American League Central Preview

***The Division Preview that follows is not betting advice in any way shape or form.  Please do not bet any money based in any part on these predictions.***

Since the American League Central took on the current format (in 1998 the Brewers moved to the National League and the Tigers moved into the Central) every team has won the division with the exception of the Royals.  The Indians were the early dominant team winning the division in 1998, 1999, 2001 and 2007.  The White Sox took the division in 2000, 2005 and 2008.  The Twins have quietly been the dominant team in the central over the last ten years, winning the division in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2010.  The Tigers won it in 2011 and 2012.  The Royals have never won the central division. 

Compared to other divisions the central has been relatively competitive with nearly every team spending time at the top, middle and bottom.  Although the Twins finished first six times, they have also finished last several times.  Detroit has finished first two years in a row and three times over all, however, they have also suffered through one of the worst seasons in history during their time in the Central.

Detroit is the clear leader of the division this year and the Twins are clearly at the bottom.  The middle of the division should be a fun battle.  Here's how I see it playing out:
Detroit Tigers

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Last Year's Record:
 88-74.  First Place in AL Central.
Defeated Athletics 3-2 in ALDS
Defeated Yankees 4-0 in ALCS
Lost to Giants 4-0 in World Series
Who's new?*:
Kyle Lobstein (P) promoted from minors, Melvin Mercedes (P) promoted from minors, Bruce Rondon (P) promoted from minors, Ramon Cabrera (C) trade from Pirates, Brayan Pena (C) free agent from Royals, Jeff Kobernus (2B) promoted from minors, Dixon Machado (SS) promoted from minors, Torii Hunter (OF) free agent from Angels, Victor Martinez (C/DH) return from injury.
Who left?*:
Daniel Schlereth (P) free agent to Orioles , Jose Valverde (P) unsigned free agent, Adam Wilk (P) unsigned free agent, Gerald Laird (C) free agent to Braves,  Ryan Rayburn (OF) free agent to Indians, Delmon Young (OF/DH) free agent to Phillies.
What to expect:  
The Tigers are reigning AL Champs who appear to have addressed nearly all of their major needs.  They had very few problem positions last year once they traded for Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez from Miami at the trading deadline.  With the strong performance of Max Scherzer in the playoffs the Tigers rotation seems to be the best in the AL and by adding Torii Hunter in Centerfield they have a nearly all around perfect team. 
Why should you root for these guys?: 
The Tigers are a team strong in tradition.  From Ty Cobb to Hank Greenberg to Charlie Gehringer to Al Kaline to Mark Fidrych to Alan Trammell to Justin Verlander, the Tigers have given the history of the game some of the greatest moments, teams and characters of all time.  Tigers fans suffered through some absolutely terrible seasons (They finished with a winning percentage of less than .350 three times between 1995 and 2003, including one of the worst seasons by any team in history in 2003).  It has been almost 30 years since the Tigers won a World Series and after being swept out of the World Series twice in the last ten years it would be nice to see the Tigers fan base experience the joy of a World Series win.
