Saturday, March 15, 2014

2014 National League Central Preview

***The Division Preview that follows is not betting advice in any way shape or form.  Please do not bet any money based in any part on these predictions.***

Don't forget to check out the American League EastAmerican League Central, and American League West  and National League East Previews and check back next week for the National League West Preview



Cincinnati Reds:
Who's New: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Brayan Pena (C) free agent from Tigers,
Skip Schumacher (IF) free agent from Dodgers,
Bryan Anderson (C) free agent from White Sox
Chris Nelson (3B) free agent from Angels
Ramon Santiago (IF) free agent from Tigers
OUTFIELDERS
Jason Bourgeois (OF) free agent from Rays,
Neil Thomas (OF) free agent from Cubs
Roger Berardina (OF) free agent from Phillies
STARTING PITCHERS
David Holmberg (SP) trade from Diamondbacks,
Chien Ming Wang (SP) free agent from Blue Jays
Jeff Francis (SP) free agent from Rockies
RELIEF PITCHERS
Who Left: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Ryan Hannigan (C) trade to Rays,
Cesar Izturis (SS) free agent to Astros
OUTFIELDERS
Shin Soo Choo (OF) to Rangers,
Xavier Paul (OF) free agent to Orioles
Derrick Robinson (OF) unsinged free agent
STARTING PITCHERS
Greg Reynolds (SP) free agent to Japan
Bronson Arroyo (SP) free agent to Diamondbacks
RELIEF PITCHERS
Zach Duke (RP) free agent to Brewers
Nick Masset (RP) free agent to Rockies
Winter Headlines: 
Dusty hits the road but is Price right?
What to Expect?:
Nothing against Brian Price but he's no Dusty Baker, at least not yet.  After a first round exit this year the Reds decided it was time to move on without Dusty. It may end up being one of the worst decisions this leadership group has ever made. That being said, the core group of Votto, Phillips, Bruce and Frazier are still there and the rotation looks solid with Cueto, Latos, Bailey and Leake meaning the Reds are still probably the most talented team in this division.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
Last year I predicted the Reds would win it all.  Things started off badly from the beginning.  They lost their clean up hitter on opening day.  Their ace went down and missed most of the year.  Their second ace pitched fantastically but somehow couldn't win.  The Reds deserve some good luck for once.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Reds Fans Want?:
The Reds lost their lead off hitter Choo to free agency and have done nothing to replace him.  Theoretically Billy Hamilton will be the lead off hitter but there are questions of his ability to play at the Major League level.  Add to that the change of manager and things in Cincinnati are still questionable.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Billy Hamilton set a record for stolen bases in the minor leagues a few years ago.  The question is how will he do at the next level.  He did not have much chance to show his talent last year but with Choo gone Hamilton will get his chance to show what he can do.
Expect Great Things From:
Brandon Phillips has developed into one of the best players in the league but for some reason his name came up in trade rumors over the off season.  In 2012 when Joey Votto went out for an extended period it was Phillips that stepped up.  When the team started slowly in 2013 Phillips got the team back on track.  Expect Phillips to do what he always does: perform at a high level.
Prediction:1st in NL Central


