***The Division Preview that follows is not betting advice in any way shape or form. Please do not bet any money based in any part on these predictions.***
Don't forget to also check out the AL East, AL Central, AL West and NL East previews from the past three weeks. Check back next week for the NL Central preview.
This is a division in transition. The Reds are clearly on the incline while Milwaukee and St.Louis are falling towards the middle or bottom. The Cubs are greatly improved and the Pirates (the only team in the division not to make the playoffs since the league moved to the three division format) are actually expected to compete for a playoff spot. The division has changed since last season as the Astros have now moved to the American League West.
This division has provided fewer World Series participants than any other National League division. The division did not produce a league Champion until the 2004 Cardinals. Since then the division has only sent three more participants (2005 Astros, 2006 Cardinals and 2011 Cardinals).
Obviously the Cardinals have dominated the division for most of the NL Central's existence. The Cardinals have won the division seven times (1996, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2009). The Reds have won three division titles (1995, 2010 and 2012). The Cubs have won three division titles (2003, 2007 and 2008). The Astros won four division titles before moving to the American League West (1997, 1998, 1999 and 2001). The Brewers have won the division one time (2011) and the Pirates have never won the division.
Although the Reds are clearly the best in the division, the other four teams could land in any of the other four spots. Here is how I see it playing out:
Cincinnati Reds
97-65 (1st Place in NL Central)
Lost to Giants 3-2 in NLDS.
Who's new?*:
Carlos Contreras (P) promoted from minors, Daniel Corcino (P) promoted from minors, Ismael Guillion (P) promoted from minors, Kyle Lotzkar (P) promoted from minors, Nick Massett (P) return from injury , Manny Parra (P) free agent from Brewers , Curtis Partch (P) promoted from minors, Josh Ravin (P) promoted from minors, Jason Donald (3B) trade from Indians, Jack Hannahan (3B) free agent from Indians, Donald Lutz (1B) promoted from minors, Neftali Soto (1B) promoted from minors, Shin-Soo Choo (OF) trade from Indians, Yoman Rodriguez (OF) promoted from minors.
Who left?*:
Bill Bray (P) free agent to Nationals, Todd Redmond (P) waiver claim by Orioles, Dioner Navarro (C) free agent to Cubs, Scott Rolen (3B) unsigned free agent, Miguel Cairo (SS) unsigned free agent, Wilson Valdez (SS) free agent to Giants , Didi Gregorious (SS) trade to Indians , Drew Stubbs (OF) trade to Indians, Willie Harris (UT) unsigned free agent, Mike Constanzo (UT) free agent to Nationals.
What to expect:
The Reds have some unfinished business. They had the best record in the NL for a good part of last season and Johnny Cueto was truly great last season. The last month of the season was tough. There was a controversy over whether the team was better with Todd Frazier or Scott Rolen in the everyday lineup. Dusty Baker suffered a stroke and Johnny Cueto suffered an arm injury in the first playoff game. The Reds were the favorites going into the playoffs last year and had Cueto been healthy and Buster Posey not crushed their dream with one swing in game 5 of the NLDS things might have gone different. Expect the Reds to be angry about the way last season ended and enter this year with a determination to correct it.
Why should you root for these guys?:
The Reds are the original franchise. Literally. The Cincinnati Redstockings way back in 1869 paid the first ever professional players. Since then they have gone through waves of spectacular achievements (1919, 1940, 1975-1976, 1990 World Series Champions) as well as unspeakable lows (Pete Rose's scandal, Marge Schott's controversy, the controversy of the 1981 split season). The league is always better when the original teams are competitive. In addition, Dusty Baker is one of the most underrated managers in history. He led the Giants to Game 7 in 2002 before being beaten by the Angels. He led the Cubs to within a few innings of their first World Series since 1945. Since taking over the Reds he has led them to two playoff appearances in the last three years, their first appearances in 15 years. Baker has been questioned by the fans over whether he is the right man for the job and deserves nothing less than the hardware to prove that he is.
