2015 National League Central Preview

***The Division Preview that follows is not betting advice in any way shape or form.  Please do not bet any money based in any part on these predictions.***

Don't forget to check out the National League East Preview and check back next week for the National League West Preview

Cardinals Logo Courtesy of Sports Logs.net

St. Louis Cardinals

Who's New:  

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

Dean Anna, IF (Free Agent from Pirates)
Mark Reynolds, 1B (Free Agent from Brewers)

OUTFIELDERS

Jason Heyward, OF (Trade from Braves)

STARTING PITCHERS
Carlos Villanueva, P (Free Agent from Cubs)

RELIEF PITCHERS
Miguel Socolovich, RP (Free Agent from Mets)
Matt Belisle, RP (Free Agent from Rockies)

Who Left?: 

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

Audry Perez, C (Free Agent to Rockies)
Daniel Descalso, 2B (Free Agent to Rockies)
A.J. Pierszynski, C (Free Agent to Braves)
Mark Ellis, 2B (Unsigned Free Agent)
OUTFIELDERS
Shane Robinson, OF (Free Agent to Twins)
Jermaine Curtis, OF (Free Agent to Reds)
STARTING PITCHERS
Jorge Rondon, P (Waiver Claim by Rockies)
Justin Masterson, P (Free Agent to Red Sox)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Eric Fonataro, RP (Free Agent to Nationals)
Pat Neshek, RP (Free Agent to Astros)
Jason Motte, RP (Free Agent to Cubs)
David Aardsma, RP (Free Agent to Dodgers)
Winter Headlines:  
Despite several key losses, Cardinals remain clear favorite in Central.
What to Expect?:
The Cardinals organization seems to have this game figured out.  Their minor league system continues to produce key players and they make smart trades and signings.  They don't always have big names but they know how to build a team that gets the most out of their pieces.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
This Cardinals run of success is something special.  This run started in 2000 when the Cardinals finished 1st.  Since then the team has only missed the playoffs three times.  Four times they have reached the NLCS only to come up short. Twice they have reached the World Series and lost and twice they have won it all.  For an organization boasting a history with Frankie Frisch, Rogers Hornsby, Dizzy Dean, Stan Musial, Enos Slaughter, Johnny Mize, Bob Gibson, Lou Brock and Ozzie Smith (among a million others) it is amazing to say that this may be one of the best times of their history.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Cardinals Fans Want?:
The Cardinals are clearly the favorite in this division but pitching depth, something they have used to their advantage in other years, may be a bit thin this year.  Wainwright is spectacular every year and Lance Lynn has started his career strong but there is a significant drop off after the top 2.  John Lackey's age should be a cause for concern and the rest of the rotation is unproven.  It would seem they have some questions about the rotation and pitching depth themselves based on the fact that they traded for Lackey and Masterson at the trade deadline last year.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
John Lackey has had a very good career but age and injuries have caught up to him.  Although he was 11-7 with Boston when he was traded to St.Louis his ERA was high and he only went 3-3 in St. Louis.  Lackey is still a strong pitcher but his best days are behind him.
Expect Great Things From:
Jason Heyward is one of the most talented and hard working players in the game, although his last few years in Atlanta were not up to his normal production levels.  Part of that can be traced to a horrific at bat in 2013 where he was hit in the face with a pitch that shattered both sides of his jaw but that does not account for all of the problems.  A new start in St.Louis will be just what he needs.  Expect Heyward to regain his All Star form.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Peter Bourjos had huge potential and huge expectations when he came to the majors in Anaheim.  An outfield of Bourjos-Trout-Hunter was supposed to be a winning combination for the Angels but a lack of production led to Bourjos being sent to St.Louis in exchange for David Freese.  Bourjos has now fallen to a bench role.
Prediction: 1st in NL Central

Pirates Logo Courtesy of Sports Logos.net

Pittsburgh Pirates:

Who's New: 

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

Francisco Cervelli, C (Trade from Yankees)
Jake Elmore, SS (Free Agent from Reds)
Steve Lombardozzi, 2B (Trade from Orioles)

OUTFIELDERS

Corey Hart, OF (Free Agent from Mariners)
STARTING PITCHERS
A.J. Burnett, SP (Free Agent from Phillies)
Clayton Richard, SP (Free Agent from Diamondbacks)
Chris Volstad, SP (Free Agent from Angels)
Charlie Leesman, SP (Free Agent from White Sox)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Brad Lincoln, RP (Free Agent from Phillies)
Blake Wood, RP (Free Agent from Royals)
Rob Scahill, RP (Trade from Rockies)
Josh Stinson, RP (Free Agent from Orioles)
Josh Lindbaum, RP (Waiver Claim from Athletics)
Antonio Bastardo, RP (Trade from Phillies)
Radhames Liz, RP (Free Agent from Blue Jays)
Arquimedes Caminaro, RP (Free Agent from Marlins)

Who Left:

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

Russell Martin, C (Free Agent to Blue Jays)
Chase D'Arnaud, SS (Free Agent to Phillies)
Dean Anna, IF (Free Agent to Cardinals)
Ike Davis, IF (Trade to Athletics)
Clint Barmes, IF (Free Agent to Padres)
Thomas Field, IF (Free Agent to Rangers)
Chris McGuiness, 1B (Free Agent to Phillies)
Omir Santos, C (Free Agent to Nationals)
Michael Martinez, IF (Free Agent to Indians)
Jake Elmore, 1B (Free agent to Rays)
Gaby Sanchez, 1B (Unsigned Free Agent)

OUTFIELDERS

None
STARTING PITCHERS
Edinson Volquez, SP (Free Agent to Royals)
Adam Wilk, SP (Free Agent from Angels)
Wandy Rodriguez, SP (Free Agent to Braves)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Justin Wilson, RP (Trade to Yankees)
Ernesto Frieri, RP (Free Agent to Rays)
Chaz Roe, RP (Free Agent to Orioles)
Preston Guillemet, P (Free Agent to Blue Jays)
Jeanmar Gomez, RP (Free Agent to Phillies)
John Axford, RP (Free Agent to Rockies)
Vin Mazaro, RP (Free Agent to   Marlins)
Rafael Perez, RP (Free Agent to Mariners)
Winter Headlines: 
Who's the ace?
What to Expect?:
Pirates fans have been happy with the team's improvement over the last 5 years, however, the team may take a big step back this season.  There is no clear ace on the team and the loss of Russell Martin to lead the staff could cause a big drop off in a very competitive division.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
The Pirates have built this team fom the ground up.  The key pieces of this team have all come through the minor league system.  In an offseason where we have seen Atlanta and Oakland dismantle competitive teams and scatter their pieces all over the league it would be nice to see a team that has grown together, win together.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Pirates Fans Want?:
Pitching.  The Pirates starting rotation is a big question for this team.  They somehow got by last year with Edinson Volquez and Gerrit Cole but Volquez is gone and Cole is probably not a true ace, at least not yet.  They resigned Burnett but the magic Burnett carried with him a few years ago seems to be gone.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Francisco Cervelli is a decent Catcher.  He is not an All Star and he is not Russell Martin.  Martin had a way of controlling the game behind the plate and getting the pitchers to follow his lead.  Cervelli does not have that reputation.
Expect Great Things From:
Andrew McCutcheon is one of the best players in this league.  If you are trying to show a non fan why this game is so great show them McCutcheon.  He is a special player and watching him play with passion is a great experience.
Is This His Last Chance?:
A.J. Burnett has come back for a second tour of the Steel City.  In his first trip through the city he was the ace of the staff and led the team to their first playoff appearance since 1992.  At 8-18 with an ERA of 4.59 with the Phillies last year, Burnett will need some magic to help the Pirates back to the post season.
Prediction: 2nd in NL Central

Chicago Cubs Logo Courtesy of Sports Logos.net

Chicago Cubs

Who's New: 

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

Tom LaStella, IF (Trade from Braves)
Jonathan Herrera, IF (Free Agent from Red Sox)
Miguel Montero, C (Trade from Diamondbacks)
David Ross, C (Free Agent from Red Sox)
Taylor Teagarden, C (Free Agent from Mets)
OUTFIELDERS
Adron Chambers, OF (Free Agent from Blue Jays)
Chris Denorfia, OF (Free Agent from Mariners)
Mike Baxter, OF (Free Agent from Dodgers)
Dexter Fowler,OF (Trade from Astros)
STARTING PITCHERS
Jason Hammel, SP (Free Agent from Athletics)
John Lester, SP (Free Agent from Athletics)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Donn Roach, RP (Waiver Claim from Padres)
Jason Motte, RP (Free Agent from Cardinals)
Mike Kickham, RP (Waiver Claim from Giants)
Francisley Bueno, RP (Free Agent from Royals)
Jorge DeLeon, RP (Free Agent from Athletics)
German Gonzalez, RP (Waiver Claim from Rangers)

Who Left: 