St. Louis Cardinals
Who's New:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Jhonny Peralta (SS) free agent from Tigers,
Mark Ellis (2B) free agent from Dodgers,
OUTFIELDERS
Peter Bourjos (OF) trade from Angels, 
STARTING PITCHERS
RELIEF PITCHERS
Pat Nesheck (RP) free agent from Athletics
Who Left?: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
David Freese (3b) trade to Angels,
Brock Peterson (1B) free agent to Nationals
Ty Wigginton (IF) free agent to Marlins
Rob Johnson (C) free agent to Padres
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Betran (OF) free agent to Yankees,
Adron Chambers (OF) free agent to Astros
STARTING PITCHERS
Jake Westbrook (SP) unsigned free agent
RELIEF PITCHERS
Fernando Salas (RP) trade to Angels,
Edward Mujica (RP) free agent to Red Sox,
John Axford (RP) free agent to Indians, Brock Peterson (1B) free agent to Nationals
Winter Headlines:  
Beltran and Freese gone.  Will the pitching hold up?
What to Expect?:
For the last few years Cardinals fans have dealt with the loss of major stars and expected the worst.  They have been pleasantly surprised with the results.  This year they lost Beltran, Freese and Mujica and done little to replace them.  Still, with the success that Mike Matheny has had in filling holes and the success of the organization overall it is hard to count this team out.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
The Cardinals organization has quietly built itself into the best organization in baseball.  Despite the loss of Pujols, Carpenter, Beltran and Freese, the Cardinals still seem to find ways to win.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Cardinals Fans Want?:
The Cardinals continue to lose big names without replacing them.  They have been able to find players in a number of ways, mostly by listening to the smart baseball minds in the organization.  Even the best baseball minds make mistakes.  At what point will the baseball trust in St.Louis fail?
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Matt Holliday is generally considered a super star by many baseball experts but there are numerous holes in his game.  He is capable of great things but at times seems to have mental lapses that lead to mistakes at the worst possible time.  Expect Holliday to perform well but don't look for him to fill the holes left by the loss of Furcal, Beltran and Freese.
Expect Great Things From:
Yadier Molina is sometimes overlooked in the Cardinals current run.  In 2006 when the Cardinals won their first World Series since 1982, Molina hit the game winning Home Run to propel them to the World Series.  When they pushed to another title in 2011 Molina was the quiet leader.  Molina always seems to be at the center of the good things that happen in St. Louis.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Adam Wainwright missed all of the 2011 season as the Cardinals won the World Series.  He bounced back to a 14-13 season in 2012 and went 19-9 in 2013 while pitching well over 200 innings.  Wainwright is clearly a great pitcher but how many innings can an arm that missed an entire season just a few short years ago take?
Prediction: 2nd in NL East. Wild Card



Milwaukee Brewers
Who's New: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Irving Falu (IF) free agent from Royals,
Matt Pagnozzi (C) free agent from Astros,
Lyle Overbay (1B) free agent from Yankees
Mark Reynolds (3B) free agent from Yankees
OUTFIELDERS
STARTING PITCHERS
Matt Garza (SP) free agent from Rangers
Wil Smith (SP) trade from Royals,
RELIEF PITCHERS
Zach Duke (RP) free agent from Reds
Francisco Rodriguez (RP) free agent from Orioles
Who Left:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Blake Lali (1B) free agent to Diamondbacks,
Alex Gonzalez (IF) free agent to Orioles
Yuniesky Betancourt (IF) unsigned free agent
OUTFIELDERS
 Norichiki Aoka (OF) trade to Royals,
Corey Hart (OF) free agent to Mariners
STARTING PITCHERS
Chris Narveson (SP) free agent from Japan
Aaron Laffey (SP) free agent to Orioles
RELIEF PITCHERS
Burke Badenhop (RP) trade to Red Sox,
Michael Gonzales (RP) free agent to Nationals
Winter Headlines: Braun's return
What to Expect?:
The Brewers had a nice run over the last few years but 2013 was a struggle.  The team fell off severely as they dealt with the Ryan Braun situation.  They have now lost Corey Hart who was a big piece of the Brewers recent success.  They are in a strong division but for some reason I can't count them out of playoff contention just yet.  With players like Jean Segura, Carlos Gomez and Aramis Ramirez this team could be very dangerous.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
The Brewers team had some truly terrible years before this current run of success.  All they have to show for this recent history is two failed playoff appearances.  The Brewers are on the brink of heading for another dark period and it would be nice to see them have some more success before the decline.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Brewers Fans Want?:
The Brewers have lost most of the key players of their playoff runs and the one remaining key piece is in disgrace.  If Braun fails and the pitching does not perform up to their potential it could take quite some time before the Brewers are able to compete again.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Ryan Braun left the team last year in disgrace.  He will return for the full year this year and will be a great player again.  Just don't expect him to win an MVP.
Expect Great Things From:
Jean Segura was a great surprise for the Brewers last year in a season of turmoil.  He was near the top of the league in batting for most of the year and was the one bright spot for the team.  Expect Segura to continue to improve.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Matt Garza was a big contributor to the Rays playoff runs before moving on the Cubs.  With the Cubs he did not have the success they had hoped for and he was moved to the Rangers at the deadline last year.  All the Rangers got was a 4-5 record and a high ERA.  Garza, when healthy, has the potential to be an ace but continuing arm problems could sideline his career.
Prediction:3rd in NL Central



