***The Division Preview that follows is not betting advice in any way shape or form. Please do not bet any money based in any part on these predictions.***
Don't forget to also check out the AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East and NL Central previews from the past three weeks. Check back next week for the final predictions (with some updates based on injuries and spring training performances) as well as the actual playoff, World Series, MVP and Cy Young predictions.It may be a surprise but this division has produced 6 World Series participants since the three division format began in 1995. The six league participants were the Padres (1998), Diamondbacks (2001), Giants (2002), Rockies (2007) and Giants (2010 and 2012). The Diamondbacks and the last two Giants teams won it all, while the 2002 Giants lost Game 7 to the Angels.
This division has also produced some of the best rivalries in the sport. The Giants-Dodgers has always been a great rivalry and with both teams fielding competitive teams the rivalry should be at a flash point this year. For a few years in the middle of the 2000's the Padres-Dodgers rivarly was heating up as well, as the two teams were constantly fighting each other for the top spot. When both teams started to fall off the rivalry cooled.
Similar to the American League West and the National League East, every team has spent time in every part of the division. The Giants (1997, 2000, 2003, 2010 and 2012) and Diamondbacks (1999, 2001, 2002, 2007 and 2011) have won the most division titles. They are followed closely by the Dodgers (1995, 2004, 2008 and 2009) and Padres (1996, 1998, 2005 and 2006). The Rockies reached the World Series as a Wild Card in 2007.
This division is much more competitive than most fans give it credit for. The Rockies are clearly at the bottom of the league and one of the worst teams in baseball. The rest of the division is very closely contested. The Giants always seem to come out on top despite low national expectations and the Padres and Dodgers are improving. Here is how I see it playing out:
San Francisco Giants
94-68 (1st in NL West)
Defeated Reds 3-2 in NLDS
Defeated Cardinals 4-3 in NLCS
Defeated Tigers 4-0 in World Series
Who's new?*:
Jake Dunning (P) promoted from minors, Edwin Escobar (P) promoted from minors, Chris Heston (P) promoted from minors, Sandy Rosario (P) waiver claim from Cubs, Tony Abreu (2B) waiver claim from Royals, Ehre Adrianza (SS) promoted from minors , Nick Noonan (SS) promoted from minors , Angel Villalona (1B) promoted from minors, Roger Kieschnick (OF) promoted from minors, Juan Perez (OF) promoted from minors, Andres Torres (OF) free agent from Mets.
Who left?*:
Eric Hacker (P) unsigned free agent, Clay Hensley (P) free agent to Reds, Guillermo Mota (P) unsigned free agent, Brad Penny (P) unsigned free agent , Brian Wilson (P) unsigned free agent , Eli Whiteside (C)waiver claim by Yankees , Ryan Theriot (2B) unsigned free agent, Emmanuel Burriss (2B) free agent to Reds, Melky Cabrera (OF) free agent to Blue Jays, Aubrey Huff (OF) unsigned free agent, Justin Christian (OF) free agent to Cardinals.
What to expect:
With the exception of Melky Cabrera moving on to Toronto, this team is returning almost untouched. That is something quite rare for a World Series Champion in today's game. The Giants may have even upgraded over Cabrera by adding Andres Torres from the Mets. If Lincecum is healthy and Zito can continue his resurgence the rest of the league may be chasing the Giants all summer.
Why should you root for these guys?:
Dating all the way back to the days of John McGraw, Christy Matthewson and Roger Bresnahan's days in New York the Giants are a big part of the history of the league. They had long runs of success from 1904-1924, 1933-1938, 1951-1962 and then a long absence from the consistently good teams everyne remembered until the early part of this century.
Why might this season not turn out like Giants fans want?:
Several players may have overachieved last year including Barry Zito, who overcame several seasons below expectations to win 15 games and give the Giants strong playoff pitching performances,and Marco Scutaro, who was looked at as a liability heading into the playoffs. The pitching staff is the key and a strong Lincecum is the key to the pitching staff. If Lincecum struggles and Zito does not overachieve again look for the Giants to look very catchable.
Don't expect too much from him:
Sergio Romo did not want to be a closer last year, he just kind of worked his way into the job. The Giants needed someone to replace the injured Brian Wilson an he did such a good job that the Giants did not resign a healthy Wilson. Romo did not really have time to think about his new position, he just had to adapt. Now that he has had time to think about the importance he may or may not be able to repeat the performance.