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

 Eli Whiteside, C (Free Agent to Braves)
Luis Valbuena, 3B (Trade to Astros)
John Baker, C (Free Agent to Mariners)
Lars Anderson, 1B (Free Agent to Dodgers)
Josh Vitters, IF (Free Agent to Rockies)
OUTFIELDERS
Justin Ruggiano, OF (Trade to Mariners)
Ryan Kalish, OF (Free Agent to Blue Jays)
STARTING PITCHERS
None
RELIEF PITCHERS
Arodys Vizcaino, RP (Traded to Braves)
Kyuji Fujikawa, RP (Free Agent to Rangers)
Wesley Wright, RP (Free Agent to Orioles)
Alberto Cabrera, RP (Free Agent to Tigers)
Dan Straily, RP (Trade to Astros)
Carlos Villanueva, RP (Free Agent to Cardinals)
Marcos Mateo, RP (Free Agent to Padres)
Winter Headlines:
The ripening products of the Farm System.
What to Expect?:
Cubs fans should be excited.  Theo Epstein has this team moving in the right direction and they should be right in the thick of this competitive division.  The Farm System is producing high expectations and the arrival of Joe Maddon from the Rays has led to big excitement in the Windy City.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
For the obvious reason.  It has been over 100 years since the team won a World Series.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Cubs Fans Want?:
That all depends on your expectations.  If you are expecting an immediate World Series with the arrival of Dexter Fowler, John Lester and Maddon you will be disappointed.  If you are expecting an improved, competitive team laying the ground work for a climb to the post season then you should be satisfied.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
John Lester is a very good pitcher and was one of the top free agents in a very good class of free agent pitchers.  You can expect him to be the ace of this staff and to eat a lot of innings but don't expect a Cy Young from him just yet.
Expect Great Things From:
Joe Maddon is a terrific manager and his style is made for a situation like the Cubs.  In Tampa he was able to work with a small budget and develop great talent.  When that talent hit free agency he was able to find great replacements and continue his winning ways.  For a young team like the Cubs it could be a match made in heaven.
Is This His Last Chance?:
This team is too stocked with young talent to be considered anyone's last chance.  The young kids on this team added with Maddon's winning attitude could make this team fun to watch.
Prediction: 3rd place in NL Central

Cincinnati Reds Logo Courtesy of Sports Logos,net

Cincinnati Reds:

Who's New: 

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

Josh Satin, 1B (Free Agent from Mets)
Ivan de Jesus, IF (Free Agent from Red Sox)
Kyle Skipworth, C (Free Agent from Marlins)
Irving Falu, IF (Free Agent from Brewers)
Eugenio Suarez, SS (Trade from Reds)

OUTFIELDERS

Brennan Boesch, OF (Free Agent from Angels)
Marlon Byrd, OF (Trade from Phillies)
Jermaine Curtis, OF (Free Agent from Cardinals)
Chris Dominguez, OF (Free Agent from Giants)
STARTING PITCHERS
Anthony DeScalfani, SP (Trade from Marlins)
Paul Maholm, SP (Free Agent from Dodgers)
Donovan Hand, SP (Free Agent from Brewers)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Jose Cisneros, RP (Free Agent from Astros)
Nate Adcock, RP (Free Agent fom Rangers)
Wilmer Font, RP (Free Agent from Rangers)
Jose De La Torre, RP (Free Agent from Brewers)
Burke Badenhop, RP (Free Agent from Red Sox)
Kevin Gregg, RP (Free agent from Marlins)

Who Left: 

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

Jake Elmore, IF (Free Agent to Pirates)
Ramon Santiago, IF (Free Agent to Blue Jays)
Jack Hanahan, IF (Unsigned Free Agent)
OUTFIELDERS
Chris Heisey, OF (Trade to Dodgers)
Ryan Ludwick, OF (Free Agent to Rangers)
STARTING PITCHERS
Brett Marshall (Free Agent to Rockies)
Mat Latos, SP (Trade to Marlins)
Alfredo Simon, SP (Trade to Tigers)
Carlos Marmol, SP (Unsigned Free Agent)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Curtis Partch, RP (Free Agent to Giants)
Logan Ondrusek, RP (Free Agent to Japan)
Ryan Rowland Smith (Unsigned Free Agent)
Trevor Bell, RP (Unsigned Free Agent)
Winter Headlines: 
With age and injuries, questions arise about how long the window will stay open.
What to Expect?:
It is a loaded question and it depends on a few things.  First, how healthy are Phillips, Votto and Cueto?  If they can stay healthy this team can be a serious force in the National League and could challenge for first in a very close division.  If they have the same issues they have suffered through the last two years the team may struggle.  Second, how good is Marlon Byrd?  We know he can be good because we saw it after the trade deadline in Pittsburgh a few years ago.  We also know he can be just average as we saw with the Mets and Phillies.  Finally, how important was Mat Latos?  Not having the 1-2 punch of Cueto-Latos could be a big problem.  Homer Bailey is a very good number 2 starter but he missed the las few weeks of last season and culd miss part of the firs month.  After Cueto-Bailey there is a significant drop off in quality.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
In 2012 this team was one game away from advancing to the National League Championship Series.  That year they had overcome some inuries and a late season stroke suffered by Dusty Baker to finish the season with the best record in baseball.  They followed that up with a loss to Pittsburgh in the Wild Card round and replaced Baker.  This group of Cueto-Phillips-Votto-Bruce have worked hard to help give this franchise a rebirth.  It would be nice to see this group hoist a trophy together.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Reds Fans Want?:
We already talked about the question of the health and loss of Latos but more than that, the other teams in this division are strong and the Cubs have improved.  With 5 teams about equally matched someone has to finish last and it seems as though the Cubs are determined not to be the doormat anymore.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Joey Votto had his worst season as a professional in 2014.  Injuries cut his playing time to just 62 games and his average dropped to .255.  As the injuries start to catch up to him Votto will need to display his leadership and build his clubhouse presence but his numbers on the field may fall a bit.
Expect Great Things From:
At 20-9 and 2.25 Johnny Cueto had his best year as a pro and if it were not for a historic year from Clayton Kershaw he would have won the Cy Young.  Cueto is the clear ace of this staff and any success the Reds hope for will start with Cueto.
Prediction:4th in NL Central

Milwaukee Brewers Logo Courtesy of Sports Logos.net

Milwaukee Brewers

Who's New: 

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

Adam Lind, 1B (Trade from Blue Jays)
Luis Sardinas, IF (Trade from Rangers)
OUTFIELDERS
Bryan Peterson, OF (Free Agent from Rangers)
STARTING PITCHERS

RELIEF PITCHERS
John Ely, RP (Free Agent from Red Sox)
Neal Cotts, RP (Free Agent from Rangers)
Chris LeRoux, RP (Free Agent from Yankees)
Chris Perez, RP (Free Agent from Dodgers)
Corey Knebel, RP (Trade from Rangers
Josh Roenicke, RP (Free Agent from Rockies)
David Herndon, RP (Free Agent from Phillies)

Who Left:  

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

Matt Pagnozzi, C (Free Agent to Diamondbacks)
Irving Falu, IF (Free Agent to Reds)
Mark Reynolds, 1B (Free Agent to Cardinals)
Eugenio Velez, IF (Free Agent to Rays)
Jeff Bianchi, IF (Free Agent to Red Sox)
Rickie Weeks, IF (Free Agent to Mariners)
Lyle Overbay, 1B (Unassigned Free Agent)

OUTFIELDERS

Caleb Gindl, OF (Free Agent to Blue Jays)

STARTING PITCHERS

Zach Duke, SP (Free Agent to White Sox)
Marco Estrada, SP (Trade to Blue Jays)
Tom Gorzelanny, SP (Free Agent to Tigers)
Donovan Hand, SP (Free Agent to Reds)
Yovanny Gallardo, SP (Trade to Rangers)
Billy Buckner, SP (Unsigned Free Agent)