Pittsburgh Pirates:
Who's New: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Chris Stewart (C) trade from Yankees,
Travis Ishikawa (1B) free agent from White Sox, 
Michael Martinez (IF) free agent from Phillies, 
Travis McGuinness (1B) trade from Rangers
Omir Santos (C) free agent from Indians
OUTFIELDERS
 Jeff Decker (OF) trade from Padres,
STARTING PITCHERS
 Edinson Volquez (SP) free agent from Dodgers,
RELIEF PITCHERS
Cody Eppeley (RP) free agent from Twins,
Miles Mikolas (RP) trade from Padres,
Duke Welker (RP) trade from Twins,
Who Left:
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Garrett Jones (1B) free agent to Marlins,
 Justin Mourneau (1B) free agent to Rockies,
John Buck (C) free agent to Mariners
Michael McKenry (C) free agent to Rockies
Brandon Inge (IF) released
OUTFIELDERS
Marlon Byrd (OF) free agent to Phillies,
Felix Pie (OF) unsigned free agent
STARTING PITCHERS
Kris Johnson (SP) traded to Twins,
A.J. Burnett (SP) free agent to Phillies
James McDonald (SP) free agent to Cubs
RELIEF PITCHERS
Mike Mikolas (RP) trade to Rangers
Kyle Farnsworth (RP) free agent to Mets
Chris Leroux (RP) free agent to Yankees
Jeff Karstens (RP) unsigned free agent
Winter Headlines: 
Follow up to playoffs?
Hurdle MOY, McCutcheon MVP
What to Expect?:
The Pirates had a magical year in 2013 but fell short.  They return an MVP and a Manager of the Year but the pitching staff remains a question.  Fortunately for Pittsburgh the Reds and Cardinals appear to have gotten weaker as well but the Brewers have improved.  The Pirates will need some upgrades in pitching but they should still be able to compete.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
The Pirates are one of the small market teams that have suffered while other free spending teams have thrived.  The Pirates reached the playoffs for the first time in over two decades and are looking to prove it was not just a fluke.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Pirates Fans Want?:
Last season was a magical season in Pittsburgh.  The problem is the pitching staff has taken a hit that it may not be able to recover from.  Losing A.J.Burnett, the leader of the staff, and replacing him with Edinson Volquez is not reassuring.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Wandy Rodriguez is a very good pitcher.  he proved that in Houston ofr several years and has had a strong year and a half in Pittsburgh.  Rodriguez is not an ace and will not be able to fill Burnett's shoes.
Expect Great Things From:
Andrew McCutcheon has been one of the unknown star players in the league for the last three years until he was finally recognized as the MVP last year.  McCutcheon should continue to get better and will hopefully be the next great player in the Pirates long history joining the names of Wagner, Waner, Clemente and Bonds.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Edinson Volquez had a great start to his career in Cincinnati but the last few years have been a struggle. After a few difficult years in San Diego and a failed late season stint with the Dodgers, Volquez is taking a shot at helping the Pirates.  If he fails in Pittsburgh he may not get another shot.
Prediction: 4th in NL Central