Why might this season not turn out like Tigers fans want?: 
The big problem for the Tigers in the playoffs last year was the collapse of Jose Valverde.  It was nice to see Jim Leyland's loyalty to his player but heartbreaking to see Valverde fall apart each time he went out on the mound.  The Tigers have addressed nearly all of their issues in the offseason but the one big question that remains is who will emerge as the everyday closer?  Currently the depth chart shows rookie pitcher Bruce Rondon in the closer role but how long can Leyland stick with a rookie if he starts to falter?
Don't expect too much from him: 
Phil Coke took over for Jose Valverde when Valverde fell apart in the playoffs and did a great job.  He doesn't seem to be a long term closer solution but he may be forced back into the role if the rookie Rondon falters.  Coke is one of the best middle relievers in the game and is irreplaceable for the Tigers but don't expect him to challenge for the league lead in saves.
Expect great things from:
Prince Fielder has had a full year to adjust to the American League pitching and umpires.  He will be hitting behind Cabrera and ahead of Victor Martinez.  If Austin Jackson lives up to his potential, Torii Hunter performs like he did in the second half last year and Miguel Cabrera has even half the year he had last year Fielder will have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs.  Fielder had a strong year last year but expect this year to be one of his best yet.
Time for him to step up:
Austin Jackson has All Star potential and a lot is expected from him.  He had a great regular season last year, hitting .300, scoring 103 runs, and hitting 16 home runs.  He hit .353 in the ALCS but hit only .231 in the World Series.  With Torii Hunter hitting second Jackson should have a great hit and run partner and should be able to take advantage of his speed a little bit more.  Jackson has been a strong contributor the last few years.  This year he will have to become the super star the Tigers thought he would be when they traded Curtis Granderson to get him.
Is this his last chance?:
Torii Hunter is entering his 17th season.  During that time he has earned his reputation as one of the classiest, nicest, most likable, well respected players in the league.  Aside from that he has a reputation for being one of the best defensive outfielders in the game, one of the best team players and one of the most talented all around players.  Surprisingly he has only been an All Star four times in his career, yet he has won 9 Gold Glove awards,  received MVP votes in four different seasons (probably should have had more votes) and even won a Silver Slugger award.  He has done nearly everything that could be expected of a great player with the exception of getting a World Series ring.  Hunter should be a great influence in the Tigers clubhouse and if they win no one will deserve it more than Torii Hunter. 
Prediction: 
First place in AL Central.

