossible in 2007: they turned Tampa Bay into a consistent playoff contender.  With a healthy Longoria the Rays may again have some surprises up their sleeves.
Time for him to step up:
James Loney played a big part in the Dodgers 2008 and 2009 playoff teams and looked like he would be their first baseman for the next decade at least.  In fact, three years ago, as Joe Torre stepped away, Dodgers fans likely would have expected Matt Kemp to be dealt away before Loney. For whatever reason Loney's numbers started to slip and his consistency never recovered.  Dodgers fans continued to hope for Loney to get back on track but when Adrian Gonzalez became available Loney became expendable.  A new setting may be just what he needs to restart his career.  He has All Star potential. If he is able to fulfill that potential you can look for the Rays to challenge for a playoff spot.  
Is this his last chance?:
Roberto Hernandez (known as Fausto Carmona until last year), had some great years with the Indians.  When Cleveland came within one win of the World Series of 2007, Carmona was a 19 game winner.  His numbers have fallen drastically since then and the Indians finally cut ties. Hernandez is currently listed  as the sixth starter in a five man rotation.  He will need to fight to make the team.
Prediction:
3rd in AL East

Boston Red Sox


Last Year's Record: 
69-93 (5th in AL East)
Who's new?*: 
Drake Britton (P) promoted from minor leagues, Ruby de la Rosa (P) trade from Dodgers, Ryan Dempster (P) free agent from Rangers, Joel Hanrahan (P) trade from Pirates, John Lackey (P) return from injury, Koji Uehara (P) free agent from Rangers, Allen Webster (P) promoted from minors, Alex Wilson (P) promoted from minors, Dan Butler (C) promoted from minors, David Ross (C) free agent from Braves, Christian Vazquez (C) promoted from minor leagues, Stephen Drew (SS) free agent from Athletics, Brock Holt (2B) trade from Pirates, Mike Napoli (IF/C/DH) free agent from Rangers, Jonny Gomes (OF) free agent from Athletics, Alex Hassan (OF) promoted from minors, Shane Victorino (OF) free agent from Dodgers.
Who left?*: 
Aaron Cook (P) free agent to Phillies, Scott Atchison (P) free agent to Mets, Zach Stewart (P) traded to Pirates, Rich Hill (P) free agent to Indians, Vicente Padilla (P) unsigned free agent, Daisuke Matsuzaka (P) free agent to Indians, Guillermo Quiroz(C) free agent to Giants, James Loney (1B) free agent to Rays, Danny Valencia (3B) contract sold to Orioles, Mike Aviles (UT) traded to Blue Jays, Ivan DeJesus (SS) traded to Pirates, Cody Ross (RF) free agent to Diamondbacks, Che-Hsuan Lin (CF) claimed off waivers by Astros, Scott Podsednik (UT) unsigned free agent, Nate Spears (OF) free agent to Indians, Jason Repko (OF) unsigned free agent,
What to expect: 
This is a rebuilding year.  Last year was a miserable, devastating follow up to a miserable, devastating 2011.  From the very first week of Spring Training it was clear this was not a good environment and several players asked the team to get rid of Valentine. Valentine felt that several coaches on his own team were sabotaging him and the ownership was nowhere to be found. Mike Aviles and Dustin Pedroia were the only two bright spots and Aviles was shipped off this winter.  Boston made some nice moves this offseason in signing Jonny Gomes, Shane Victorino, Steven Drew and trading for Joel Hanrahan.  Unfortunately, the environment in Boston has become so bad that it may take a few years to get things back in order. If John Farrell thought he would be able to ease into the regular season he was wrong.  He has already had a confrontation with Pitcher Jose Aceves who was loafing during batting practice.  It could be business as usual in Boston.
Why should you root for these guys?:
The Boston faithful suffered through a miserable 2012 season.  They had high hopes going into the season, believing the collapse at the end of 2011 was a fluke.  They stuck with their team and all they got was one of the worst Red Sox seasons since Grady Little was managing.  It is nice to see the faith of fans rewarded once in awhile.
Why might this season not turn out like Red Sox fans want?:
2013 has already started the way 2012 ended: problems in spring training. John Farrell is a great baseball mind but he had a ton of talent in Toronto and was not able to pass the Rays or even the Orioles in the standings.  How will he lead the Red Sox with less talent and more strife past four other teams?  The pitching staff, which should have been the team's strength the last few years has been disappointing and is even weaker now than it has been for nearly a decade.  Lester and Bucholz will need to finally fulfill their promise.
Don't expect too much from him: 
Mike Napoli was considered a good Catcher with potential All Star abilities until he destroyed Cardinal pitching in the 2011 World Series in front of a national audience.  From that point on the expectations went way up.  His 2012 season was closer to his career totals.  His average dropped from .320 to .227, his strikeouts went up from 85 to 125 his doubles dropped from 25 to 9 and his Home Runs dropped from 30 to 24.  Napoli signed with the Red Sox this offseason, although the process was held up considerably when Napoli failed a physical. Napoli will probably improve on the 2012 season but don't expect the performance he showed in the  2011 World Series.
Expect great things from:
Shane Victorino is one of those players that is loved by the fans who get to see him everyday but hated by everyone else.  He is a motor guy who gives his all every time he steps on the field.   With Victorino at the top of the lineup expect him to score a lot of runs and create opportunities for Pedroia, Ortiz and Napoli.
Time for him to step up:
Clay Bucholz showed flashes of brilliance when he first came to the majors but injuries have slowed his progress.  He has been up and down to the minors every year except 2011 and has only had one season (17-7 in 2010) where he has come close to being the pitcher everone expected.  The Sox will need Bucholz to be what everyone believes he can be if they have a chance to compete for a wild card spot.
Is this his last chance?:
David Ortiz is one of the few remaining links to the 2004 and 2007 World Series Championship teams.  He has been a consistent performer and fan favorite for a decade in Beantown.  Ortiz quietly had a very strong year in 2012 (.318, 23 HR) but he is 37 and injuries have started to take their toll.  For the last few years there have been whispers that he may be retiring soon.  When he does the Boston fans will lose a great player and a great presence in the Boston community.
Prediction:
4th Place in AL East