Why might this season not turn out like Reds fans want?:
There are still plenty of questions for this team that have taken up nearly all of the off season. Is Todd Frazier as good as he played in his rookie year? Will Aroldis Chapman be a starter despite Baker's wishes that he still close? Will Broxton be the Broxton of 2008 or the Broxton of 2010? Will Shin Soo Choo be the lead off hitter that Cincinnati thought Drew Stubbs would be? Luckily the Reds will have Baker to lead them and find the right answers to these questions and any others that might pop up. Baker has already answered one question., Chapman will be the closer but now the question is what will happen to Broxton?
Don't expect too much from him:
Todd Frazier started the year as a utility player off the bench filling in wherever the Reds needed him and pinch hitting. By late July it was clear that he was having a great rookie season and needed to play everyday. When Scott Rolen suffered through injuries Frazier forced Baker to decide between an unproven hot bat and an aching, recovering veteran. Rolen went 4-16 in the NLDS. Frazier went 1-6. Frazier will get a full season to prove that he is the third baseman of the future. Don't expect him to put up the numbers that earned Rolen his reputation but do expect him to be a key role player in the Reds drive for a pennant.
Expect great things from:
Brandon Phillips is hands down the best second baseman in the National League. With Chase Utley suffering through several injury filled seasons Phillips has become the best at the position. It is almost impossible to believe some of the plays he makes and what is even more impossible to believe is that there was no room for him on the All Star team last year. Phillips not only shines in the field, he is a big piece of the Reds offensive attack and has good speed, great knowledge and great leadership skills. When Votto went down with injuries last year Phillips caught fire until he also went down with injuries. If he has a full season, look for Phillips to become the first Reds second baseman to win an MVP since Joe Morgan (who ironically will have his statue unveiled outside the stadium this year).
Time for him to step up:
Mike Leake started off the 2010 season on an unbelievable streak. He was one of the big reasons for the Reds first playoff appearance since 1995. He went 12-9 in 2011 and only 8-9 in 2012. The Reds will need Leake to step up and show that he is the pitcher he was in the first half of 2010.
Is this his last chance?:
Johnathon Broxton was the Dodgers closer when they made playoff runs in 2008 and 2009. The 2010 and 2011 seasons were disasters for Broxton. He somehow lost his ability to shut other teams down. Joe Torre stuck with him as long as he could but the fans turned on him and it was bad enough that the Dodgers had to change their billboard ads to remove Broxton. Broxton moved the Royals as a free agent for 2012 and moved to the Reds in a trading deadline deal. If Broxton does not force the Reds to keep Chapman in the rotation he may not find many more opportunities to close.
Prediction:
1st Place in NL Central
Pittsburgh Pirates
79-83 (4th Place in NL Central)
Who's new?*:
Vic Black (P) promoted from minors, Jeanmar Gomez (P) trade from Indians, Phil Irwin (P) promoted from minors, Francisco Liriano (P) free agent from White Sox , Mark Melancon (P) trade from Red Sox, Andy Oliver (P) trade from Tigers, Stolmy Pimentel (P) trade from Red Sox, Hunter Strickland (P) free agent from minors, Duke Welker (P) promoted from minors, Russell Martin (C) free agent from Yankees, Tony Sanchez (C) promoted from minors, Jerry Sands (OF)trade from Red Sox, Brandon Inge (3B) free agent from Athletics.
Who left?*:
Kevin Correia (P) free agent to Twins, Joel Hanrahan (P) trade to Red Sox, Daniel McCutchen (P) free agent to Orioles, Evan Meek (P) free agent to Rangers, Chad Qualls (P) free agent to Marlins, Chris Resop (P) trade to Athletics, Doug Slaten (P) unsigned free agent, Hisanori Takahashi (P) free agent to Cubs , Rick Van den Hurk (P) unsigned free agent, Rod Barajas (C) free agent to Diamondbacks, Jeff Clement (1B) free agent to Twins, Brock Holt (2B) trade to Red Sox, Gorkys Hernandez (OF) , Eric fryer (OF) free agent to Twins , Drew Sutton (OF) free agent to Red Sox, Yamaico Navarro (UT) trade to Orioles.