Kansas City Royals

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Last Year's Record:
72-90. 3rd in AL Central
Who's new?*:
Noel Arguellas (P) promoted from minors, Wade Davis (P) trade from Rays, Chris Dwyer (P) promoted from minors, J.C.Gutierrez (P) free agent from Diamondbacks, Donnie Joseph (P) promoted from minors, John Lamb (P) promoted from minors, Guillermo Moscoso (P) waiver claim from Rockies, Ervin Santana (P) free agent from Angels, James Shields (P) trade from Rays,George Kottaras (C) waiver claim from Athletics,  Brett Hayes (C) free agent from Marlins, Elliot Johnson (SS) trade from Rays,
Who left?*:
Roman Colon (P) unsigned free agent, Tommy Hottovy (P) trade to Rangers, Jeremy Jeffress (P) contract sold to Blue Jays, Mitch Maier (P) free agent to Red Sox, Vin Mazzaro (P) trade to Pirates, Jake Odorizi (P) trade to Rays, Felipe Paulino (P), Brayan Pena (C) free agent to Tigers, Clint Robinson (OF) trade to Pirates, Jason Bourgeouis (OF) free agent to Rays.
What to expect:
Hopes are high this year in Kansas City and the Royals will need to come through.  For the first time since George Brett retired the Royals have legitimate playoff hopes and for the first time since 1990 the Royals have what can be considered a strong team.  Expect the Royals to compete for a playoff spot but they will need a lot of things to go right to actually reach their goal.
Why should you root for these guys?:
It has been far too long since the Royals actually reigned.  Starting in the late 1970's and lasting through the late 1980's the Royals were consistently in contention and then, all of a sudden, they weren't.  Since the strike year of 1994 the Royals have had a winning record once (in 2003 they were two games above .500) and 2012 marked only the 4th time since the strike they finished above fourth.  The Royals have slowly started to build a strong young team, although injuries and under achievement derailed what they hoped would be a winning 2012 season.  It is about time the Royals are crowned something other than losers.
Why might this season not turn out like Royals fans want?: 
The offense this year returns an almost identical lineup.  The lineup is exploding with potential with players like Sal Perez, Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas, Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer. Unfortunately, they all struggled at different times last year and were never able to coordinate their attack.  The rebuilt pitching staff is very much the same situation.  Ervin Santana has shown flashes of greatness in his career but they are usually followed by long stretches of mediocrity.  Luke Hochevar was expected to be the next ace of the staff but had a tough season in 2012.  If the potential can be realized simultaneously the Royals can likely challenge for a playoff spot.  It will be tough to overcome the culture of losing that has pervaded this franchise for the last 20 years but they have the talent to do it.
Don't expect too much from him: 
James Shields is a great pitcher and was a great number two starter following David Price in Tampa Bay even earning the name "big game James".  Shields was a big leader in Tampa Bay and his leadership will be missed there.  He has steadily improved in his career even winning 16 games in 2011.  Royals fans should expect him to be the clear ace of the staff, however, don't expect him to win the Cy Young award or sniff 20 wins.  Expect him to be a leader in the clubhouse and help bring the fighting attitude that helped Tampa Bay turn from a bottom dweller to a consistent contender.
Expect great things from:
Billy Butler continues to improve every year and seemingly has no limit to the heights he could reach.  He was deservedly the All Star representative for the Royals in 2012 as Kansas City hosted the midsummer classic.  He reached career highs in Home Runs and RBI and hit above .300 for the third time in his short career.  Butler does not get the national attention he deserves but if he continues to improve the Royals should stay in the fight late into the summer.
Time for him to step up:
Eric Hosmer finished third in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2011 but fell off dramatically last season.  He saw declines in every traditionally major offensive category including a fall in the batting average from .293 to .232.  Another player with seemingly limitless potential.  He will need to play more like his rookie years if the Royals are to improve as expected.
Is this his last chance?
Ervin Santana was expected to be the second half of the Angels' great young one-two punch with Jared Weaver.  Weaver has become one of the top pitchers in the game.  Santana turned into a frustration to Angels fans as one day he appeared capable of no hitting the Yankees while in his next start he would be knocked around by a  last place team.  Santana will need to prove that he can be consistent if he is going to continue as a starter in the league.
Prediction: 
2nd place in AL Central.  First Wild Card.