Expect great things from:
Buster Posey has played two full seasons in the majors. In 2010 he won Rookie of the Year and the Giants won the World Series. In 2011 he was injured and missed most of the year with a broken ankle and the Giants missed the playoffs. In 2012 Posey came back and won an MVP and Silver Slugger award and the Giants again won the World Series. Posey seems to be in the middle of everything good that happens to the Giants. As long as he's behind the plate the giants have the chance to win.
Time for him to step up:
After winning two of the last three World Series and getting clutch performances from unexpected players it is hard to say anyone needs to step up.
Is this his last chance?:
Tim Lincecum was probably asking whatever happened to loyalty. The four time All Star, two time Cy Young Award winner and best pitcher in baseball, had an off year. You could call it a terrible year. When he finished 10-15 with an ERA above 5.00 he was left out of the playoff rotation and moved to long relief. It seems like his great contributons to the rebirth of the Giants organization have been forgotten and he will need to have a big season to stay in the rotation.
Prediction:
1st place in NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
86-76 (2nd in NL West)
Who's new?*:
Steve Ames (P) promoted from minors, Zack Greinke (P) free agent from Angels, J.P. Howell (P) free agent from Rays, Matt Magill (P) promoted from minors, Hyun-Jin Ryu (P) free agent from Korea, Chris Withrow (P) promoted from minors, Skip Schumacker (SS) trade from Cardinals, Yasiel Puig (OF) promoted from minors.
Who left?*:
Joe Blanton (P) free agent to Angels, Randy Choate (P) free agent to Cardinals , Todd Coffey (P) unsigned free agent, John Ely (P) trade to Astros, Jamey Wright (P) free agent to Rays, Matt Treanor (C) unsigned free agent, Adam Kennedy (2B) unsigned free agent, Shane Victorino (OF) free agent to Red Sox, Bobby Abreu (OF) unsigned free agent , Juan Rivera (OF) free agent to Yankees .
What to expect:
The Dodgers have a lot of potential and an almost unlimited payroll. Injuries and questions about who is playing where could lead to a slow start and added pressure. Dodgers fans should be excited about the future but it may still take them a few years to get the right combination of players to reach the World Series. Regardless, this team is too talented not to challenge for a Wild Card spot.
Why should you root for these guys?:
When the Dodgers and Giants are both good at the same time it means the best rivalry in the history of sports is at its best. This rivalry goes back to the beginning of professioal baseball and has only grown as the years go on. If things go right for the Dodgers, the northern California-southern California rivalry should be at its most vicious.
Why might this season not turn out like Dodgers fans want?:
Teams like the Dodgers could go one of two ways: it could be the greatest collection of talent we have seen in a long time or it could be a train wreck that ends up with players scattered across the league at the trading deadline. On paper the Dodgers are an All Star team all by themselves. In reality there are some issues. Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, Chad Billingsley and Zack Greinke are already suffering from injuries. Hanley Ramirez is out for the first two months and now there is the question of whether to move Luis Cruz from thirdbase to shortstop or leave him at third and play Dee Gordon (who for some reason has not impressed the Dodgers managment). Dee Gordon was moved to the minor league camp on Tuesday so Cruz will be playing mostly at shortstop but that still leaves the question of who will play third? The pitching rotation somehow has 8 solid starters but no one seems to know who is in the rotation. The lineup is not quite set as Crawford and Kemp will be playing hur on opening day, Cruz is playing shortstop, or thirdbase or...? Andre Ethier is constantly mentioned in trade rumors. The players love Don Mattingly but the ownership has refused to give him an extended contract until he has proven he can get this team deep in the playoffs. Adding to Mattingly's troubles could be having Mark McGwire as the new hitting coach. It is hard to imagine two people with more varying philosphies in hitting. It could lead to mixed signals to players looking for batting help. The new ownership has spent a ton of money and expects results now.
Don't expect too much from him:
Matt Kemp has tremendous talent and should have won the 2011 MVP. The expectations coming into the 2012 season for Kemp were unrealistic. He had a good season by most players' standards (especially when his injuries are taken into account) but it was considered a disappointment. Kemp had significant surgery in the offseason. Expect Kemp to fall somewhere in between the 2011 spectacular season and the 2012 "disappointment". If the talent around him performs he won't need to reach the 2011 numbers for the team to reach the playoffs.
Expect great things from:
Adrian Gonzales had a rough stay in Boston and was happy to return to Southern California. He made a big splash in his Dodgers debut but as the season went on his struggles continued. Gonzales consistently worked on trying to correct his problems himself but finally went to McGwire for help. He found that he was lifting his head and getting his hands too far out in front in an atempt to hit with more power. With the work he has put in this year and his natural talent expect Gonzales to return to his San Diego performance level.