RELIEF PITCHERS

Jose De la Torres, RP (Free Agent to Reds)
Francisco Rodriguez, RP (Unsigned Free Agent)
Winter Headlines: 
In the fight or time to rebuild?
What to Expect?:
With this division being as competitive as ever it is hard to say where the Brewers will finish.  Last year they appeared to be on the decline heading into the Spring but amazing years by Segura, Gomez and Lucroy kept them in the race until the end of the year.  With improvement by the Cubs but fall off from the Reds and Pirates the Brewers could still stay in the fight.  In reality though, the lack of pitching depth, especially in the bullpen, will likely lead to a last place finish.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
The general perception of the organization (to non-fans and non-students of the game) is that of a losing organization.  In reality this is a proud organization with Hall of Famers, MVP's and a usually competitive history.  For a die-hard fan base it would be nice to see Milwaukee get the respect it deserves.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Brewers Fans Want?:
This division is very close from top to bottom and the Cubs are no longer the door mat of the league.  The Brewers still have Garza and Lohse at the top of the rotation but they lost Gallardo and Estrada in the offseason.  The bullpen is shaky and Lucroy suffered a serious injury that will keep him out for some time.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Matt Garza has been a big name in baseball since he emerged with the Rays in their playoff years.  He was a big name in a trade to the Cubs.  That was followed by a big hype over a trade to the Rangers in 2012. He then became a big name free agent in 2014.  The results since he had his big year in 2010 have not been great.  In fact, despite his reputation as a top level ace, Garza is only 75-75 over his career.  That included 4-5 in his stint with the Rangers and 8-8 in his year with the Brewers.  Garza is of course a very good pitcher and will help the Brewers in any chance they have at the post season but he is not an ace.
Expect Great Things From:
Jean Segura came to the Brewers in the Zack Grienke trade with the Angels a few years ago and it was a steal for the Brewers.  Jean Segura is one of the best hitting short stops in the NL and is superb defensively.  Expect an All Star year from him.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Johnathon Broxton was a dominant closer for the Dodgers in their 2008-2009 runs to the playoffs but a series changing double to Jimmy Rollins in 2009 and a complete collapse in 2010 led to his departure from Los Angeles.  He has bounced around the league with varying levels of success.  The Brewers are asking him to regain his 2008 form but it may be too late.
Prediction:5th in NL Central

*-Please be aware that these predictions are based on the rosters as set in the middle of February.  There are still several key free agents unsigned which could alter these previews.  Also, injuries during spring training could alter my outlook.  Check back next week for the NL West Preview and continue following to see my final predictions at the start of the season.

TRIVIA QUESTION:

Adam Wainwright led the National League in wins in both 2013 and 2009.  Before Wainwright, when was the last time a National League Central Pitcher led the league in wins?

Answer to Last Week's Question:

Since the league moved to the three division format, a National league East player has led the league in Home Runs four times (including Stanton in 2014.  The first to do so was Jim Thome (47) with Philadelphia in 2003.  Not until Ryan Howard (58) in 2006 did anyone else from the east lead the league.  Howard did it again in 2008 with 48. Between 2008 and 2014 no one from the East led the league in Home Runs.

2014 National League Central Preview

***The Division Preview that follows is not betting advice in any way shape or form.  Please do not bet any money based in any part on these predictions.***

Don't forget to check out the American League East, American League Central, and American League West  and National League East Previews and check back next week for the National League West Preview

Cincinnati Reds Logo Courtesy of Sports Logos,net

Cincinnati Reds:

Who's New: 

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

Brayan Pena (C) free agent from Tigers,

Skip Schumacher (IF) free agent from Dodgers,
Bryan Anderson (C) free agent from White Sox
Chris Nelson (3B) free agent from Angels
Ramon Santiago (IF) free agent from Tigers

OUTFIELDERS

Jason Bourgeois (OF) free agent from Rays,
Neil Thomas (OF) free agent from Cubs
Roger Berardina (OF) free agent from Phillies
STARTING PITCHERS
David Holmberg (SP) trade from Diamondbacks,
Chien Ming Wang (SP) free agent from Blue Jays
Jeff Francis (SP) free agent from Rockies
RELIEF PITCHERS

Who Left: 

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

Ryan Hannigan (C) trade to Rays,
Cesar Izturis (SS) free agent to Astros
OUTFIELDERS
Shin Soo Choo (OF) to Rangers,
Xavier Paul (OF) free agent to Orioles
Derrick Robinson (OF) unsinged free agent
STARTING PITCHERS
Greg Reynolds (SP) free agent to Japan
Bronson Arroyo (SP) free agent to Diamondbacks
RELIEF PITCHERS
Zach Duke (RP) free agent to Brewers
Nick Masset (RP) free agent to Rockies
Winter Headlines: 
Dusty hits the road but is Price right?
What to Expect?:
Nothing against Brian Price but he's no Dusty Baker, at least not yet.  After a first round exit this year the Reds decided it was time to move on without Dusty. It may end up being one of the worst decisions this leadership group has ever made. That being said, the core group of Votto, Phillips, Bruce and Frazier are still there and the rotation looks solid with Cueto, Latos, Bailey and Leake meaning the Reds are still probably the most talented team in this division.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
Last year I predicted the Reds would win it all.  Things started off badly from the beginning.  They lost their clean up hitter on opening day.  Their ace went down and missed most of the year.  Their second ace pitched fantastically but somehow couldn't win.  The Reds deserve some good luck for once.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Reds Fans Want?:
The Reds lost their lead off hitter Choo to free agency and have done nothing to replace him.  Theoretically Billy Hamilton will be the lead off hitter but there are questions of his ability to play at the Major League level.  Add to that the change of manager and things in Cincinnati are still questionable.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Billy Hamilton set a record for stolen bases in the minor leagues a few years ago.  The question is how will he do at the next level.  He did not have much chance to show his talent last year but with Choo gone Hamilton will get his chance to show what he can do.
Expect Great Things From:
Brandon Phillips has developed into one of the best players in the league but for some reason his name came up in trade rumors over the off season.  In 2012 when Joey Votto went out for an extended period it was Phillips that stepped up.  When the team started slowly in 2013 Phillips got the team back on track.  Expect Phillips to do what he always does: perform at a high level.
Prediction:1st in NL Central

Cardinals Logo Courtesy of Sports Logs.net

St. Louis Cardinals

Who's New:  

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

Jhonny Peralta (SS) free agent from Tigers,

Mark Ellis (2B) free agent from Dodgers,

OUTFIELDERS

Peter Bourjos (OF) trade from Angels, 

STARTING PITCHERS

RELIEF PITCHERS
Pat Nesheck (RP) free agent from Athletics

Who Left?: 

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

David Freese (3b) trade to Angels,
Brock Peterson (1B) free agent to Nationals
Ty Wigginton (IF) free agent to Marlins
Rob Johnson (C) free agent to Padres
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Betran (OF) free agent to Yankees,
Adron Chambers (OF) free agent to Astros
STARTING PITCHERS
Jake Westbrook (SP) unsigned free agent
RELIEF PITCHERS
Fernando Salas (RP) trade to Angels,
Edward Mujica (RP) free agent to Red Sox,
John Axford (RP) free agent to Indians, Brock Peterson (1B) free agent to Nationals
Winter Headlines:  
Beltran and Freese gone.  Will the pitching hold up?
What to Expect?:
For the last few years Cardinals fans have dealt with the loss of major stars and expected the worst.  They have been pleasantly surprised with the results.  This year they lost Beltran, Freese and Mujica and done little to replace them.  Still, with the success that Mike Matheny has had in filling holes and the success of the organization overall it is hard to count this team out.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
The Cardinals organization has quietly built itself into the best organization in baseball.  Despite the loss of Pujols, Carpenter, Beltran and Freese, the Cardinals still seem to find ways to win.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Cardinals Fans Want?:
The Cardinals continue to lose big names without replacing them.  They have been able to find players in a number of ways, mostly by listening to the smart baseball minds in the organization.  Even the best baseball minds make mistakes.  At what point will the baseball trust in St.Louis fail?
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Matt Holliday is generally considered a super star by many baseball experts but there are numerous holes in his game.  He is capable of great things but at times seems to have mental lapses that lead to mistakes at the worst possible time.  Expect Holliday to perform well but don't look for him to fill the holes left by the loss of Furcal, Beltran and Freese.
Expect Great Things From:
Yadier Molina is sometimes overlooked in the Cardinals current run.  In 2006 when the Cardinals won their first World Series since 1982, Molina hit the game winning Home Run to propel them to the World Series.  When they pushed to another title in 2011 Molina was the quiet leader.  Molina always seems to be at the center of the good things that happen in St. Louis.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Adam Wainwright missed all of the 2011 season as the Cardinals won the World Series.  He bounced back to a 14-13 season in 2012 and went 19-9 in 2013 while pitching well over 200 innings.  Wainwright is clearly a great pitcher but how many innings can an arm that missed an entire season just a few short years ago take?
Prediction: 2nd in NL East. Wild Card

Milwaukee Brewers Logo Courtesy of Sports Logos.net

Milwaukee Brewers

Who's New: 

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

Irving Falu (IF) free agent from Royals,
Matt Pagnozzi (C) free agent from Astros,
Lyle Overbay (1B) free agent from Yankees
Mark Reynolds (3B) free agent from Yankees
OUTFIELDERS
STARTING PITCHERS
Matt Garza (SP) free agent from Rangers
Wil Smith (SP) trade from Royals,
RELIEF PITCHERS
Zach Duke (RP) free agent from Reds
Francisco Rodriguez (RP) free agent from Orioles

Who Left:  

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

Blake Lali (1B) free agent to Diamondbacks,
Alex Gonzalez (IF) free agent to Orioles
Yuniesky Betancourt (IF) unsigned free agent