What to expect:
Pirates fans are frustrated, and rightfully so. After two straight seasons of teasing the fans, the Pirates have fallen off late in the year. Pirates fans will likely benefit from the second wild card position and Pirates fans can look forward to a competitive season and hopefully the first winning season in a very long time.
Why should you root for these guys?:
Just like the Cincinnati Reds, the Pirates have a long history of winning, although you wouldn't be able to tell from the last 20 years. When the modern era began in 1900 the Pirates were the absolute dominant team led by Honus Wagner, Fred Clarke and Tommy Leach. The Pirates lost the first World Series to the Red Sox in 1903 and won their first World Series in 1909 in the first ever 7 Game World Series. Since then the Pirates have won the World Seres in 1925, 1960, 1971 and 1979 and reached the World Series but lost in 1927. The Pirates also dominated the National League East in the 1970's and early 1990's winning the division in 1970, 1971, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1979, 1990, 1991 and 1992. Every era of the Pirates' success has produced some of the most recognizable names in the history of the game: Honus Wagner, Lloyd Waner, Paul Waner, Pie Traynor, Roberto Clemente, Dick Groat, Bill Mazeroski, Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonillia, Andy Van Slyke. Also similar to the Reds, the league is better when they are competitive.
Why might this season not turn out like Pirates fans want?:
It is unbelievably difficult, in any sport, to overcome a culture of losing in an organization. You can imagine going to work at your own job everyday with the feeling of dread that before you get there it is already a bad day. The Pirates have had that losing culture since 1993. Clint Hurdle, one of the most underrated managers in baseball, has worked hard to instill a positive attitude in the clubhouse but late collapses in both of the last two years could lead the Pirates to dread August and September this year.
Don't expect too much from him:
James McDonald came to the Pirates from the Dodgers in a trade deadline deal in 2010 for Octavio Dotel. The Pirates have clearly gotten the better of the deal as McDonald has shown stretches of great promise. McDonald had a first half that had many asking why he did not pitch on the All Star team. His second half was almost the exact opposite. McDonald finished the season 12-8 with a 4.41 ERA. The true James McDonald is probably somewhere between the great 9-3 first half and the dismal 4-5 second half. You can expect McDonald to improve this year but don't expect 20 wins.
Expect great things from:
Andrew McCutcheon had a break out year in 2012. At least that's what most people believed. The truth is he just improved on his break out season of 2011 and with an increased confidence (and a hell of a work ethic) McCutcheon will likely improve on last season. McCutcheon is the leader of this team and will need some support from other players but if the Pirates make the playoffs you can expect McCutcheon to be a strong MVP candidate.
Time for him to step up:
Russell Martin started his career as an All Star Catcher (converted from Third Base) for the Dodgers. The Dodgers had Dionner Navarro set to be the Catcher of the future with high expectations before Martin made it clear that he was the better option. Martin was one of the top Catchers in the league until a single misstep in 2010 separated his hip. The uncertainty of his health led the Dodgers to allow him to move on to the Yankees where he had average numbers. Martin had a strong late August and September last year and showed signs of being the same Russell Martin that Dodgers fans fell in love with in Los Angeles. The Pirates will not only need Martin to return to his All Star form and continue his success of late 2012, they will need him to bring the winning attitude he experienced in Los Angeles and New York.