Time for him to step up:
A.J. Ellis took over for Russell Martin when Martin moved on to New York. He took over an underachieving pitching staff. The staff is now full of veteran, All Star, highly paid pitchers who know what they want to throw. Ellis is still a young catcher who will need to confidently call a game and be able to demand the respect and trust of the veteran pitchers. If he allows the pitcher to take control and go away from the scouting reports the Dodgers will have a long summer.
Is this his last chance?:
Josh Beckett's stay in Boston started off with great results. It ended with hard feelings and bad statistics. There were stories of Beckett being a problem in the clubhouse and having a poor attitude. Beckett has not shown any of these signs in his short time in Los Angeles and without the pressure of being the ace of the staff he can relax and pitch but if things don't go well, he is old enough that teams may think twice about adding him to ther staff.
Prediction:
2nd Place in NL West (2nd Wild Card)
San Diego Padres
76-86 (4th in NL West)
Who's new?*:
Fautino De los Santos (P) waiver claim from Brewers, Jose De Paula (P) pomoted from minors, Adys Portillo (P) promoted from minors, Tyson Ross (P) trade from Athletics, Edinson Rincon (3B) promoted from minors, Yeison Asencio (OF) promoted from minors, Jaff Decker (OF) promoted from minors, Rymer Liriano (OF) promoted from minors.
Who left?*:
Cory Burns (P) trade to Rangers, Dustin Moseley (P) unsigned free agent , Ross Ohlendorf (P) free agent to Nationals, Micah Owings (P) free agent to Nationals, Matt Palmer (P) free agent to Dodgers, Josh Spence (P) waiver claim by Yankees, Kip Wells (P) unsigned free agent , Andrew Werner (P) trade to Athletics, Ali Solis (C) waiver claim by Pirates, Andy Parrino (SS) trade to Athletics.
What to expect:
The common perception is that the Padres have been bad for a long time. The reality is that it was only six years ago that the Padres lost a one game playoff to the Rockies for the Wild Card spot and only three years since they went into the final two games of the season with a chance to win the division over the eventual World Champion Giants. This is a different team than the one that nearly won in 2010 but the second half of 2012 certainly got Padres fans excited.
Why should you root for these guys?:
The Padres are generally considered a baseball graveyard. A few years ago the typical thought of San Diego was that they were a terrible team and it was a shame that someone as talented as Adrian Gonzalez was wasting his talent. That season they almost won the division. Over the next two years, the Padres traded away their talent or lost most of them to free agency. Yet during the second half of last year, the Padres played great ball. For the Padres players who stuck around after the near win a few years ago it would be nice to see them overcome the low budget and poor perceptions.
Why might this season not turn out like Padres fans want?:
The Padres had a very strong second half of 2012 that seemed to imply that Bud Black had the team moving in the right direction. It is possible that the second half was misleading as the roster does not appear to have the talent needed to compete with the Dodgers and Giants.
Don't expect too much from him:
Carlos Quentin's career with the White Sox got off to a great start. He made two All Star teams and finished in the top 5 of MVP voting. He was traded to San Diego before the 2012 season but suffered with injuries. Quentin likely won't finish in the top 5 in MVP voting but he should make good contributions to the Padres.
Expect great things from:
Chase Headley had a breakout 2012 season. He hit 31 Home Runs, nearly doubling his career total, and drove in 115 runs. Headley seems to have finally figured it all out and will be the leader of this team. If he repeats his 2012 numbers the Padres may surprise a lot of people. He may have some trouble getting started as he jammed his thumb and is likely starting the season on the disabled list.
Time for him to step up:
Edinson Volquez showed great promise in his few years in Cincinnati even going 17-6 in 2008 and starting the All Star game. Since then he has failed to live up to expectations and after his 17 win season he failed to win more than 5 games in any season. When Mat Latos became available, the Reds jumped at the chance. In San Diego Volquez was spectacular going 11-11 on a losing team. He needs to be the pitcher he was in 2008 if San Diego wants to challenge for a Wild Card spot.
Is this his last chance?:
Yasmani Grandal came to San Diego from the Reds along with Volquez in the deal that sent Mat Latos to the Reds. He played in a total of 50 games in 2012 and hit .298 but will miss the first 50 games of the season with a PED suspension. Manager Bud Black was not secretive about his displeasure over the suspension and the negative impact it had, especially after the positive end to last year. When Grandal comes back he will need to have an impact to make it up to his teammates.