Chicago Cubs
Who's New: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
George Kottras (C) trade from Royals,
John Baker (C) free agent from Dodgers,
Ryan Roberts (IF) free agent from Rays,
Chris Valaika (IF) trade from Marlins
Emilio Bonifacio (IF) free agent fromRoyals
OUTFIELDERS
Casper Wells (OF) free agent from Phillies,
Justin Ruggiano (OF) trade from Marlins,
Chris Coghlan (OF) free agent from Marlins
STARTING PITCHERS
Liam Hendricks (SP) waiver claim from Twins,
Jonathan Sanchez (SP) free agent from Dodgers
Jason Hammel (SP) free agent from Orioles
James McDonald (SP) free agent from Pirates
RELIEF PITCHERS
Chris Valaika (P) free agent from Marlins,
Wesley Wright (RP) free agent from Rays,
Jose Veras (RP) free agent from Tigers
Who Left: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
 J.C. Boscan (C) free agent to Dodgers,
Dioner Navarro (C) free agent to Blue Jays,
Cody Ranson (3B) released
OUTFIELDERS
Brian Bougosevic (OF) trade to Marlins,
Cole Gillespe (OF) free agent to Mariners,
Thomas Neal (OF) free agent to Reds
Dave Sappelt (OF) free agent to Phillies
Daniel Bard (OF) free agent to Rangers
STARTING PITCHERS
Scott Baker (SP) free agent to Mariners
RELIEF PITCHERS
Eduardo Sanchez (RP) free agent to Tigers,
Zach Putnam (RP) free agent toWhite sox,
Michael Bowden (RP) free agent to Japan
Henry Alberto Rodriguez (RP) free agent to Marlins
Daniel Bard (RP) free agent to Rangers
Matt Guerrier (RP) free agent to Twins
Kevin Gregg (RP) unsigned free agent
Winter Headlines:
The Cubs get a new mascot.
What to Expect?:
Open the Cubs website and you will see their new slogan: Committed.  The Cubs have started their rebuilding process and appear to have a five year plan in place.  The problem is that until they can see if that five year plan is working there may be some truly terrible teams.  They definitely have some potentially great players in Ruggiano, Barney, Castro, Rizzo and Samardzjia but it is not enough to compete now.  In fact, some of those pieces may be moved for minor leaguers to help facilitate the five year plan.  The slogan may mean they are committed to winning but if could also be a warning that they will be committed to the asylum if things don't go the way they planned.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
Being a cursed organization is one thing.  Not winning a World Series for over 100 years is more than just a curse.  There is no longer suffering organization in sports than the Chicago Cubs.  They not only haven't won since 1908, they have had very few close calls.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Cubs Fans Want?:
There is definitely talent on this team.  Most of the infield has great potential and there are a few veteran presences on the pitching staff that can help the team along.  The Cubs should be improved over last year's disappointment but don't expect them to challenge the top four in this division just yet.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Starlin Castro  had a great first two years in the league and fell off each of the last two.  Castro has the ability to become a star in this league and the organization is working with him to get the most out of his talent.  If the Cub five year plan is effective Castro will need to be part of it but don't expect him to emerge as a star just yet.
Expect Great Things From:
Anthony Rizzo hit 23 Home Runs last year and drove in 80 RBI.  Somehow he only hit .233 for the year and struck out 127 times.  If Rizzo is able to improve his patience at the plate and make better decisions expect Rizzo to become the Cubs' All Star Representative.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Edwin Jackson was expected to be a Dodgers ace when he first entered the league.  That didn't happen.  He moved on to the Rays, Tigers, White Sox, Diamondbacks,Cardinals, White Sox again, Nationals and now the Cubs.  At every stop he has impressed the fan bases with his ability.  Though he has never become the superstar that was expected by the Dodgers he has become a very good pitcher.  The problem with journeymen players is that they sometimes get a reputation for being expendale and at some point run out of suitors.  Will the Cubs be the last stop for Jackson?
Prediction: 5th place in NL Central

*-Please be aware that these predictions are based on the rosters as set in the middle of March.  There are still several key free agents unsigned which could alter these previews.  Also, injuries during spring training could alter my outlook.  Check back next week for the NL West Preview and continue following to see my final predictions at the start of the season.


TRIVIA QUESTIONS:
The Cubs won the National League in 1906, 1907, 1908 and 1910 during the Tinker, Evers and Chance years.  They have not been as consistently in contention since.  How many post season appearances have the Cubs made since they lost the 1910 World Series?

Answer to Last Week's Trivia Question:
The divisional format in 1969 with the East and West starting play that year.  Here are the Eastern Division Rookies of The Year since then:
Carl Morton (Expos)1970
John Matlack (Mets)1972
Bake  McBride (Cardinals) 1974
Andre Dawson (Expos)1977
Daryl Strawberry (Mets) 1983
Doc Gooden (Mets) 1984
Vince Coleman (Cardinals) 1985
Todd Worrell (Cardinals) 1986
Jerome Walton (Cubs) 1989
Scott Rolen (Phillies) 1997
Rafael Furcal (Braves) 2000
Dontrelle Willis (Marlins) 2003
Ryan Howard (Phillies) 2005
Hanley Ramirez (Marlins) 2007
Chris Coghlan (Marlins) 2009
Craig Kimbrel (Braves) 2011
Bryce Harper (Nationals) 2012
Jose Fernandez (Marlins) 2013

Saturday, March 8, 2014

2014 National League East Preview

***The Division Preview that follows is not betting advice in any way shape or form.  Please do not bet any money based in any part on these predictions.***

Don't forget to check out the American League East, American League Central, and American League West Previews and check back next week for the National League Central Preview. 