Is this his last chance?:
Wandy Rodriguez pitched well for the Houston Astros 2005 World Series team but when the starting rotation includes Roy Oswalt, Roger Clemens and Andy Pettite it is easy to get overlooked. Rodriguez pitched in two games in that World Series, showing enough promise to be considered the future ace of the team. His 2005 10-10 season was followed up by 9-10, 9-13 and 9-7 seasons. He finally seemed to get on track in 2009 with a 14-12 season but he again disappointed the Astros in 2010 (11-12) and 2011 (11-11) leading them to trade him to Pittsburgh in a deadline deal in 2012. Rodriguez no longer has the pressure of being the ace of the staff and the fresh start in the excited Pittsburgh environment may give his career the jump start he needs. If not he may be moved to a long relief position instead of a starter.
Prediction:
2nd Place in NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals
88-74 (2nd Place in NL Central, Second Wild Card)
Defeated Braves in Wild Card Game
Defeated Nationals 3-2 in NLDS
Lost to Giants 4-3 in NLCS
Who's new?*:
Michael Blazek (P) promoted from minors, Keith Butler (P) promoted from minors, Randy Choate (P) free agent from Dodgers , Eric Fornataro (P) promoted from minors , Jorge Rondon (P) promoted from minors, Kevin Siegrist (P) promoted from minors, Ronny Cedeno (SS) free agent from Mets, Ty Wigginton (3B) free agent from Phillies.
Who left?*:
Brian Fuentes (P) unsigned free agent, Chris Carpenter (P) injury, Kyle Lohse (P) unsigned free agent , Kyle McClellan (P) free agent to Rangers, Lance Berkman (1B) free agent to Rangers,Skip Schumaker (2B) trade to Dodgers, Rafael Furcal (SS) injury, Bryan Anderson (UT) free agent to White Sox.
What to expect:
The Cardinals lost their leader in Albert Pujols in 2012 but they managed to get a great season out of Carlos Beltran to minimize the damage. The Cardinals may have over achieved in 2012, riding the emotion of an unbelievable 2011 World Series win and coming within one victory of reaching the World Series. This off season is the exact opposite. They will have to recover from the devastating end to the 2012 season as well as the loss for the season of two of their great team leaders, Chris Carpenter and Rafael Furcal, to injuries. Add to that the losses of Kyle Lohse and Lance Berkman to free agency and Skip Schumaker in a trade with few additions to offset the losses and you have the potential for a big drop off in St. Louis.
Why should you root for these guys?:
I don't mean to sound repetitive but the Cardinals have a tradition of being one of the most successful teams in the history of the game. They did not win their first World Series until 1926 but since then they have had very few periods where they were not competitive. Only the Yankees (27) have more World Series wins than the Cardinals, who also claim the best fan base in baseball. For anyone who longs for some team to catch the Yankees as the winningest franchise, the Cardinals are your best bet (just have some patience because it could take a long time).
Why might this season not turn out like Cardinals fans want?:
Similar to the Phillies, this could be a defining year for the Cardinals. The organization could go one of two ways: they could get angry over the way last year ended and fight the world to prove they were the better team or the end of last season could lead to a negative outlook in the clubhouse. The Cardinals had two players on the 2012 roster who could help prevent the latter: Rafael Furcal and Chris Carpenter. Both men will be out for the year. Carpenter's career might be in jeopardy. Last year Carpenter missed most of the season but the team could track his progress knowing that if they could just make the playoffs their ace would be there with his winning aura. This year they know that he won't be there. It is a huge psychological swing. Add to that the loss of Furcal for the year. Any fan in Los Angeles or St.Louis will tell you that Furcal brings more to the team than just the numbers on the back of his baseball card. Furcal was a "motor guy", he was the spark plug that started everything and brought the energy to the lineup. When the 2011 Cardinals fought their way to a World Series win Furcal was usually the one who was making things happen. The loss of the leadership of these two players could not have come at a worse possible time.
Don't expect too much from him:
Pete Kozma has an opportunity to prove he can be a major league Shortstop. He played in 26 games last year and hit .333 with 24 hits, 10 of them for extra bases. Kozma has some big shoes to fill in taking over for Rafael Furcal. Kozma will probably not be an all star or rookie of the year candidate but he does have a chance to contribute to the Cardinals season.