OUTFIELDERS

 Norichiki Aoka (OF) trade to Royals,

Corey Hart (OF) free agent to Mariners

STARTING PITCHERS

Chris Narveson (SP) free agent from Japan

Aaron Laffey (SP) free agent to Orioles

RELIEF PITCHERS

Burke Badenhop (RP) trade to Red Sox,
Michael Gonzales (RP) free agent to Nationals
Winter Headlines: Braun's return
What to Expect?:
The Brewers had a nice run over the last few years but 2013 was a struggle.  The team fell off severely as they dealt with the Ryan Braun situation.  They have now lost Corey Hart who was a big piece of the Brewers recent success.  They are in a strong division but for some reason I can't count them out of playoff contention just yet.  With players like Jean Segura, Carlos Gomez and Aramis Ramirez this team could be very dangerous.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
The Brewers team had some truly terrible years before this current run of success.  All they have to show for this recent history is two failed playoff appearances.  The Brewers are on the brink of heading for another dark period and it would be nice to see them have some more success before the decline.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Brewers Fans Want?:
The Brewers have lost most of the key players of their playoff runs and the one remaining key piece is in disgrace.  If Braun fails and the pitching does not perform up to their potential it could take quite some time before the Brewers are able to compete again.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Ryan Braun left the team last year in disgrace.  He will return for the full year this year and will be a great player again.  Just don't expect him to win an MVP.
Expect Great Things From:
Jean Segura was a great surprise for the Brewers last year in a season of turmoil.  He was near the top of the league in batting for most of the year and was the one bright spot for the team.  Expect Segura to continue to improve.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Matt Garza was a big contributor to the Rays playoff runs before moving on the Cubs.  With the Cubs he did not have the success they had hoped for and he was moved to the Rangers at the deadline last year.  All the Rangers got was a 4-5 record and a high ERA.  Garza, when healthy, has the potential to be an ace but continuing arm problems could sideline his career.
Prediction:3rd in NL Central

Pirates Logo Courtesy of Sports Logos.net

Pittsburgh Pirates:

Who's New: 

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

Chris Stewart (C) trade from Yankees,

Travis Ishikawa (1B) free agent from White Sox, 

Michael Martinez (IF) free agent from Phillies, 

Travis McGuinness (1B) trade from Rangers
Omir Santos (C) free agent from Indians

OUTFIELDERS

 Jeff Decker (OF) trade from Padres,
STARTING PITCHERS
 Edinson Volquez (SP) free agent from Dodgers,
RELIEF PITCHERS
Cody Eppeley (RP) free agent from Twins,
Miles Mikolas (RP) trade from Padres,
Duke Welker (RP) trade from Twins,

Who Left:

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

Garrett Jones (1B) free agent to Marlins,

 Justin Mourneau (1B) free agent to Rockies,

John Buck (C) free agent to Mariners

Michael McKenry (C) free agent to Rockies
Brandon Inge (IF) released

OUTFIELDERS

Marlon Byrd (OF) free agent to Phillies,
Felix Pie (OF) unsigned free agent
STARTING PITCHERS
Kris Johnson (SP) traded to Twins,
A.J. Burnett (SP) free agent to Phillies
James McDonald (SP) free agent to Cubs
RELIEF PITCHERS
Mike Mikolas (RP) trade to Rangers
Kyle Farnsworth (RP) free agent to Mets
Chris Leroux (RP) free agent to Yankees
Jeff Karstens (RP) unsigned free agent
Winter Headlines: 
Follow up to playoffs?
Hurdle MOY, McCutcheon MVP
What to Expect?:
The Pirates had a magical year in 2013 but fell short.  They return an MVP and a Manager of the Year but the pitching staff remains a question.  Fortunately for Pittsburgh the Reds and Cardinals appear to have gotten weaker as well but the Brewers have improved.  The Pirates will need some upgrades in pitching but they should still be able to compete.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
The Pirates are one of the small market teams that have suffered while other free spending teams have thrived.  The Pirates reached the playoffs for the first time in over two decades and are looking to prove it was not just a fluke.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Pirates Fans Want?:
Last season was a magical season in Pittsburgh.  The problem is the pitching staff has taken a hit that it may not be able to recover from.  Losing A.J.Burnett, the leader of the staff, and replacing him with Edinson Volquez is not reassuring.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Wandy Rodriguez is a very good pitcher.  he proved that in Houston ofr several years and has had a strong year and a half in Pittsburgh.  Rodriguez is not an ace and will not be able to fill Burnett's shoes.
Expect Great Things From:
Andrew McCutcheon has been one of the unknown star players in the league for the last three years until he was finally recognized as the MVP last year.  McCutcheon should continue to get better and will hopefully be the next great player in the Pirates long history joining the names of Wagner, Waner, Clemente and Bonds.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Edinson Volquez had a great start to his career in Cincinnati but the last few years have been a struggle. After a few difficult years in San Diego and a failed late season stint with the Dodgers, Volquez is taking a shot at helping the Pirates.  If he fails in Pittsburgh he may not get another shot.
Prediction: 4th in NL Central

Chicago Cubs Logo Courtesy of Sports Logos.net

Chicago Cubs

Who's New: 

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

George Kottras (C) trade from Royals,
John Baker (C) free agent from Dodgers,
Ryan Roberts (IF) free agent from Rays,
Chris Valaika (IF) trade from Marlins
Emilio Bonifacio (IF) free agent fromRoyals
OUTFIELDERS
Casper Wells (OF) free agent from Phillies,
Justin Ruggiano (OF) trade from Marlins,
Chris Coghlan (OF) free agent from Marlins
STARTING PITCHERS
Liam Hendricks (SP) waiver claim from Twins,
Jonathan Sanchez (SP) free agent from Dodgers
Jason Hammel (SP) free agent from Orioles
James McDonald (SP) free agent from Pirates
RELIEF PITCHERS
Chris Valaika (P) free agent from Marlins,
Wesley Wright (RP) free agent from Rays,
Jose Veras (RP) free agent from Tigers

Who Left: 

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

 J.C. Boscan (C) free agent to Dodgers,
Dioner Navarro (C) free agent to Blue Jays,
Cody Ranson (3B) released
OUTFIELDERS
Brian Bougosevic (OF) trade to Marlins,
Cole Gillespe (OF) free agent to Mariners,
Thomas Neal (OF) free agent to Reds
Dave Sappelt (OF) free agent to Phillies
Daniel Bard (OF) free agent to Rangers
STARTING PITCHERS
Scott Baker (SP) free agent to Mariners
RELIEF PITCHERS
Eduardo Sanchez (RP) free agent to Tigers,
Zach Putnam (RP) free agent toWhite sox,
Michael Bowden (RP) free agent to Japan
Henry Alberto Rodriguez (RP) free agent to Marlins
Daniel Bard (RP) free agent to Rangers
Matt Guerrier (RP) free agent to Twins
Kevin Gregg (RP) unsigned free agent
Winter Headlines:
The Cubs get a new mascot.
What to Expect?:
Open the Cubs website and you will see their new slogan: Committed.  The Cubs have started their rebuilding process and appear to have a five year plan in place.  The problem is that until they can see if that five year plan is working there may be some truly terrible teams.  They definitely have some potentially great players in Ruggiano, Barney, Castro, Rizzo and Samardzjia but it is not enough to compete now.  In fact, some of those pieces may be moved for minor leaguers to help facilitate the five year plan.  The slogan may mean they are committed to winning but if could also be a warning that they will be committed to the asylum if things don't go the way they planned.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
Being a cursed organization is one thing.  Not winning a World Series for over 100 years is more than just a curse.  There is no longer suffering organization in sports than the Chicago Cubs.  They not only haven't won since 1908, they have had very few close calls.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Cubs Fans Want?:
There is definitely talent on this team.  Most of the infield has great potential and there are a few veteran presences on the pitching staff that can help the team along.  The Cubs should be improved over last year's disappointment but don't expect them to challenge the top four in this division just yet.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Starlin Castro  had a great first two years in the league and fell off each of the last two.  Castro has the ability to become a star in this league and the organization is working with him to get the most out of his talent.  If the Cub five year plan is effective Castro will need to be part of it but don't expect him to emerge as a star just yet.
Expect Great Things From:
Anthony Rizzo hit 23 Home Runs last year and drove in 80 RBI.  Somehow he only hit .233 for the year and struck out 127 times.  If Rizzo is able to improve his patience at the plate and make better decisions expect Rizzo to become the Cubs' All Star Representative.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Edwin Jackson was expected to be a Dodgers ace when he first entered the league.  That didn't happen.  He moved on to the Rays, Tigers, White Sox, Diamondbacks,Cardinals, White Sox again, Nationals and now the Cubs.  At every stop he has impressed the fan bases with his ability.  Though he has never become the superstar that was expected by the Dodgers he has become a very good pitcher.  The problem with journeymen players is that they sometimes get a reputation for being expendale and at some point run out of suitors.  Will the Cubs be the last stop for Jackson?
Prediction: 5th place in NL Central

*-Please be aware that these predictions are based on the rosters as set in the middle of March.  There are still several key free agents unsigned which could alter these previews.  Also, injuries during spring training could alter my outlook.  Check back next week for the NL West Preview and continue following to see my final predictions at the start of the season.