Washington Nationals:
Who's New: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Brock Peterson (1B) free agent from Cardinals
Jamey Carroll (IF) free agent from Royals
Chris Snyder (C) free agent from Orioles
Koyie Hill (C) free agent from Cubs
Jamey Carroll (3B) free agent from Royals
Jose Lobaton (C) trade from Rays
OUTFIELDERS
Nate McLouth (OF) free agent from Orioles,
STARTING PITCHER
Doug Fister (SP) trade from Tigers
RELIEF PITCHERS
Daniel Stanage (RP) free agent from Angels,
Jerry Blevins (RP) trade from Athletics,
Luis Ayala (RP) free agent from Braves
Who Left: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Ferando Abad (IF) free agent to A's,
Ian Krol (C) trade to Tigers,
Steve Lombardozi (2B) trade to Tigers,
Chris Marrero (1B) free agent to Orioles
Chad Tracy (1B) free agent to Angels
OUTFIELDERS
STARTING PITCHERS
Dan Haren (SP) free agent to Dodgers,
Nathan Karns (SP) trade to Rays
RELIEF PITCHERS
Mark Lowe (RP) free agent to Rays,
Yunesky Maya (RP) free agent to Braves
Winter Headlines:
Regrets from last year. Slow start led to insurmountable deficit
Davey Johnson's out, Matt Williams is in as manager
What to Expect?:
This team is the clear class of this division.  They have certainly improved with the addition of Doug Fister to the rotation, which was already potentially the best in the league.  With Strasburg, Gonzales, Zimmerman, Detwiler and now Fister the Nationals are set to make a deep run in the playoffs. Their offense could be a bit of an issue but their defense is solid.  They even made some quiet, great additions late in the offseasn by adding Jamey Carroll and Jose Lobaton.  Carroll will quietly, professionally go about his business and will quietly help this team in ways the casual fan won't notice.  Now if they can avoid the slow start from last season they may do what was expected of them in 2013.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
The Nationals have had a tough history full of under achievement, poor teams and unfulfilled expectations.  For players like Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth and Stephen Strasburg who have struggled through the worst of times with the Nats, it would be nice to see them fulfill their potential.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Nationals Fans Want?:
Matt Williams may be a great manager but only time will tell.  The Nationals seem to have a great rotation but some how this team always seems to underachieve.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Ryan Zimmerman has had a great career.  Not a Hall of Fame career but a solid, respectable career which puts him on the Nationals Mount Rushmore.  Injuries and age have started to take their toll and it would be nice to see someone who has put so much effort into creating something special in DC get something back but his best days appear to be behind him.
Expect Great Things From:
Stephen Strasburg has improved every year since joining the Majors and you can expect him to continue to improve. His 8-9 record last year was deceptive as he certainly pitched well enough to win more games.  If the Nationals offense rebounds this year you can expect Strasburg to chase 20 wins for the first time in his career.
Prediction: 1st Place in NL East


 