Expect great things from:
Adam Wainwright missed the entire 2011 World Series Championship season but returned last season to win 14 games. While the Cardinals would have loved to have their 1-2 punch of Wainwright and Carpenter they will have to settle for just Wainwright. Expect Wainwright to continue his excellent career and possibly be a 20 game winner.
Time for Him to Step Up:
Matt Holliday has been an All Star and considered one of the best players in the game. He has one big flaw: his fielding. Cardinals fans have been patient, even giving him a standing ovation after his failed catch allowed the Dodgers to win a 2009 playoff game the Cardinals should have won. The Cardinals need Holliday to improve his fielding as well as bringing his average above .300, where it has been his entire career, except for 2011 and 2012. With the loss of Berkman and Furcal Holliday will need to work with Beltran to lead this team.
Is this his last chance?:
Rafael Furcal will miss this entire season. His season last year ended early for the same elbow issues. While playing with the Dodgers he had major problems because of his back and missed parts of nearly every season in Los Angeles. Furcal hopes to be back next season but it may not be with the Cardinals. His contract expires at the end of the season.
Prediction:
3rd Place in NL Central
Chicago Cubs
61-101 (5th in NL Central)
Who's new?*:
Scott Baker (P) free agent from Twins , Scott Feldman (P) free agent from Rangers, Kyuji Fujikawa (P) free agent from Japan, Edwin Jackson (P) free agent from Nationals, Trey McNutt (P) promoted from minors, Hector Rondon (P) Rule 5 draft pick from Indians, Carlos Villanueva (P) free agent from Blue Jays , Arodys Vizcaino (P) trade from Braves, Robert Whitenack (P) promoted from minors, Dioner Navarro (C) free agent from Reds, Junior Lake(SS) promoted from minors, Christian Villanueva (3B) free agent from minors , Logan Watkins (2B) free agent from minors ,Scott Hairston (OF) free agent from Mets, Nate Schierholtz (OF) free agent from Phillies, Jorge Soler (OF) free agent from Cuba, Matt Szczur (OF) promoted from minors.
Who left?*:
Jeff Beliveu (P) waiver claim by Rangers, Manuel Corpas (P) free agent to Rockies, Justin Germano (P) , Alex Hinshaw (P) free agent to Blue Jays, Rodrigo Lopez (P) free agent to Phillies, Paul Maholm (P) trade to Braves, Miguel Socolovich (P) unsigned free agent, Chris Volstad (P) waiver claim by Royals, Randy Wells (P) free agent to Rangers, Tony Campana (OF) trade to Diamondbacks, Reed Johnson (OF) trade to Braves, Bryan LaHair (UT) unsigned free agent, Anthony Recker (UT) waiver claim by Mets, Blake DeWitt (3B) free agents to Braves, Adrian Cardenas (IF)unsigned free agent , Joe Mather (P) ,free agent to Phillies.
What to expect:
Cubs fans can be excited for the future but this season is not likely going to be a good one. The team is definitely moving in the right direction and building the team from the ground up and are timing their climb to the top while the Cardinals and Brewers are starting to lose some of the players that helped them become the leaders in the division. The Cubs are probably a few years away from competing but they are certainly back on the right track.
Why should you root for these guys?:
The Cubs have won two World Series in their history and had one of the best teams not to win a World Series when they lost to their crosstown rivals, the White Sox. All three of those seasons happened between 1906-1908. Since then the Cubs have lost the World Series in 1910, 1918, 1931, 1932, 1935, 1938 and 1945. They have not been back since. Winning a World Series for Cubs fans would be similar to the Red Sox ending their 80+ year drought.
Why might this season not turn out like Cubs fans want?:
The Cubs are building a team but they still have some serious holes in their lineup, most notably in Centerfield, Catcher and depth of the pitching rotation. If they make a few smart moves this season and upgrade at those key positions they will go a long way to getting into the playoff race.