 Baltimore Orioles

Last Year's Record: 
93-69 (2nd in AL East). 
Texas Rangers in Wild Card Game. 
Lost to New York Yankees 3-2 in ALDS.
Who's new?*:
Mike Belfiore (P) promoted from minors, Zach Clark (P) promoted from minor leagues, Todd Redmond (P) off waivers from Reds, Russ Canzler (3B) off waivers from Yankees, Yamaico Navarro () trade from Pirates, Jonathan Schoop (3B) promoted from minor leagues, Danny Valencia (3B) trade from Red Sox.
Who left?*:
Joe Saunders (P) free agent to Seattle Mariners, Kevin Gregg (P) free agent to Dodgers, Dana Eveland (P) unsigned free agent, Randy Wolf (P) unsigned free agent, Zach Phillips (P) unsigned free agent, J.C. Romero (P), Mark Reynolds (1B/3B) free agent to Indians, Robert Andino (2b) trade to Mariners, Omar Quintanilla (UT) free agent to Mets, Endy Chavez (OF) free agent to Royals, Steven Tolleson (UT) free agent to the White Sox, Bill Hall (UT) free agent to Angels
What to expect:
Going into this season with the same expectations as last spring training is probably the best mindset for the Orioles fan.  Expect them to compete hard but don't look for a playoff spot.  They are still in a tough division.  The Yankees are still the Yankees and the Blue Jays are now much more talented with something to prove. The Orioles are still the same team, with some minor improvements, and that may or may not translate into the Orioles magic of last season.  If any manager can pull another rabbit out of the hat it will be Buck Showalter.
Why should you root for these guys?:
There are some players on this team that may end up in the Orioles Hall of Fame someday.  Matt Wieters, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis are well on their way to being Orioles legends on the same level as Boog Powell, Dave McNally, Mike Cuellar, Brady Anderson and Ben McDonald.  The Orioles have been rebuilding for the better part of 15 years and the process finally gave fruit in 2012.  We will have to wait and see how much of that was smoke and mirrors and how much will be a consistent formula.
Why might this season not turn out like Orioles fans want?:
Last year was a magical year full of exciting extra inning, one run games and players no one expected to contribute stepping up to help the Orioles win.  For the Orioles to win last year they used 12 different starting pitchers.  Of those 12 only 6 won above 50% of their decisions and only one (Wei-Yin Chen) hit double digits in wins.  Their top three starters (Chen, Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzales) certainly are a reason for Bird Land fans to be excited but it will take a lot of magic to repeat last year.
Don't expect too much from him: 
Manny Machado was thrown into the heat of a pennant race and told that he was no longer a Shortstop, he was now a third baseman before he had time to think about it.  He gave the Orioles exactly what they needed in the 51 games he played.  The downside is that he has now raised the expectations of what he can do based on a small sample size.  He should be a good third baseman and may be the best the O's have had at the hot corner since Cal Ripken's last few years, however, don't expect him to challenge for a batting title or Home Run crown.  Expect him to be an above average every day third baseman who will still be learning the position.
Expect great things from:
Adam Jones and Matt Wieters both had tremendous years in 2012.  Wieters proved he is the best catcher in the American League and Jones was in the MVP discussion until Cabrera and Trout took over the season.  Regardless of what the Orioles do, O's fans should enjoy the great play of two potentially all time great Orioles.
Time for him to step up:
Ryan Flaherty played a total of 77 games last season (only 28 at second base), trading time with Robert Andino and Brian Roberts.  Andino was traded to Seattle in the offseason and Roberts has health issues that have severely limited his playing time over the last five years. Flaherty will now be the everyday second baseman with high expectations.
Is this his last chance?: 
Chris Davis is in a very similar situation to Ryan Flaherty.  Davis has a strong bat that Showalter wants in the lineup everyday but Showalter struggled to find a place for him to play.  He saw time at DH, Firstbase, Rightfield and Leftfield with no permanent spot.  Showalter allowed Mark Reynolds, who had a great September in the Orioles playoff push, to leave the team by free agency.  The decision drew a lot of criticism but Showalter was sure that Davis belonged at Firstbase.  Davis will need to prove he can play everyday or the Orioles may be looking for a replacement.
Prediction: 5th Place in AL East