Cleveland Indians

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Last Year's Record:
68-94. 4th place in AL Central
Who's new?*:
Matt Albers (P) free agent from Red Sox, Trevor Bauer (P) trade from Diamondbacks, Carlos Carrasco (P) promoted from minor leagues, Trey Haley (P) promoted from minor leagues, T.J. House (P) promoted from minors, Chen-Chang Lee (P) promoted from minors, Brett Myers (P) free agent from White Sox, Danny Salazar (P) promoted from minors,  Bryan Shaw (P) trade from Diamondbacks, Blake Wood (P) waiver claim from Royals, Mike Aviles (UT) from Blue Jays, Yan Gomes (3B) promoted from minors, Mike McDade (1B) waiver claim from Blue Jays, Mike McGuiness (1B) promoted from minors, Mark Reynolds (1B) free agent from Orioles, Nick Swisher (OF) free agent from Yankees, Michael Bourn (OF) free agent from Braves, Tim Fedroff (OF) promoted from minors, Drew Stubbs (OF) trade from Reds
Who left?*:
Jeanmar Gomez (P) trade to Pirates, Tony Sipp (P) trade to Diamondbacks, Esmil Rogers (P) trade to Blue Jays, Chris Seddon (P) unsigned free agent, Jairo Ascencio (P) unsigned free agent, Roberto Hernandez (AKA Fausto Carmona) (P) free agent to Rays, Dan Wheeler (P) free agent to Royals, Rafael Perez (P) free agent to Twins, Scott Maine (P) claimed off waivers by Blue Jays, Luke Carlin (C) free agent to Angels, Casey Kotchman (1B) free agent to Marlins, Jack Hanahan (3B) free agent to Reds, Shelley Duncan (OF) free agent to Rays, Shin Soo Choo (OF) trade to Reds, Travis Hafner (DH) free agent to Yankees, Jason Donald (UT) trade to Reds, Brent Lillibridge (IF) free agent to Cubs, Aaron Cunningham (LF) free agent to Rangers, Russ Canzler (UT) waiver claim to Orioles, Vinny Rottino (UT) unsigned free agent, Thomas Neal (OF) free agent to Yankees.
What to expect: 
The Indians are improved.  They have a strong core of players with Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera and Justin Masterson.  They added some strong experienced players from playoff teams in Drew Stubbs, Nick Swisher, Mark Reynolds, Michael Bourn and Brett Myers.  Tony Francona is starting to build a strong team but it will still be a few years until they are ready.  This year will be a way for the young players to learn how to win consistently and create a tradition of winning in the organization.
Why should you root for these guys?: 
Cleveland sports fans have had little to cheer for in the last 10 years.  The Browns, Cavaliers and the Indians have all been poor for most of that time.  The few times any Cleveland sport team did show some life they teased the fans by getting frustratingly close before collapsing.  The Indians have not won a World Series since 1948 and have only reached the World Series three times (1954, 1995 and 1997) since then.  Indians fans have suffered long enough. 
Why might this season not turn out like Indians fans want?: 
Justin Masterson should be a strong young ace for the staff. Past Masterson there are plenty of questions surrounding the rotation.  Ubaldo Jimenez was on his way to one of the great pitching seasons in history in the first half of 2010 but somehow couldn't win a game in the second half and has not been quite the same since.  The last few years Cleveland has started fast but faded in mid-season.  They will need a season or two to allow Francona to instill the winning attitude he brought to Philadelphia and Boston.
Don't expect too much from him: 
Nick Swisher has had a strong career and contributed greatly to the Yankees teams of the last four years but his contributions came as a role player while Jeter, Rodriguez, Cano and Texeira were the stars.  Swisher will likely give the Tribe 25-30 Home Runs, score 85-90 Runs and drive in about 85-90.  He will certainly be looked at as a leader but won't emerge into an MVP candidate.
Expect great things from:
Justin Masterson has won in the double digits in games in both of the last two years.  He has All Star potential and is expected to be an ace for years to come.  With a decent team behind him, expect his development to to continue and his numbers to improve greatly.
Time for him to step up:
Drew Stubbs played Centerfield for the Reds for the last few years.  2010 showed that he could be a 30/30 candidate but his numbers have not been as impressive since.  His strikeouts are high (204 in 2011) and his walks are low (42 in 2012) for a leadoff hitter.  If he is able to get on base and create havoc as Dusty Baker expected him to do for the Reds, the Indians may be contenders for a wild card.
Is this his last chance?:
Brett Myers is a strong veteran talent and has been a positive influence everywhere he has played in his career.  He was willing to move back and forth from the starting rotation to the bullpen and back again and has been a strong performer in every opportunity.  Injuries have slowed him down but a reunion with Terry Francona (Francona managed him in Philadelphia) may be what he needs to restart his career.
Prediction:  3rd in AL Central