TRIVIA QUESTIONS:

The Cubs won the National League in 1906, 1907, 1908 and 1910 during the Tinker, Evers and Chance years.  They have not been as consistently in contention since.  How many post season appearances have the Cubs made since they lost the 1910 World Series?

Answer to Last Week's Trivia Question:

The divisional format in 1969 with the East and West starting play that year.  Here are the Eastern Division Rookies of The Year since then:

Carl Morton (Expos)1970

John Matlack (Mets)1972

Bake  McBride (Cardinals) 1974

Andre Dawson (Expos)1977

Daryl Strawberry (Mets) 1983

Doc Gooden (Mets) 1984

Vince Coleman (Cardinals) 1985

Todd Worrell (Cardinals) 1986

Jerome Walton (Cubs) 1989

Scott Rolen (Phillies) 1997

Rafael Furcal (Braves) 2000

Dontrelle Willis (Marlins) 2003

Ryan Howard (Phillies) 2005

Hanley Ramirez (Marlins) 2007

Chris Coghlan (Marlins) 2009

Craig Kimbrel (Braves) 2011

Bryce Harper (Nationals) 2012

Jose Fernandez (Marlins) 2013

Forgiving Baseball's Scapegoats: Steve Bartman

Don't forget to check out the other articles in the "Forgiving Baseball's Scapegoats" Series: Fred Merkle, Hack Wilson, Johnny Pesky, Ralph Branca , Leon Durham, Donnie Moore, Bill Buckner and Mitch Williams

It must be a unique experience to root for the Cubs.  1908.  That was the pinnacle of Cubs fandom.  Of course the Cubs have a very proud tradition.  Tinker, Evers and Chance.  Three Finger Brown. Rogers Hornsby.  Charlie Root.  Ernie Banks. Billy Williams.  Ferguson Jenkins. Ron Santo.  Ryne Sandberg.  Andre Dawson.  Mark Grace.  Harry Carey.  The friendly confines of Wrigley Field.  With all of that, 1908 was still the top moment.  1908: When the Cubs won the second of their back to back World Series, when someone could honestly say "who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they needed to win" without being laughed out of town, that was 95 years before this.

Photo Courtesy of USA Today

The Cubs had not won a postseason series in 95 years.  When that happened:

• Mickey Mouse (1928), Bugs Bunny (1938) and the Flinstones (1959) were decades away.
• The first All Star Game (1933) was 25 years away.
• Jackie Robinson was 49 years from his debut
• Babe Ruth (1915) was seven years away from his debut.
• The Yankees would not win their first World Series for another 15 years (1923)
• Fenway Park would not exist for another four years and Wrigley Field for another six years (and wouldn't be the Cubs home for another two years after that).
• The American Professional Football Association (the NFL's ancient ancestor) was 12 years from the first game.
• The assassination of Archduke Ferdinand was 5 years away.
• The first use of the Designated Hitter was 65 years away.

They had reached the playoffs and the World Series several times but they just had not won.  This was the year.  All the years of hearing "wait 'til next year" was now over.  They were a great team.  They had beaten the jinx by taking out the Atlanta Braves.  They had beaten great teams to get here and now they just had to beat these new kid Florida Marlins. 

It was fitting that they would advance to the World Series today. October 14. It was 95 years ago to the day that the Cubs of Tinker, Evers and Chance beat Ty Cobb's Tigers for the second straight (and last) Cubs World Series title.  This Cubs team took a 3 games to 1 series lead into game 5 but lost 4-0.  They now were in the 8th inning of Game 6 and they had a 3-0 lead with young Mark Prior on the mound and cruising through the Marlins lineup.  Florida had only 3 hits to this point.

Mike Mordecai flied out to start the inning and Cubs fans could start counting down.  5 more outs.  Then Juan Pierre doubled and Cubs fans were nervous. The Marlins had the big bats coming up with only one out and now everyone knew something would happen.  Something bad.  The city of Chicago was positive it was coming but the pressure of waiting to see what it would be was agonizing.

The next batter, Luis Castillo started an epic, 9 pitch at bat, although for Cubs fans this at bat is still going on.  On a 3-2 pitch Castillo lifted a fly ball down the left field line and left fielder Moises Alou tracked it right up to the stands.  He jumped and had this timed perfectly. 

It was just at the wall.  Anywhere between five and ten fans were sure they had a souvenir from the day the Cubs clinched their first trip to the World Series since 1945.  Alou was sure he had out number two. Then the ball bounced off the hands of a fan and Alou landed without the ball.  Alou went berserk.  He was furious.  Regardless of Alou's anger the at bat continued.  Just like the 1985 World Series, it isn't important what causes the chaos, it is how you react to the chaos that is important and the Cubs didn't react well.  Castillo finished the nine pitch at bat with a walk.  Ball four got past the catcher and Juan Pierre advanced to third.

Photo of Moises Alou Courtesy of Wikipedia

Ivan Rodriguez faced off against Prior.  Prior had the advantage of an 0-2 count but Rodriguez stroked a single to left field scoring Pierre.  The lead was down to 2 and a young Miguel Cabrera, future Triple Crown winner, stepped in to face Prior. Cabrera hit an easy bouncing ball to Shortstop and this would get them out of trouble.  An easy 6-4-3 double play and the inning is over.  The ball bounced.  Shortstop Alex Gonzalez turned to backhand the grounder. It hit in his glove and then dropped straight to the ground.  Everyone was safe.  Bases loaded.  Instead of being out of the inning it was the start of dark times.

Derek Lee, future Cubs' legend, stepped in and doubled to left and the game was tied. Prior was gone but they could still salvage this thing.  It wasn't the end of the world.  Mike Lowell was walked intentionally to load the bases and a sacrifice fly from Mr. Marlin, Jeff Conine, gave Florida the lead and gave the Cubs their second out.  Todd Hollandsworth was walked intentionally to load up the bases and Mike Mordecai, the first out of the inning stepped in with the bases loaded.

Photo of Miguel Cabrera Courtesy of Bleacher Report

Steve Lyons, the Fox broadcaster, told everyone as the 2-1 pitch was being delivered that Mordecai was a great fastball hitter.  Mordecai was lucky because that was exactly what he was getting and it was exactly where he wanted it.  Right down the middle.  Mordecai rifled the pitch to left-center field and it was a shot right at the very symbol of the Cubs.  It smacked up against the Wrigley Field ivy clearing the bases and scoring three runs.  An RBI single by Juan Pierre followed giving Florida an 8-3 lead.  Luis Castillo mercifully ended the inning with a pop out to second base but the curse had struck.  Despite the wild pitch, botched double play ball and conga line of batters to the plate Cubs fans knew exactly who to blame.  It was the guy who tried to catch the ball.

The guy's name is known to everyone:  Steve Bartman.  His life was ruined.  He received death threats.  He had beer poured on him.  He had to be escorted out of the stadium by security.  His entire life changed for the negative because of one foul ball.  There are a trillion reasons (other than the regular common sense reasons) that you cannot blame Steve Bartman.  Here are just a few:

1.  Steve Bartman did exactly what you would have done.  Deny it all you want but if you are at a regular season game (let alone a potentially series clinching game) and a foul ball comes your way your first thought is going to be "I've been coming to games for years and I am finally getting a foul ball."  Watching the replay at least five other fans are going for the ball.  A fan two seats in front of Bartman comes within an eye lash of touching the ball before Bartman does.

2.  The Cubs themselves did not blame Bartman.  The team issued a statement after the game saying "games are won on the playing field-not in the stands.  It is unfair and inaccurate to suggest that an individual fan is responsible for the events that transpired in Game 6.  He did what every fan who comes to the ballpark tries to do-catch a foul ball in the stands.  That's one of the things that makes baseball the special sport that it is."

3.  The Cubs self destructed.  A wild pitch and a botched double play ball are only part of the story. All of the Marlins hits were clean base hits that were nowhere near being outs.  Mark Prior,the Cubs young ace, said after the game "We had chances to get out of that situation.  I hung an 0-2 curveball  to Rodriguez that he hit for a single.  Alex Gonzales, who's a sure thing almost at Shortstop, the ball came up on him...Everybody in the clubhouse and management knows that play is not the reason we lost the game."

4.  The Cubs had a 3 games to 1 series lead.  The Cubs jumped out to a quick 4-0 lead in Game 1 but ended up losing 9-8 in 11 innings.  That could be seen as their first missed opportunity. Game 2 was a blow out 12-3 in favor of the Cubs.  Game 3 was a tight 11 inning game won on a top of the 11th RBI triple by Doug Glanville.  The emotion and momentum of that win translated into a Game 4 8-3 win which was actually not even as close as it sounds.  Game 5 was the Cubs opportunity to ride their scorching hot bats into the World Series but Josh Beckett dominated them with a 4-0 two hit shutout.  The Cubs also had a chance to win Game 7.  They gave up three runs in the first to Florida but in the second and third they roared back and took a 5-3 lead.  Two innings later the Cubs gave the lead back and kept giving until Florida led 9-5.  From the time the Cubs took their 5-3 to the end of the game they had exactly 0 base runners and one hit.  A two out solo, pinch hit Home Run by Troy O'Leary in the 7th.