Atlanta Braves
Who's New?: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Steven LeRud (C) free agent from Phillies,
OUTFIELDERS
STARTING PITCHERS
Gavin Floyd (SP) free gent from White Sox,
RELIEF PITCHERS
Yunesky Maya (RP) free agent from Nationals
Who Left?:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Brian McCann (C) free agent to Yankees,
Blake DeWitt (3B) released
Paul Janish (SS) free agent to Rockies
Eliot Johnson (IF) free agent to Indians
OUTFIELDERS
Reed Johnson (OF) free agent to Marlins
STARTING PITCHERS
Tim Hudson (SP) free agent to Giants,
Paul Maholm (SP) free agent to Dodgers
RELIEF PITCHERS
Scott Downs (RP) free agent to White Sox
Kameron Lowe (RP) free agent to Giants
Eric O'Flaherty (RP) free agent to Athletics
Christian Martinez (RP) released
Luis Ayala (RP) free agent to Nationals
Winter Headlines: 
The Roads out of town are crowded but few people are taking the road in. (The Braves lost several key players but don't make any major additions).
Freeman is anything but free for the Braves. (Freddie Freeman signs long term deal with team record amount)
What to Expect?:
The Braves had a great start to last season, sprinting out of the gate to a 15-5 record.  They slowed down towards the middle of the season but picked up again towards the end, running away with the Eastern Division.  They struggled in the playoffs against a strong Dodgers team ending a disappointing season.    The Braves return a largely changed team and hope to get more out of the moves they made last off season.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
The Braves organization has been one of the most consistently competitive teams over the last 20+ years but have only one World Series title to show for it.  The team became an overnight success in 1991 and hard luck losers in the 1991 and 1992 World Series.  The team made 13 straight post season appearances and won only one World Series.  The team has built a new core group of young players and are set to make another long term run.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Braves Fans Want?:
The Braves have lost several players.  The two major losses are Tim Hudson, the veteran leader of the pitching staff, and Brian McCann, the veteran All Star Catcher.  The Braves still have a hole at second base (Dan Uggla has struggled since signing a big contract) and face questions of effectiveness with Gattis behind the plate and B.J. Upton in center.  The biggest question is the rotation.  Losing Hudson and Maholm, the two veteran leaders, could lead to a big drop off in the win column.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Justin Upton got off to an amazing start last year and was a big reason for the quick start of the team.  He was not able to keep that pace (no one could ever be expected to keep that pace for a whole season) and fell back to an average season.  You can expect Upton to be a big contributor to any success the Braves might have but don't expect him to win an MVP.
Expect Great Things From:
Jason Heyward has only been in the league for a few short years but they have been some truly great years.  Heyward has improved continuously and even continued to hit after his frightful injury last year.  Heyward is one of the best hitters in the game and Braves fans will hopefully enjoy watching him play for years to come.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Dan Uggla has struggled since joining the Braves, although he has had a few shining moments.  His numbers and production dropped enough last year that he was left off the post season roster.  Uggla has two years left on his contract but how long can the Braves keep him if his numbers don't improve?
Prediction: 2nd place in NL East


Philadelphia Phillies
Who's New: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Reid Brignac (SS) free agent from Yankees,
Wil Nieves (C) free agent from Diamondbacks, 
Lou Marson (C) free agent from Indians, 
OUTFIELDERS
Marlon Byrd (OF)free agent from Pirates,
Clete Thomas (OF) free agent from Twins,
Jeff Manship (OF) free agent from Rockies,
Dave Sappelt (OF) free agent from Cubs
STARTING PITCHERS
Roberto Hernandez (SP) free agent from Rays,
Chad Gaudin (SP) free agent from Giants
A.J. Burnett (SP) Free agent from Pirates
RELIEF PITCHERS
Shawn Camp (RP) free agent from Cubs,
Brad Lincoln (RP) trade from Blue Jays,
Sean O'Sullivan (P) free agent from Padres,
Chris Bootcheck (RP) free agent from Yankees,
Who Left: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Steve LeRud (C) free agent to Braves
Erik Kratz (C) trade to Blue Jays
Michael Martinez (IF) free agent to Pirates,
Roger Bernadina (IF) free agent to Reds
Pete Orr (IF) free agent to Brewers
OUTFIELDERS
Casper Wells (OF) free agent to Cubs,
Laynce Nix (OF) released
STARTING PITCHERS
Roy Halladay (SP) retired, 
John Lannan (SP) free agent to Mets
Zach Miner (SP) free agent to Mariners
RELIEF PITCHERS 
J.C. Ramirez (RP) free agent to Indians,
Chad Durbin (RP) released
Winter Headlines:  
Is the window closed?
No Halladay. No Chance?
What to Expect?:
What was once a team on the verge of a dynasty is now on the verge of becoming a collection of relics.  Although Utley had another strong season, 2013 was a disaster for this team.  Halladay, Ruiz and Howard all missed time and the Phils never were really in the race.  Phillies fans may get one last push out of this aging group but don't count on it.  Utley and Hamels have already missed time this spring.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
Phillies fans are heading into the tail end of the Golden Age of Phillies baseball.  For a team that has been around since the birth of the National League it seems odd to say it but the last ten years have clearly been the best period of the franchise's history.  As Utley, Rollins, Howard, Hamels, Ruiz and Lee age it would be nice to see some of them go out with a bang.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Phillies Fans Want?:
This team is clearly on the decline and the farm system does not appear to have enough to replenish or replace the aging stars.  Hamels will not be ready for opening day and Utley is still having injury issues. If the Phillies are not in contention for a playoff spot by the trading deadline some of the veteran pieces may be moved.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Marlon Byrd did a lot to help the Pirates reach the playoffs but Byrd has struggled for several seasons leading up to last year.  Byrd certainly may have an impact in Philadelphia but don't expect him to lead the Phillies to the World Series.
Expect Great Things From:
Chase Utley is clearly one of the greatest Phillies to ever play the game.  Utley may not be able to lead the Phillies to the World Series but Phillies fans can expect to see Utley perform like a future Hall of Famer for as long as his body holds out.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Jimmy Rollins has been the leader of the Phillies team since he entered the league in 2000.  Rollins has given Phillies fans memories that will be talked about for generations but as he gets older the chances for him to make more memories of that level decreases. How much longer can Rollins play?
Prediction:3rd place in NL East