Chicago White Sox

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Last Year's Record:
85-77. 2nd Place in AL Central
Who's new?*:
Simon Castro (P) promoted from minors, Charles Leesman (P) promoted from minors, Matt Lindstrom (P) free agent from Orioles, Nestor Molina (P) promoted from minors, Andre Rienzo (P) promoted from minors, Santos Rodriguez (P) promoted from minors, Josh Phegley (C) promoted from minors, Lars Anderson (1B) waiver claim from Diamondbacks, Angel Sanchez (SS) Rule 5 Draft Pick from Astros, Jared Mitchell (OF) promoted from minors, Blake Tekotte (OF) trade from Padres
Who left?*:
Philip Humber (P) waiver claim by Astros, Francisco Liriano (P) free agent to Pirates, Brett Myers (P) free agent to Indians, A.J. Pierzynski (C) free agent to Rangers, Kevin Youkilis (3B) free agent to Yankees, Orlando Hudson (IF) unsigned free agent, Jose Lopez (IF) free agent to Japan, Dan Johnson (OF) free agent to Yankees, Ray Olmedo (IF) free agent to Twins.
What to expect: 
The White Sox were expected to finish last in the Central in 2012 but as the season reached the last few weeks of the regular season, the Pale Hose seemed to have the division wrapped up.  Then the Tigers clawed their way back and tore holes in the Sox.  In the offseason they lost some great players in Pierzynski and Youkilis and failed to replace them.  Pierzynski was the biggest loss and his handling of the pitching staff will be missed.
Why should you root for these guys?: 
Chicago fans have had so little to cheer for over the last 100 years.  The White Sox and Cubs have played a combined 192 seasons since the White Sox won the 1917 World Series.  Since then (the White Sox previous World Series victory) the city of Chicago has won only a single World Series (2005 World Series).  This White Sox team was in position to win the division even into the last two weeks of the season.  There were few people who believed they would finish above last place in 2012 but they were a legitimate contender.  With likable long time players like Paul Konerko, Alexei Ramirez and Adam Dunn as well as their young ace Chris Sale, it would be nice to see this team finish what they started last year.
Why might this season not turn out like White Sox fans want?: 
The White Sox were nearly division champs based on the high level of play they got from Pierzynski, Dunn and Chris Sale.  Pierzynski is gone and it will be tough for Sale and Dunn to reproduce the high numbers they achieved and will likely have lesser (though still good) numbers.  On top of that Kansas City, Detroit and Cleveland have done a lot to address their needs.  It may be time for the White Sox to look at rebuilding.
Don't expect too much from him:
Adam Dunn had a great season as comeback player of the year but it would be hard for him to duplicate the numbers he created last year.  With fewer strong bats in the lineup he will likely see fewer pitches to hit and will have to take advantage of the few good ones he does see.
Expect great things from:
Paul Konerko has been a big star for the White Sox for a long time now.  He is entering his 15th season in Chicago and we can only hope that White Sox fans appreciate what they have.  Konerko is the clear leader on the White Sox's  first sustained run of playoff contending teams since the Black Sox scandal in 1919.  Konerko's numbers were down slightly in 2012 but he was still an All Star and most players would gladly take his "off year".  Expect Konerko to bounce back strong and continue to provide memories for the White Sox fans.
Time for him to step up:
Tyler Flowers has some big Sox to fill.  For the last 8 years A.J. Pierzynski has been the fighting spirit and the lightning rod of the White Sox.  When the team was falling into a funk you could bet that A.J. would do something to get the team's attention.  He was a key player in the team's 2005 World Series victory and it is hard to overestimate how much his attitude and drive helped this team overachieve last year.  Tyler Flowers has played a total of 108 games over the last four seasons as Pierzynski' backup and has hit only .205 with just 12 Home Runs in that time.  Flowers will need to step up and learn quickly how to handle the pitching staff.  If he can do it Chicago will be better off than expected.
Is this his last chance?:
Jake Peavey was one of the top pitchers in the National League from 2004 to 2007 and was the ace of the Padres pitching staff until arm problems slowed his progress.  He tried several times to come back and continued to have issues.  The Padres tried everything they could to avoid giving up on him but eventually they had to move his high salary and the White Sox took a chance.  He went 3-0 in his first few starts in Chicago but again experienced arm problems.  That was followed by a 7-6 2010 and a 7-7 2011.  When he got off to a quick start last season it was greatly hoped that he was over the hump but a tough second half left him with just an 11-12 record.  He is under contract until 2015 but he will need to have a big 2013 and 2014 to achieve the option in his contract.
Prediction: 
4th place in AL Central