5.  This Marlins team was good.  We didn't know it then but we can see it now.  The Marlins had won the World Series in 1997 with an amazing collection of talent including Bobby Bonillia, Moises Alou, Gary Sheffield, Al Leiter, Kevin Brown and quite a few others.  That team was immediately torn apart and the Marlins went into a rebuilding mode.  Entering the 2003 season they were a joke with little proven talent, other than Ivan Rodriguez.  When their season record hit 16-22, last place in the N.L.East, nine games out of first and losers of 12 of their last 16 games,  the management changed managers.  Jeff Torborg was out, 72 year old Jack McKeon was in and the laughter got louder.  These poor Marlins.  Not only did they have the worst team in the league, now their manager might be late for games because he was taking advantage of an early bird special somewhere.  The Marlins went 75-49 under McKeon and won a Wild Card berth.  At the time we looked at the team as an inexperienced group of kids with no proven talent.  What we know now is that this team was full of All Stars and some possible Hall of Famers.  Ivan Rodriguez was a former MVP and Todd Hollandsworth was a former Rookie of the Year and All Star.  Other than these two there were very few recognizable names.  That would change.  It has been ten years since this series and few fans won't recognize the names that were on this roster:  Derrek Lee, Mike Lowell, Juan Pierre, Juan Encarnacion, Miguel Cabrera, Brad Penny, Dontrelle Willis, Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett.  Every one of those players became (or still is) a major contributor to playoff teams in other cities.  The Marlins of 2003, mostly because of the perception they had coming into the season, are one of the most underrated World Series teams in history.

TRIVIA QUESTION

The Chicago Cubs moved into Wrigley Field in 1916 although the stadium was opened in 1914.  What team originally occupied the Stadium?  (for imaginary bonus points, what was the original name of the stadium?)

Answer to last week's question: 
Congratulations to TJD who got the answer to last week's question correct.
 

Garry Maddox made his debut in Centerfield for the Giants on April 25, 1972.  Starting for the Giants that night was future Hall of Fame Pitcher Juan Marichal.  Facing off against Marichal was future Hall of Fame pitcher Steve Carlton.  Maddox went 0-3 with 2 strikeouts against Carlton (the Giants only got one hit in the game) as Carlton won his third game.  Maddox would be traded to the Phillies on May 4, 1975.  Carlton and Maddox would play together for a number of years during the Phillies most successful period, each being major contributors to the Phillies first sustained period of success.

Forgiving Baseball's Scapegoats: Leon Durham

Don't forget to check out the other articles in the "Forgiving Baseball's Scapegoats" Series: Fred Merkle, Hack Wilson, Johnny Pesky and Ralph Branca

Writers can be very competitive creatures.  They all need to come up with the headline that captures your attention.  Through this competition many of the great plays in history become known by a specific name.  Bobby Thomson's Home Run became the "Shot Heard Round the World".  Enos Slaughter's run around the bases became known as "Enos Slaughter's mad dash".  The focus of this week's article has come to be known simply as "Bull's Ole".

It had been quite some time since the Cubs had been in the post season.  39 years to be exact.  In fact, they had not reached the postseason since 1945 when the owner of the Billy Goats Tavern had been asked to remove his goat from the 1945 World Series and cursed the team.  So when the Cubs won the National League East over the heavily favored Cardinals and Phillies as well as the improving New York Mets, Chicago came alive.

Chitown saw this as a team of destiny.  They were well built from the parts of dismantled dynasties at most positions and young budding stars at others.  Ron Cey had come from the Dodgers.  Larry Bowa, Gary Matthews, Keith Moreland, Warren Brusstar, Ryne Sandberg and Bob Dernier had come from the Phillies.  Dennis Eckersley was acquired from the Red Sox for first baseman Bill Buckner.  Davey Lopes came in a late season trade from Oakland and Rick Sutcliffe came in a late season trade from Cleveland. Leon Durham had come from the Cardinals.  Very little talent was home grown but it somehow all worked together.

Photo of Ryne Sandberg Courtesy of Bleacher Report

They took over first place on August 1 and never looked back, winning the division by 8 1/2 games.  The first two games of the NLCS were in Chicago and it looked certain that the curse had been nothing more than a joke.  Wrigley Field was a madhouse as the Cubs won the first game 13-0 and the second game 4-2.  The NLCS was a best of five until 1985 and the Cubs needed just one more win to advance to their first World Series since ten years before Disneyland existed.  They needed to win just one of the last three games against the San Diego Padres, another collection of fallen dynasties.  The Padres had Steve Garvey of the Dodgers and Graig Nettles and Goose Gossage of the Yankees.

When the Cubs jumped out to a quick 1-0 lead in the second inning of Game 3, the Padres were expected to fold up and just be satisfied with having made the playoffs for the first time in team history.  Dennis Eckersley had allowed only 4 hits through the first 5 innings and really had no trouble to this point.  Then the bottom of the 5th came and  the Padres exploded for three runs on 4 hits.  A 4 run 6th inning finished the scoring for a 7-1 win.  It was a disappointing loss but the Cubs needed to win just one of the next two.  The Cubs again jumped out to a lead and were tied at 5 heading into the bottom of the 9th when Steve Garvey hit a two run Home Run to win the game and force a final deciding game.

Now Cubs fans were worried and talk of the curse ramped up again.  Their fears seemed to be put to rest when Leon "Bull" Durham hit a big two run Home Run in the first and Jody Davis hit a solo Home Run in the second.  Another three run lead and the Cubs were relaxed.  There was no curse.  The Cubs took the three run lead into the 6th.  San Diego scored one but couldn't get any closer

Then came the moment everyone was waiting for:  the curse roared out.  Carmelo Martinez walked to start the inning.  He was sacrificed to second base.  Tim Flannery hit a ground ball right to Durham at First base.  It moved quickly but it should have been routine.  Durham missed.  It went right through his legs.  It was a play the two time All Star had made a thousand times but for whatever reason on this ground ball it went right past him.  Martinez scored from second and the game was tied.  A single, a double, another single and three runs followed.  The Padres led 5-3.  The Cubs put runners on in each of the last two innings but none of them scored and the Padres celebrated the greatest moment in franchise history while Cubs fans pointed to Durham's error as the reason they were headed home for another cold and windy winter.

Photo of Leon Durham Courtesy of Bleacher Report

There are many reasons you cannot blame Leon Durham for the series loss.  Here are just a few:
1.  A few years ago Bob Ibach, the PR Director of the Cubs at the time, gave an interview discussing the series.  He revealed that while the Cubs were at bat in the 7th a Gatorade cooler toppled over on the Cubs bench.  One of the victims of the Gatorade was Durham's glove.  The equipment staff did their best to dry the glove using hair dryers, towels and whatever else was available.  Apparently the glove oil, tobacco juice, dirt and leather along with the sugar of the Gatorade created an adhesive.  The Cubs equipment managers did what they could to fix the glove but it was barely serviceable.  Instead of trying to break in an unfamiliar glove, Bull took the familiar glove with him out to the field.  According to Ibach Durham looked down to see if the glove would even open and that was when he lost track of the ball.

2.  The Cubs had only 5 hits in Game 5 and only 2 after the second inning.  For an offense that won 13-0 in game 1 it was a very quiet deciding game.  One of those 5 hits was a two run Home Run by Durham himself.  If it hadn't been for Durham the Cubs wouldn't have been in the game at all.

3.  The Cubs lost three straight after winning the first two games of the series.  In each of those three games they had a lead and in one they were tied late in the game.  In the final 2 games Durham hit Home Runs, one of the few Cubs players hitting.  Although he only had three hits in the five games he made them count.

4.  Durham's error allowed only one run to score.  The two singles, double and three runs that came after had nothing to do with Durham.

Forgiving Baseball's Scapegoats: Hack Wilson

If you enjoy this article be sure to check out the previous articles in the Forgiving Baseball's Scapegoats: Fred Merkle and Fred Snodgrass

Just the thought of something like this would wake an outfielder up in a cold sweat. It would be a worst nightmare.  Like the dream where you show up to class naked.  Or you're trying to run away from something but your legs don't work.  The difference for Hack Wilson was that this was no dream.  It was actually happening.

Just a few minutes ago there was no doubt about the outcome of this game.  The Cubs had an 8-0  lead in the seventh inning and they were going to tie up the 1929 World Series against the Philadelphia Athletics.  The inning started poorly for the Cubs.  A solo Home Run for Jimmie Foxx.  So what.  8-1.  That was followed by four straight singles and two more runs.  Still no problem.  8-3.  They only needed three outs without giving up 5 runs.  The next hitter popped up to short.  One out.  That was followed quickly by another single.  8-4 and now the lead was cut in half.  The Cubs changed pitchers, hoping this would make the difference.  It looked like it might.  Mule Haas lifted a fly ball to Center field.  The A's were satisfied with that. The runner on third would likely tag up and come home.  The Cubs were satisfied assuming they would trade one more out for a run but the moment Haas made contact Hack Wilson's nightmare began.