New York Mets
Who's New:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Tyler Teagarden (C) free agent from Orioles
OUTFIELDERS
Chris Young (OF) free agent from A's,
Curtis Granderson (OF) free agent from Yankees,
STARTING PITCHERS
Bartolo Colon (SP) free agent from Athletics,
John Lannan (SP) free agent from Phillies
RELIEF PITCHERS
Kyle Farnsworth (RP) free agent from Pirates
Jose Valverde (RP) free agent from Tigers
Who Left:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Justin Turner (IF) free agent to Dodgers
OUTFIELDERS
Jordany Valdespino (OF) free agent to Marlins
Rick Ankiel (OF) retired
STARTING PITCHERS
 LaTroy Hawkins (SP) free agent to Rockies
Shaun Marcum (SP) free agent to Indians
Aaron Harang (SP) free agent to Indians
RELIEF PITCHERS
Greg Burke (RP) free agent to Rockies
David Aardsma (RP) free agent to Indians
Scott Atchison (RP) free agent to Indians
Tim Byrdak (RP) unsigned free agent.
Pedro Feliciano (RP) unsigned free agent
Frank Francisco (RP) unsigned free agent
Winter Headlines: 
With singing of Colon and Granderson which direction is this team headed?
What to Expect?:
Mets fans can be happy that the team seems to be improving and building a strong foundation on young players like Matt Harvey and Travis d'Arnaud but don't expect the playoffs this year.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
Mets fans have seen this team struggle in recent years.  The ownership group has been stuck with money problems that hampered the rebuilding process. The team seems to have turned a corner and are heading towards building a strong foundation.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Mets Fans Want?:
Adding Granderson and Colon will definitely help the team improve but there are still a lot of holes (specifically at Catcher until d'Arnaud fully develops and the middle infield).  The Mets are moving in the right direction but they may still be a few years away.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Curtis Granderson has been an American League superstar for nearly a decade but as we saw with B.J. Upton in Atlanta last year there can still sometimes be an adjustment period when switching leagues.  Granderson should still be productive in the NL but don't expect him to spark a playoff run, especially with the lack of support in the lineup.
Expect Great Things From:
David Wright is truly a great player.  He has suffered with the Mets organization for his entire career. Wright will continue to be a great player, and may even benefit from the presence of Granderson.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Ike Davis has shown flashes of great play but his inconsistency has landed him in the dog house with the Mets front office.  He has been the subject of several trade rumors over the last few months and if he is unable to fulfill his potential he may be playing somewhere else soon.
Prediction: 4th Place in NL East.