Prediction:
3rd Place NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks
81-81 (3rd in NL West)
Who's new?*:
Chase Anderson (P) promoted from minors, Heath Bell (P) trade from Marlins , Charles Brewer (P) promoted from minors , Eury de la Rosa (P) promoted from minors, Randall Delgado (P) trade from Braves, Brandon McCarthy (P) free agent from Athletics , Starling Peralta (P) Rule 5 draft pick from Cubs, Matt Reynolds (P) trade from Rockies, Tony Sipp (P) trade from Indians, Eric Smith (P) promoted from minors, Zeke Spruill (P) trade from Braves, Eric Chavez (3B) free agent from Yankees, Didi Gregorious (SS) trade from Reds , Cliff Pennington (SS) free agent from Athletics , Martin Prado (3B) trade from Braves, Keon Broxton (OF) promoted from minors, Tony Campana (OF) trade from Cubs, Eric Hinske (OF) free agent from Braves, Alfredo Marte (OF) promoted from minors, Cody Ross (OF) free agent from Red Sox.
Who left?*:
Jonathan Albaladejo (P) free agent to Marlins, Matt Albers (P) trade to Indians, Trevor Bauer (P) trade to Indians, Brad Bergesen (P) unsigned free agent, Sam Demel (P) waiver claim by Astros, Matt Lindstrom (P) free agent to White Sox, Joe Martinez (P) free agent to Indians, Takashi Saito (P) unsigned free agent, Bryan Shaw (P) trade to Indians, Mike Zagurski (P) free agent to Pirates, Knorad Schmidt (C) waiver claim by Rangers, Henry Blanco (C) free agent to Blue Jays, Mike Jacobs (1B) free agent to Mariners, Ryan Wheeler (3B) trade to Rockies, Chris Johnson (3B) trade to Braves, Geoff Blum (3B) unsigned free agent, Josh Bell (3B) unsigned free agent , Jake Elmore (SS) waiver claim by Astros, Chris Young (OF) trade to Athletics, Justin Upton (OF) trade to Braves, Tyler Graham (OF) unsigned free agent.
What to expect:
The Diamondbacks surprised everyone with a division title in 2011. They disappointed everyone with a poor 2012. They shocked everyone by trading away Justin Upton. The Diamondbacks seem to be a team at war with itself and with few established stars. As the Dodgers and Padres improve and the Giants remain consistent the Diamondbacks will need to figure out what direction they are headed.
Why should you root for these guys?:
The players on this team have lost their leader and marquee player . Justin Upton led the team to a playoff appearance in 2011 and very nearly beat the Brewers in the NLDS that year and very nearly won the MVP. It is unclear what caused the Diamondbacks to sour on Upton but the players left behind are suffering for it.
Why might this season not turn out like Diamondbacks fans want?:
The big bat and leader on this team was Justin Upton. With Upton gone the Diamondbacks will need to get a big performance from a lot of players to pick up the slack. The biggest problem is the lack of pitching. Although Ian Kennedy, Brandon McCarthy and Trevor Cahill have potential they all had down years (McCarthy suffered an injury causing him to miss significant time for the A's). They will need the pitiching staff to reach their potential if they want a chance to get in the playoffs.
Don't expect too much from him:
Adam Eaton has a total of 22 games in the major leagues. He is replacing one of the best players in the history of the organization, Justin Upton. It was announced last week that he will miss 6-8 weeks with an elbow sprain. Adam Eaton has a lot of potential and could push for a Rookie of the Year award when he returns but an MVP, or Justin Upton type numbers, are out of the question.
Expect great things from:
Martin Prado came to Arizona from the Braves in exchange for Justin Upton. Prado is a .300 hitter and may not have the power of Upton but he has the speed at the top of the lineup that Arizona needs. Prado was well respected in the Braves clubhouse and some were not happy to see him go, especially so quickly after Chipper Jones left. Expect Prado to bring the same leadership to Arizona.
Time for him to step up:
When the Diamondbacks reached the playoffs in 2011, Paul Goldschmidt hit .306 with 30 Home Runs and drove in 94 runs. In the 5 game NLDS against the Brewers he hit .438 with 2 Home Runs (one of them a Grand Slam) and 6 RBI. His follow up season was much less impressive. He hit only .286, drove in only 86 and hit only 20 Home Runs. With the loss of Upton the team will need Goldschmidt to blossom into the team leader and to lead with his powerful bat.