*-All roster changes are based on active rosters at the end of 2012 and active rosters as of the week of 2/18.  Teams may have non-roster invitees in camp who are not listed in the "Who's New?" category.

Sunday, September 23, 2012

"...if you were the last batter in a perfect game or no hitter?"

He threw the last pitch of the 8th inning. He let it go, followed through and felt the sweat fly off his hand as the ball twisted towards the plate.  Watching Joe Collins, the big Yankee first baseman, swing through the pitch he heard the "tick" of the foul tip and the "smack" of the ball hitting Campanella's glove. Sal Maglie walked off the mound toward the visitors dugout.  He had done his job and it was a hell of a job.  8 innings pitched, 5 hits allowed, only 2 runs allowed, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts.  Giving up only 2 runs to the powerful Yankees with the reigning World Champs backing him should have been enough to win, now he trusted they would do their job.

Maglie may have reflected on the oddity of being in this position. It had been an odd season, truly surreal. It started in Spring Training when he was told he wasn't good enough to be a starter for the Cleveland Indians. He did his best to convince them he was good but try being sharp when you only  pitch once a month.  He begged Hank Greenberg, the General Manager, to play him, trade him release him, anything.  Just give him a chance.  So he got his chance.  An exhibition  game against a minor league team.  Fortunately for Maglie he pitched great and fortunately for Greenberg, the Dodgers saw the performance.  Looking for one last pitcher to help shore up the staff, the Dodgers took a chance and bought Maglie's contract.  There was only one problem:  Maglie hated the Dodgers with a passion and the feeling was mutual.  Maglie pitching for the Dodgers would be today's equivalent of Jeter wearing red socks, a grey jersey and Boston written on the chest or Chipper Jones pulling on a red pin striped Phillies' uniform. 

Photo Courtesy of:  Bleacher Report

Once, while pitching for the Giants, Maglie threw a fastball at Carl "the Reading Rifle" Furillo's head.  The next thing you know Furillo's in the Giant's dugout with Leo Durocher in a headlock.  Durocher's turning purple, Giants players are telling Furillo to stop and the umpire's begging Furillo to kill Durocher.  Total chaos and it all happened on the "Game of the Week" for the world to see. The Dodgers players nicknamed Maglie "the Barber" because he would pitch so close to your chin that he would give you a trim.  The professional "do your job" culture that dominated the Brooklyn Dodgers of that era kept Furillo from killing Maglie when he walked into the Dodgers clubhouse and the 13-5 record he posted after arriving didn't hurt.

He wouldn't have questioned that his day was done as he left the mound.  That's the thing about being a pitcher late in the game.  If your spot in the order is due to bat the announcers refuse to even acknowledge you as an option.  They'll say "the pitcher's spot is due up third" and you know late in the game your manager won't allow a .129 hitter to come to the plate when someone who is actually allowed to take batting practice can take your place.  He had done his job and now his teammates had to do theirs.

This series was a crossroads moment in baseball history.  It put the final stamp of historical interpretation on the era of to franchises.  Since 1941 these two teams had met repeatedly in the World Series. In 1941, 1947, 1949, 1952 and 1953 it was always close, usually went six or seven games and provided some of the greatest World Series memories in history.  This series would stamp the Dodgers as "lucky" to have finally gotten the 1955 win or stamp them as the new dynasty, defeating the aging, beaten, crumbling Yankees.