Don't expect too much from him:
Jeff Smardzija is officially a losing pitcher. His career record is 21-22. Smardzija is much better than his record shows but his losses have been a product of the weak lineup that has been behind him. As the Cubs improve expect his record to improve with it. Just don't expect him to be a 20 game winner just yet.
Expect great things from:
Darwin Barney won a Gold Glove last year though few would have guessed he was that good. Barney quietly won the award and improved at the plate in the same season. Barney will be a big part of the Cubs future and could develop into their marquee player.
Time for Him to Step Up:
Matt Garza helped the Rays become a consistent playoff contender in the American League. Since joining the Cubs he has finished with a 10-10 record in 2011 and 5-7 in 2012. The Cubs signed Garza to be their ace but he has struggled adjusting to the National League. If the Cubs expect to make a surprise run at the playoffs Garza will need to be what the Cubs expected.
Is this is last chance?:
Alfonso Soriano was a big star in New York when the Yankees won the 2000 World Series. He was looked at as the future organization. He was happy in New York. Then came February of 2004 when the Yankees saw an opportunity to get Alex Rodriguez and Soriano was traded to the Rangers. He was not happy about the trade and after two years got himself moved to a worse situation: the Nationals. Not only was he sent to a team that was not competitive, he was told he was no longer an infielder, he was now a Leftfielder and he was not happy. He got his opportunity to choose his next stop, Chicago, but he has not lived up to expectations and has long been part of trade rumors. Soriano will need to put up some tremendous numbers if he wants to stick around to see the Cubs rebuilding through to the final success.
Prediction:
4th Place in NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers
83-79 (3rd Place in NL Central)
Who's new?*:
Burke Badenhop (P) free agent from Rays, Nick Bucci (P) free agent from minors, Hiram Burgos (P) promoted from minors, Miguel De Los Santos (P) promoted from minors, Michael Gonzalez (P) free agent from Nationals, Tom Gorzelany (P) free agent from Nationals , Johnny Hellweg (P) promoted from minors , Santo Manzanillo (P) promoted from minors, Michael Olmstead (P) promoted from minors, Ariel Pena (P) promoted from minors, Jesus Sanchez (P) promoted from minors, Scooter Gennett (2B) promoted from minors , Khristopher Davis (OF) promoted from minors, Kaleb Gindi (OF) promote from minors, Josh Prince (OF) promoted from minors.
Who left?*:
Vinnie Chulk (P) unsigned free agent, Tim Dillard (P) unsigned free agent, Livan Hernandez (P) unsigned free agent, Shaun Marcum (P) free agent to Mets, Mike McClendon (P) free agent to Rockies, Manny Parra (P) free agent to Reds, Juan Perez (P) free agent to Blue Jays, Francisco Rodriguez (P)unsigned free agent , Jose Veras (P) free agent to Astros, Yorvit Torrealba (C) free agent to Rockies , Travis Ishikawa (1B) free agent to Orioles, Edwin Maysonet (IF) free agent to Cubs, Nyjer Morgan (OF) unsigned free agent.
What to expect:
The Brewers are clearly moving backwards. The team is continuously losing strong players, they lost Shawn Marcum, Manny Parra and Nyjer Morgan this season and lost Prince Fielder last off season while trading Zack Greinke in mid season. Though they lost all these players they have not replaced them with quality players. Ryan Braun is still a star but is under even more scrutiny than he was last season. The pitching rotation is thin and John Axford has struggled. The Brewers have been competitive since 2007 but this year the bottom may fall out.
Why should you root for these guys?:
The Brewers have had a tough existence. They began as the Seattle Pilots for one season then moved to Milwaukee. They came into existence at the beginning of division play and were dumped into a division with dominant Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles and Tigers teams. When the league moved to a three division format the Brewers were put in a division with strong Indians and White Sox teams. When the league expanded to include Tampa Bay and Arizona the Brewers were moved to a division with strong Cardinals, Reds, Cubs and Astros teams. They were finally able to build a strong team on a budget but have been unable to retain the key components, who got big contracts elsewhere. The city of Milwaukee has always supported the team but have not always gotten their money's worth in return. It would be nice to see the faith of the fans rewarded.