Photo of Hack Wilson Courtesy of Chicago Tribune

It was terrifying.  The  ball left the bat and he had no idea where it was.  He could tell it was in the air and he could tell it was in his general area but he had no idea where.  He needed help.  He looked to the shortstop who pointed, then to the left and right fielders, sprinting, yelling, pointing.  He still didn't see it.  When you see a fly ball and react immediately you can estimate where it will come down.  If you don't know where it is how can you expect to track it down?  He finally saw it but it was well over his head and deep.  He raced after it but there was nothing he could do.  A three run, inside the park Home Run and the game was tied with still only one out. 

The bases were now empty so all the Cubs needed was two more outs to keep the game tied.  The A's weren't quite done.  A walk, a pitching change, a single, another RBI single, another pitching change, a hit batter and  two run double led to a 10- 8 deficit.  Finally, two strikeouts and they were out of the inning.  Instead of the 8-0 lead that they had started with they were down 10-8.  It was the biggest inning in the history of the World Series and the blame was hung on the shoulders of Hack Wilson. 

Photo of Hack Wilson Courtesy of ESPN

The Cubs came to bat looking to swing the momentum back to their side.  They had some strong bats coming up.  Charlie Grimm grounded out.  Zach Taylor struck out  and the Cubs used a pinch hitter, future Hall of Famer Gabby Hartnett, who struck out.  The 8th inning was over for the Cubs and they were down to three offensive outs.  The top of the order was up in the 9th.  Norm McMillian struck out.  Woody English struck out looking and Rogers Hornsby, the great "Rajah", one of the greatest hitters of all time, flew out to end the game.

It was the greatest collapse in a single game in World Series history.  An eight run lead turned into a two run loss in a single inning.  The Cubs lost Game 4 and Game5 and the 1929 Philadelphia Athletics fulfilled their destiny as one of the top teams in history.  The entire Cubs team had collapsed but the blame immediately focused on Hack Wilson and his misadventure in Center field.

Photo of 1933 Mule Haas Baseball Card Courtesy of Baseball Almanac

There are plenty of reasons why Hack Wilson does not deserve the blame for this loss or the loss of the series.  Here are just a few:

1.  Wilson's error allowed three runs to tie up the game in what had been an 8-0 lead.  The other seven runs scored in the inning had nothing to do with Wilson's performance.  Putting the blame on Wilson ignores a complete collapse by the pitching staff.  Prior to the misplayed fly ball the Cubs pitchers had allowed five singles, a Home Run and four runs while recording only one out.  Following the Wilson misplay the pitching staff allowed a walk, a hit by pitch, two singles, a double and three more runs before recording another out.  the collapse was a complete team wide collapse and cannot be pinned on one person.

2. Wilson contributed significantly to the Cubs 8-0 lead.  He went 2-3, including a single with a man on base, and scored a run in the Cubs own five run sixth inning.

3.  The Cubs would not have made the World Series without the season contributions of Hack Wilson.  Wilson drove in 153 and hit .345 while hitting 39 Home Runs.  His following season (1930) may be the greatest offensive season in the history of the game. 

4.  Wilson was the Cubs' greatest offensive weapon in the 1929 World Series.  Hack hit .471 in the five game series (well above the next closest Cubs regular) with 8 hits.  His eight hits included a 3-3 day with 2 walks and a run in the Cubs only win in the Series. 

5.  Hack Wilson was the pin cushion of the league for several years.  John McGraw let Wilson slip away because he felt Wilson's night life habits meant that Wilson couldn't perform.  During his time in Chicago his night life continued unchanged and the papers made continued reference to his partying.  The missed fly ball seemed to be one more way for the papers to pin the tail on Wilson.

Check back next week for the continuation of the Forgiving Baseball's Scapegoats series when we explore Johnny Pesky and his role in the 1946 World Series.

Forgiving Baseball's Scapegoats: Fred Merkle

Dear sir,

In the game today at New York between New York and the Chgo Club, in the last half of the 9th inning, the score was a tie, 1 to 1.  New York was at the Bat, with two men out, McCormick of N. York on 3rd base.  Bridwell was at the Bat and hit a clean single Base-hit to Center Field...

That was the last moment of the craziest season ever that made any sense. 

___________________________________________________________________________________
The young rookie takes a modest lead off of first.  Not too large.  He knows that with two outs in a tie game and a runner on third he is not the important person.  He just wants a big enough lead to get the pitcher's attention.  He takes a step off the bag.  Two steps.  Now three, four, five and gets ready to run on contact.  The pitcher steps off the bag and fakes a throw.  The runner dives back.

The pitcher this day is Jack Pfister, known throughout the league as "Jack the Giant Killer".  Even in a terrible season when he struggles with arm problems and he can't seem to beat anyone he can beat the hated rivals.  His arm is killing him.  He struggles all day and his curve ball, at least the three that he attempts to throw, are excruciating.  He has little left to give but he keeps going anyway.  He fakes the throw to first but never truly intends to throw over.  It just takes too much out of him.  It won't matter.  The message is clear.  Pfister is telling the runner without saying a word:  "I know you're there."  The runner's dive back to the bag tells Pfister, with no sound, "I know your moves."

This is the crucial moment of the crucial inning of the crucial series of the 1908 season.  The Giants had sported a four and a half game lead just a few days ago.  Then two losses to the Pirates and two losses to the Cubs heading into this game and the league was all tied up again.  The seemingly lifeless Cubs came out of hibernation at the right time and fought their way back into contention.  And who is the biggest beneficiary of all this Cubs/Giants battle?  The Pirates, who were five games behind after losing a double header to the Giants on September 18th.  That was the day the writers crowned the Giants.  The Pirates reacted by winning their next five games and cut the lead behind the Cubs and Giants to one game.  As the Cubs and Giants, the ugliest rivalry in the sports at that time, fight and claw at each other, the Pirates keep winning. 

The runner takes another modest lead, maybe even a step further this time, confident that the pitcher will not throw over.  The runner is a 19 year old kid from Toledo, OH.  Going from small town to Giant city is a big change for a young man like him but he adjusted well in his limited playing time.  He normally doesn't play but Fred Tenney, the regular first baseman, sat out this game with back problems.  Tenney had not missed any games before today and he won't miss another after this one all year but this kid has done well today.  He got the single that moved the winning run just 30 steps from home plate and now he is standing off first smiling, knowing he has made the difference.

To this point in his brief career Fred Merkle has been described as using his intelligence "in everything he does" and showing  "good judgment on the base paths".  The Chicago Tribune, just a few days earlier, told readers that if Tenney went down the Giants would be fine because Merkle is ready to step in to the First base role.  He stands a few steps off first now.  Watching Pfister.  Waiting for the pitch.

Photo of Fred Merkle Courtesy of Bleacher Report

Pfister swings his arm back and delivers the first pitch to Al Bridwell.  Bridwell swings the bat and drives the ball to center field.  With two outs Moose McCormick, the runner on third, ambles home.  This is the last moment of the craziest season ever that made any sense.  The game is over.  Except it isn't.

It takes an estimated 30 steps to run the 90 feet between bases.  If Fred Merkle, the base runner on first, has a slight lead of five or six steps and has taken even a slow trot towards second on contact, he is probably  another eight or ten steps toward second.  He is at least half way or more towards the base and this is where all hell breaks loose. 

As McCormick pounds his foot emphatically on the plate to score the winning run the ecstatic fans pour onto the field like a wave. Their Giants have beaten the hated Cubs and climbed back into first place.  They were going to celebrate, and maybe taunt a few Cubs in the process. Merkle has never experienced anything like this before and it is intimidating as hell to a young 19 year old kid.  Many of them head straight for him to congratulate him on the hit that put McCormick on third.  All he knows is that half crazed fans are all over the place and it is a long way to that Polo Grounds clubhouse entrance in center field.  Since McCormick has already scored the winning run why take the extra 15 or so steps when those 15 steps get you closer to the safety of the clubhouse.  And besides, the game is over.  Except it isn't.

Johnny Evers, the Cubs second baseman, is the best in the league.  In fact, other than Nap LaJoie, no one could remember someone playing second base better.  One other thing about Evers.  He is by far, without equal, the most fiery, competitive person the game has ever seen.  Not even Cobb can equal the fighting spirit of Evers, known by some as the "Human Crab",  in his prime.  Baseball is this man's life and he knows every detail, every quirk, every loophole in the rule book and he'll be damned if anyone, especially a 19 year old rookie,  steals a win from Johnny Evers.  Every night, after the bars close of course, Evers comes home with a candy bar, the Sporting News and the baseball rule book and studies the game before bed.  A few weeks before this, the Cubs were playing the Pirates when the same thing happened. Evers knows the rule. Even if the winning run scores the runner on first has to advance to second to erase the chance of a force out.  Simple.  If the runner doesn't touch second the play is still alive.  In the Pirates game Evers had gotten the ball, stepped on second and told the umpire the runner was out.  The umpire hadn't seen the play so the run in that game counted.  But luck today is with the Cubs.  The umpire from that game who had not been on the lookout for the runner touching second is behind the plate umpire.  He knows that Evers knows the rules and he sees what Evers is up to.