The top of the 9th started with Furillo, a consistent .300 hitter, flying out to right field.  Campanella grounded to second for the second out and then came "the pitcher's spot".  There was really no thought to the process.  As unpredictable and random as this game can be this was inevitable and well planned out.  There was one choice that made sense.  The Dodgers needed a pinch hitter.  A right handed batter was needed to face Don Larsen, the left handed pitcher.  Preferably someone who had faced the pitcher before and knew his pitch pattern and his motion.

By about the 5th or 6th inning Dale Mitchell likely would have been thinking his name would come up if things kept going the way they were going.  Sitting on the bench leaves a lot of time for thinking and observing and "what if...?" 

The "what if" was here.  Top of the ninth, 2 out the team is down 2-0, Game 5 of the 1956 World Series and, oh yeah, Don Larsen is pitching a perfect game.  Mitchell likely thought "Don Larsen, of all people, is pitching a perfect game.  For God's sake, they call him 'Googly Bird', and somehow not a single Brooklyn Dodger had reached base.  If Pee Wee Reese, Jackie Robinson, Duke Snider, Carl Furillo, Gil Hodges and Roy Campanella can't get a hit off this guy, what do they expect me to do?"

Mitchell was a professional.  He was in his tenth major league season and had told the Indians at the beginning of this year that it would be his last.  It had been a great career:  he had been on the Indians World Series champs team of 1948, had made great contributions to the 1954 juggernaut Indians that were shocked by the Giants, had made two All Star Games and had received MVP votes in 4 different seasons.  Mitchell was a professional, a good one, and he knew what was coming.  Go up there and start a rally.
Photo Courtesy of: Bleacher Report



Dale Mitchell struck out looking...and argued to the day he died that the pitch was high and outside.  Replays are difficult to tell but he was probably right.

This morning my friend asked me "if you were the last batter and the opposing pitcher is pitching a no hitter or perfect game, would you give up and let the guy have a no hitter, would you try to get a hit, or would you lay down a bunt and try to sneak a hit in there?"  Basically, "If you were Dale Mitchell...?"

A no hitter or perfect game is a rare and amazing thing, but only if the pitcher earns it.  Dale Mitchell may have struck out looking to give Don Larsen a perfect game but he didn't "GIVE" it to him.  Mitchell's at bat was a 5 pitch struggle that ended on a questionable strike call.  He didn't think "this guy is going to pitch a perfect game in the World Series" he thought "if I find a way to get on base I have the most powerful lineup in the world behind me and this guy will have forgotten about the 26 guys in a row he retired."  I am also fairly certain that Sal Maglie wasn't thinking "I hope this guy gets it."  He was thinking "if we can just get one guy on base we are still in this thing."

I'm not a pitcher so I can't say for sure but I doubt any pitcher would want to be given the last three outs of a no hitter.  They would want to earn that achievement.  In 1988 Dave Stieb, a pitcher for the Blue Jays took a no hitter into the 9th inning and with 2 strikes on the last batter gave up a hit.  Devastating.  It gets worse.  One start later the same thing happened.  It gets worse.  In 1989 it happened again.  Finally in September of 1990 Stieb got a no hitter.  Imagine how great it must have felt for him to finally get that accomplishment and have earned it as opposed to having someone give it to him.

Photo Courtesy of: Sports Net

As a batter your job is to go from a batter to a base runner and help your team win the game.  If you are lucky you will get four or five chances a game to make that happen and you can't give those chances up.  Pitchers are creatures of habit and rely on a rhythm to be effective.  If a pitcher is getting into a rhythm your best bet is to step out of the box as he is getting set to throw, take as much time as you can in between pitches and bunt.  Make him come off the mound and force him to get out of rhythm.  If you want a chance to win your best bet is to get him out of his rhythm early, by the third or fourth inning.  If you're being no hit early in the game lay down a bunt.  Rafael Furcal of the Cardinals is the best at this right now.

I can't tell you how many times I've watched a game where a pitcher is rolling along through the lineup and hitter after hitter is up there hacking at the first pitch popping up or grounding out.  No one steps out of the box and makes the pitcher think a little.  No one takes a pitch and makes the pitcher work to get you out.  These situations in the 4th, 5th or 6th innings are where the pitchers really earn the no hitter or perfect game.

"If I were the last batter in a no hit game..." I'd fight to get a solid hit but I'd be screwed because my team didn't get the pitcher out of rhythm earlier in the game.