Why might this season not turn out like Brewers fans want?:
This team is clearly on the decline. The key pieces have started to move on and are not being replaced. The team will need to rebuild the minor league system and hope to be able to do it quickly.
Don't expect too much from him:
Ryan Braun has been the Brewers marquee player during their current run of success and when his career is over he will be spoken of along with the greats of Brewers history like Yount, Molitor, Gantner and Higuera. Braun was the MVP in 2011 based on leading the Brewers to the division title, although Matt Kemp had near triple crown numbers. In the offsesaon between 2011 and 2012 it was revealed that Braun tested positive for PED's although he won an appeal on a technicality. His numbers in 2012 were actually better than his 2011 season. Although his average dropped from .332 to .319 his Home Runs increased from 33 to 41, his hits increased from 187 to 191 and his RBI increased by 1. Braun does not have the protection in the lineup that he has had over the past few years an the Brewers do not seem to be interested (or capable) of spending the money to get him help. Other than Aramis Ramirez there is little help available. You can expect Braun to be an All Star but don't expect his numbers to go up again or for Braun to be an MVP candidate.
Expect great things from:
Aramis Ramirez has quietly been one of the best third basemen in the league for over a decade. He had one of the best years of his great career in 2012 but did not make the All Star team (4 other third basemen did). Ramirez hit .300, scored 92 runs (eight more than 2011), drove in 105 (12 more than 2011), 50 doubles (15 more than 2011) and 27 HR (1 more than 2011). Ramirez entered the league in 1998 (2000 as a full time player) but appears to be a long way for being done with his career.
Time for him to step up:
Marco Estrada is a young pitcher with a ton of talent. As the Brewers entered the 2012 season their pitching staff appeared to be a strength with Greinke, Marcum, Gallardo and Estrada as their four main starters. Estrada struggled and ended with a 5-7 record, though a respectable 3.67 ERA (although he allowed 18 HR in 138 1/3 Innings). With Marcum in New York and Greinke in LA, Estrada is now the number two pitcher in the rotation. If the Brewers want to avoid falling to the bottom they will need a lot of help from their pitching staff, starting with Estrada.
Is this his last chance?:
John Axford had a rough 2012. He saved 35 games but he also had 9 blown saves. Closers do not usually last more than a few seasons in this league (closers like Rivera and Trevor Hoffman can be considered freaks in their lines of business) because it is such a difficult job to do. The margin of error for a relief pitcher is so minuscule, and the attention given to any failure is so large, that it is nearly impossible to remain a closer for more than a few years. With a weaker starting rotation and less offensive weapons, Axford may need to wait longer in between save opportunities. Axford will need to make the most of his save opportunities if he wants to remain the closer.
Prediction:
5th Place in NL Central
*-All roster changes are based on active rosters at the end of 2012 and active rosters as of the week of 3/3. Teams may have non-roster invitees in camp who are not listed in the "Who's New?" category.
feels good to read your blog again.
ReplyDeleteThat was a nice piece, putting the mediocrity of the central division in perspective. Had no idea the division was so bad in the playoffs.
One of my all time favorite names ' Stolmy Pimentel". saw him play in the Eastern League.
It is something to see that almost the entire Cubs rotation are free agents.
Does the addition of Kyle Loshe change your prediction for the Brewers?
TJD
No, the addition of Lohse does not change my picks for this division, nor does the Cardinals' loss of Motte. Lohse had a career year last season and will be facing teams he is used to facing from his time in St.Louis, however, he has not been in the Spring Training camp to train prperly. I don't think Milwaukee is deep enough to challenge in this division. This weeks post will be an NL Central preview and check back in a few weeks for a recap/updaate of the predictions.
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