Minnesota Twins

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Last Year's Record:
66-96.  5th Place (last) in AL Central
Who's new?*: Kevin Correia (P) free agent from Pirates, Brett Hermsen (P) promoted from minors, Pedro Hernandez (P) trade from White Sox, Trevor May (P) from Phillies, Mike Pelfrey (P) free agent from Mets, Ryan Pressley (P) promoted from minors, Josh Roenicke (P) waivers claim from Rockies, Caleb Theilbar (P) promoted from minors, Michael Tonkin (P) promoted from minors, Tim Wood (P) free agent from Pirates, Vance Worley (P) trade from Phillies, Josmil Pinto (C) promoted from minors, Danny Santana (SS) promoted from minors, Oswaldo Arcia (OF) promoted from minors, Joe Benson (OF) promoted from minors, Aaron Hicks (OF) promoted from minors.
Who left?*:  Jeff Gray (P) free agent to White Sox, Carl Pavano (P) unsigned free agent, Matt Capps(P) free agent to Indians, Kyle Waldrop (P) free agent to Pirates, Matt Maloney (P) unsigned free agent, Alexi Casilla (2B) claimed off waivers by Orioles, Luke Hughes (1B) unsigned free agent, Denard Span (OF) trade to Nationals, Ben Revere (OF) trade to Phillies, Matt Carson (OF) free agent to Indians.
What to expect: 
Twins fans should expect this to be a tough season that they can hopefully look back on in a few years as the start of a successful rebuilding process.  The team picked up a potentially strong player in Vance Worley, but they gave up several strong players in Matt Capps, Alexi Casilla, Denard Span and Ben Revere. 
Why should you root for these guys?: 
The Twins have been one of the most used examples of the "small market" team since that term became fashionable in the late 1990's.  At one point there were discussions of reducing the number of teams in the league and the Twins were one of the teams said to be under consideration as a team that would no longer exist.  Since that talk started  the Twins became consistent playoff contenders until last year.  It may be a few years before they contend again but it is always nice to see the small market teams competitive.
Why might this season not turn out like Twins fans want?: 
The Twins have some absolute stars in Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer and some great role players in Josh Willingham and Jamey Carroll but they do not have enough talent to compete for the top of the division or a wild card spot. The biggest issue is the pitching rotation. Scott Diamond is listed on the team's depth chart as their number one starter but he had surgery to remove bone chips this offseason and has just started his throwing program this week.  He is a very talented pitcher but realistically would be a number three starter on most staffs.  Past the number one spot of the rotation the Twins have little pitching depth and will likely struggle this year.
Don't expect too much from him: 
Justin Mourneau is a big reason the Twins have been contenders for the last decade but injuries, particularly a concussion he sustained in 2010, have plagued him over the last few years.  He has said that this is the first normal offseason he has had in years and that he is past the injuries.  Expect him to be a big contributor to the Twins and a strong leader in the clubhouse but don't anticipate him putting up the MVP numbers he did prior to the concussion.
Expect great things from:
Joe Mauer is a freak  A Catcher that can consistently hit, not just for power.  He can flat out hit the ball.  A Catcher that hits .300 is not normal.  A Catcher that wins batting titles is a freak. Mauer is the face of the Twins franchise and they couldn't have chosen a better, classier person to represent the team.  Mauer's numbers this year may not be enough to keep the Twins in the race but his presence will continue the great history of the Twins tradition.
Time for him to step up:
Vance Worley had a great 2011 season for the Phillies.  He managed to make a major impact in a rotation that was considered to be one of the greatest of all time.  As Lee, Hamels, Halladay and Oswalt dominated the league, Worley went 11-3 as a rookie fifth starter.  In a frustrating season for Phillies fans Worley went 16-9 and his ERA rose to 4.20.  With Diamond possibly still recovering from surgery Worley will need to establish himself as the ace of the staff.  Although the first few starts in Spring Training are not always the best indicator, Worley has not looked like his 2011 self.
Is this his last chance?: 
Mike Pelfrey was expected to blossom in the Mets rotation when he was promoted from the minors in 2006.  He improved gradually and had a strong 2010 (15-9).  He fell off to 7-13 in 2011 and pitched in only 3 games in 2012.  With his talent it likely will not be his last chance in the majors but it may be his last chance as a starter.
Prediction: 
5th place in AL Central.

*-All roster changes are based on active rosters at the end of 2012 and active rosters as of the week of 2/18.  Teams may have non-roster invitees in camp who are not listed in the "Who's New?" category.