Is this his last chance?:
Eric Chavez was a star in this league in the early 2000's. As the Oakland Third Baseman Chavez was a recognizable name and was used in nationwide advertising for the playoffs from 2000-2002. Back problems slowed his career but he has remained a solid contributor and filled in nicely for the Yankees when Alex Rodriguez was injured last year. Chavez will not be a starter but will see significant playing time. Chavez has always been a class act but he may not have many more chances to win a title.
Prediction:
4th Place in NL West
Colorado Rockies
64-98 (5th Place in NL West)
Who's new?*:
Joe Gardner (P) promoted from minors, Wilton Lopez (P) trade from Astros , Daniel Rosenbaum (P) rule 5 draft pick from Nationals, Josh Sullivan (P) promoted from minors, Cristhian Adames (SS) promoted from minors , Reid Brigniac (SS) trade from Rays , Charlie Culberson (2B) trade from Giants , Ryan Wheeler (3B) trade from Diamondbacks , Tim Wheeler (OF) promoted from minors.
Who left?*:
Mike Ekstrom (P) free agent to Athletics, Jeremy Guthrie (P) free agent to Royals , Guillermo Moscoso (P) waiver claim by Royals, Zach Putnam (P) free agent to Cubs , Matt Reynolds (P) trade to Diamondbacks, Josh Roenicke (P) waiver claim by Twins, Carlos Torres (P) free agent to Mets, Alex White (P) trade to Astros, Thomas Field (2B) waiver claim by Twins , Andrew Brown (OF) free agent to Mets, Jason Giambi (1B) free agent to Indians.
What to expect:
The Rockies faithful need to have low expectations. Very low. Instead of aiming to win a wild card spot they should aim to avoid finishing below the Astros, Marlins and Mets for the worst record in baseball.
Why should you root for these guys?:
The Rockies are in a truly terrible period of their history. They have three great players in Troy Tulowitski, Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzales but little else. Anyone who enjoys rooting for the underdog, here's your team.
Why might this season not turn out like Rockies fans want?:
Similar to the Astros, Rockies fans need to be realistic. This is not a good team. Although they have some talent it is not enough to keep them competitive and if they are blown away with offers for the talent they have don't be surprised to see Tulowitski and Carlos Gonzales in new uniforms by the trading deadline.
Don't expect too much from him:
Carlos Gonzalez caught fire in the second half of the 2010 season and finished the season with a .336 average. Imagine what that season could have been like for te Rockies if Gonzalez's amazing second half could have been timed with Ubaldo Jimenez's amazing first hhalf. At any rate, it wasn't and the Rockies had a bad year but Gonzalez was anointed by some as the best hitter in the game and the best hitter for the next era. He has followed up that season with a .295 and a .303 average Gonzlaez is a great player and if he were playing in a lineup with some better protction he might see some better pitches. Gonzalez will be a near .300 hitter but don't expect him to be the greatest hitter of the era.
Expect great things from:
Troy Tulowitski was a big reason the team reached the World Series in 2007. He has been the clear star and fan favorite of the team since then. Tulowitski is healthy again and should be back to his best after a few down seasons.
Time for him to step up:
Jeff Francis was one of the pitching stars (17-6) of the 2007 World Series team and was expected to continue his excellence for many years. Since then he has gone 4-10 (2008), 4-6 (2010), 6-16 (2011 in Kansas City) and 6-7 (2012). Francis needs to recapture the magic that took the rockies to a surprise World Series appearance.
Is this his Last Chance?:
Todd Helton has been the team's most identifiable player over the history of the franchise. He is likeTony Gwynn in San Diego, Ken Griffey Jr in Seattle or George Brett in Kansas City. Helton is the Rockies. h\He has been their best player but he is now almost 40 and his average dropped to .238 as he played in less than 70 games. Helton will continue to represent the team with class but he will not likely be hitting .350 any more. A playoff contending team looking for a strong veteran addition to get over the hump (read Padres, Pirates or A's) may make an offer for Helton at the trade deadline. It may be his only chance to win.
Prediction: 5th Place in NL West
*-All roster changes are based on active rosters at the end of 2012 and active rosters as of the week of 3/3. Teams may have non-roster invitees in camp who are not listed in the "Who's New?" category.
Very thorough analysis.
ReplyDeleteHard to believe the Dodgers have not been in the WS since the 3 division format. Probably because of the former owner.
I hope Romo becomes the Giants closer. He really seems to be a good pitcher. Great observation on Lincicum. His he really a flash in the pan?
Good observation on the future of the Dodgers. The Giants are the strong team now, but the Dodgers finally have direction and a future. Very insightful in the inner workings of the Dodgers (i.e. Mattingly. McGuire)