Photo of Johnny Evers Courtesy of ESPN

The noise is unbelievable.  How anyone hears anything clearly is amazing but Evers has a clear idea of what needs to be done.  He is screaming, shrieking to Solly Hoffman. "Gimme the ball, damnit!  Come on Solly!"  People swarm everywhere. Fans, sportswriters and members of both teams running for the clubhouse.  Police men, the few that are on hand, try to keep order but there are just not enough to really do anything about it.  They basically try to make sure no one was getting trampled.

Hoffman tosses the ball to Evers but Joe McGinnity, one of the Giants' great pitchers, intercepts the throw.  Evers, Joe Tinker and McGinnity wrestle for the ball while Pfister and Frank Chance try to get the umpire's attention.  McGinnity gets free from the Cubs long enough to throw the ball somewhere into the crowd. If this were a cartoon (and it wasn't too far off) McGinnity would be dusting off his hands and walking proudly off.  There is no way the Cubs will find the ball in that swirling mass of humanity and confusion.  The Giants have won.  The game is over.  Except it still isn't.

Merkle is blissfully unaware at this point that anything other than a drunken bacchanal for the fans is taking place on the field.  That is until Christy Mathewson, the "Christian Gentleman" comes desperately looking for Merkle to get him back to second base.  As Merkle returns to the field, trying to rebuckle his pants as he runs, possibly just in socks, a Cubs relief pitcher (which in 1908 means a spectator in uniform) is fighting with a fan.  Rube Kroh sees McGinnity throw the ball into the crowd and somehow sees who picks up the ball.  Kroh sprints after the fan and wrestles with him.  Undoubtedly, the drunken fans have no idea what the hell is happening and see only a hated rival attacking their brethren so this becomes a hell of a struggle.  Kroh pounds the fan over the head, crushing his bowler hat, and steals the ball back.  This is getting closer and closer to a cartoon every moment and you can almost envision stars and birds swirling around the fan's head while a bump slowly grows out of his head.

Kroh throws to Evers who holds the ball straight in the air for the umpire to see and jumps up and down on the bag.  The Cubs have turned the never before or after seen Center field to opposing pitcher to fan to relief pitcher to second base force out play.  The umpire at second base hasn't seen Merkle run for the clubhouse before reaching second but the home plate umpire has.  "Merkle never reached second base.  The runner is out.  The run doesn't count.  The inning is over."

New York's finest, the few on hand, already overwhelmed by the crazed fans, realize this is a bad situation that is about to get much much worse.  As word circulates through the crowd jubilation turns to anger.  The police encircle the umps, the rival Cubs can fend for themselves, and use their nightsticks forging a way through the crowd to safety. 

The umpires immediately send off a letter to the league President.  "Dear sir, in the game today at New York...  Merkle did not run the Ball out; he started toward 2nd base but on getting half way there, he turned and ran down the Field toward the Club House. The Ball was fielded in to 2nd base for a Chgo Man to make the play."

Even if the umpires can clear the fans from the field there is not enough light and certainly not enough security, to resume the game.  Game over.  1-1 tie.  The Giants protest the decision.  The Cubs counter protest.  And still, they play the regularly scheduled game the next day without incident.  The Giants win 5-4 to regain first place. 

The headlines the next day are murderous towards the Cubs.  The Cubs fire back.  As the season churns on and the race remains tight all the way, Fred Merkle becomes the focus of everyone's hatred.  The Giants fans start to despise him.  Why the hell couldn't he have taken 15 more steps to finish the play?  The terms "numbskull" and "bonehead" are introduced into the American vernacular to describe him.  The Cubs' owner claims it was not the Cubs' fault the Giants were stupid.  "We can't supply brains to New York's dumb players."

The Giants, Cubs and Pirates continue to fight for the pennant and at the end of the regular season the Cubs and Giants are tied, with the Pirates just a half game behind them both.  The difference is that tied, disputed game from September 23rd that the Giants should have won if only Merkle had run a few more feet.  The protests have gone back and forth and the league's investigation has sworn affidavit's from both sides swearing that "it happened this way" which is exactly the opposite of the way the other team swore it had happened.  The final result is that the teams would "replay" the disputed tied game. Technically it is the first playoff in Major League history but it is only called  a replay game.  The Cubs win the replay game and go on to beat the Tigers in the World Series.

Merkle's reputation as a player is ruined.  He will forever be known as the idiot who made the bonehead play of failing to touch second on a routine base hit and cost the Giants the 1908 pennant. The play is forever known as "Merkle's boner" and from this point to the end of his career every error he makes will immediately lead to a boo or the rude comment  "It's that damn Merkle again!" or "What do you expect? It's Merkle."

Merkle's career is much more than 15 steps he didn't take on an apparent game winning base hit.  As the Giants went on to reach the World Series in 1911, 1912 and 1913, Merkle makes major contributions  to the Giants winning teams.  He lands in the top ten in RBI four times, Home Runs three times and extra base hits five times.  Merkle ends his career with 1580 hits and also helps the 1916 Brooklyn Dodgers reach the World Series, their first appearance ever, and helps the 1918 Cubs reach the World Series.  He was not a hall of fame player but he was definitely not a bumbling idiot.

Photo of Fred Merkle in 1916 Brooklyn Robins uniform Courtesy of Watertown, OH History

The Merkle mistake took place over 100 years ago, in fact the same year as the Cubs' last World Series victory, yet Merkle is still blamed for losing the 1908 pennant for the Giants.  115 years after the fact it is time for Merkle to shed the label of bonehead.  There are plenty of reasons the lost pennant was not his fault.  Here are just a few:

1.  The Giants had a four and a half game lead with only a few weeks left in the season.  Merkle's early turn towards the clubhouse may have cost the Giants one game head to head with the Cubs, but the Giants had already blown their lead by the September 23rd Merkle game.  They were tied going into that game.

2.  The Giants as a group had lost focus.  On taking the four and a half game lead, the team started discussing who they would be playing in the Worlds Series and who would pitch the first game.  They immediately lost the next two games to the Pirates, another big contender in the pennant race that year, and the first two games of the Cubs series.

3. The Giants won 5-4 the next day, putting them back into first place by one game.  Regardless of the outcome of the Merkle game they had a chance to overcome the chaos and move forward.  They had the advantage since the Cubs were chasing them.

4. The fact that the newspapers and Sporting News made a point of discussing the Pittsburgh-Chicago game of a few weeks earlier, where Evers attempted to get the same ruling, seems to show that batters failing to run all the way to second in this situation was fairly common.  Merkle did what most players of the era did. 

5.  The Giants' closest competition in 1908 were the Pirates and Chicago.  The Giants went 11-11 against Pittsburgh and 11-11 against Chicago (including two straight losses to the Pirates and two straight to the Cubs after reaching the four and a half game lead).

6.  The Giants went just 11-10 in May and started June 7-8 leading to a six and a half game deficit.  Their competition during the beginning of June included Boston, St.Louis (the 6th and 7th place teams at that time.  St.Louis would finish dead last, winning only 49 games that year) Chicago and Pittsburgh (their competition). These records were long before Merkle started seeing playing time.

7.  The Giants should have won the replay game.  Christy Mathewson started the replay game for the Giants in New York with the intimidating support of an overflow crowd behind him.  The Cubs had received death threats and several of them were nervous.  Mathewson was the most dominant pitcher in the history of the game at that time. On the other hand, the Giants knocked Jack Pfister out of the game in the first inning after scoring a run and having two runners on base.  The Giants not only blew a four and a half game lead in late September, they blew a lead with Mathewson on the mound in the replay game.

8.  The Giants went on to reach the World Series in 1911, 1912, 1913, 1921, 1922, 1923 and 1924
 under McGraw's leadership and in 1933, 1936 and 1937 under the leadership of Bill Terry.  They won the Series in 1921, 1922 and 1933.  Although they didn't win the 1908 pennant they had plenty of success in the years that followed while the Cubs have not won since.

9.  The Giants never blamed Merkle so why should you?  John McGraw said "It is criminal to say that Merkle is stupid and to blame the loss of the pennant on him.  We were robbed of it and you can't say Merkle did that."  Al Bridwell later said "I wish I'd never gotten that hit.  I wish I'd struck out instead.  If I'd done that it would have spared Fred a lot of humiliation."

10. Merkle nearly won the Giants the 1912 World Series with a tenth inning RBI double in the eighth game giving the Giants the lead.  That World Series loss is blamed on next week's member of the scapegoat club.