Miami Marlins
Who's New:
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Jarod Saltalamachia (C) free agent from Red Sox,
Garrett Jones (1B) free agent from Pirates,
Jordany Valdespino (IF) free agent from Mets
Ty Wigginton (IF) free agent from Cardinals
Jeff Baker (IF) free agent from Rangers
OUTFIELDERS
 Brian Bogosevich (OF) trade from Cubs,
Reed Johnson (OF) free agent from Braves
STARTING PITCHERS
RELIEF PITCHERS
Carter Capps (RP) trade from Mariners
Rodriguez Henry Alberto (RP) free agent from Cubs
Carlos Marmol (RP) free agent from Dodgers
Chaz Roe (RP) free agent from Rangers
Who Left:
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Chris Valaika (IF)free agent to Cubs,
 Logan Morrison (1B) trade to Mariners,
Miguel Oliva (C) free agent to Dodgers
Koyie Hill (C) free agent to Marlins
Casey Kotchman (1B) released
OUTFIELDERS
Justin Ruggiano (OF) trade to Cubs,
Chris Coughlan (OF) free agent to Cubs
Matt Diaz (OF) retired
Austin Kearns (OF) unsigned free agent
STARTING PITCHERS
RELIEF PITCHERS
Zach Phillips (RP) free agent to Japan,
Chad Qualls (RP) free agent to Astros,
Ryan Webb (RP) free agent to Orioles,
Duane Below (RP) free agent to Tigers
John Maine (RP) unsigned free agent
What to Expect?:
With the exception of Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez there is little talent on this team.  Last year was said to be Stanton's audition for the trade deadline but injuries and a slow first half kept Stanton in Miami.  There is little chance that this year will turn out better and more likely could be worse than last year.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
While the ownership group has appeared to have betrayed the fan base the players are still giving a full effort.  For players stuck in Miami it is a sad season knowing that there is little chance of winning and little support from the front office.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Marlins Fans Want?:
There is little talent on this team and little support from the front office.  Suffice it to say there is very little chance of competing this year or in the near future.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Jose Fernandez won the rookie of the year award last year and should be able to continue his success but don't expect him to lead this team out of the cellar. There is little talent behind him in the rotation and the bullpen is shaky enough that he may often lose games that he should win.
Expect Great Things From:
Giancarlo Stanton, if healthy, has the chance to be a special player.  It would be helpful if he had some bigger bats in the lineup but regardless he should impress the Miami fans.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Rafael Furcal has been one of the best Shortstops in the league for nearly a decade, though he rarely gets credit.  For years with the Dodgers and later a few years in St.Louis, Furcal was the spark that ignited the offense on multiple playoff teams.  Unfortunately, Furcal does not have the talent around him in Miami that it would take to ignite a playoff run in Miami.
Prediction: 5th Place in NL East

*-Please be aware that these predictions are based on the rosters as set in the middle of February.  There are still several key free agents unsigned which could alter these previews.  Also, injuries during spring training could alter my outlook.  Check back next week for the AL Central Preview and continue following to see my final predictions at the start of the season.


TRIVIA QUESTION:
Jose Fernandez of the Marlins won the 2013 Rookie of the Year.  Since the creation of the National League East in 1969, how many times has the Rookie of the Year winner come from the National League East (include Jose Fernandez)?

Answer to Last Week's Trivia Question:
The American League West has produced a large number of Cy Young Winners starting with Jim Perry of the Twins in 1970 and Vida Blue of the A's in 1971. Here are the rest:
Catfish Hunter (A's) 1974
LaMar Hoyt (White Sox)1983
Bret Saberhagen (Royals) 1985
Frank Viola (Twins) 1988
Bret Saberhagen (Royals) 1989
Bob Welch (A's) 1990
Dennis Eckersley (A's) 1992
Jack McDowell (White Sox) 1993
Randy Johnson (Mariners) 1995
Barry Zito (A's) 2002
Bartolo Colon (Angels) 2005
Felix Hernandez (Mariners) 2010

Saturday, March 1, 2014

2014 American League West Preview

***The Division Preview that follows is not betting advice in any way shape or form.  Please do not bet any money based in any part on these predictions.***


Don't forget to check out the American League East and American League Central Previews and check back next week for the National League East Preview. 



Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim:
Who's New:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
David Freese (3B) trade from Cardinals,
John McDonald (IF) free agent from Red Sox
Yorvit Torrealba (C) free agent from Rockies
OUTFIELDERS
Raul Ibanez (OF) free agent from Mariners,
Brennan Bosch (OF) free agent from Yankees
Chad Tracy (OF) free agent from Nationals
STARTING PITCHERS
Tyler Skaags (SP) trade from Diamondbacks, 
RELIEF PITCHERS
Wade LeBlanc (RP) from Houston,
Chris Volstad (RP) from Rockies,
Joe Smith (RP) free agent from Indians,
Frenando Salas (RP) trade from Cardinals,
Hector Santiago (RP) trade from White Sox,
Clay Repada (RP) free agent from Indians
Brandon Lyon (RP) free agent from Red Sox

Who Left:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Chris Nelson (3B) free agent to Reds
OUTFIELDERS
Peter Bourjos (CF)  trade to Cardinals,
Mark Trumbo (DH/OF) trade to the Diamondbacks,
Brad Hawpe (OF) released
STARTING PITCHERS
Jason Vargas (SP) free agent to Royals,
Jerome Williams (SP) free agent to Astros
Barry Enright (SP) free agent to Phillies
Tommy Hanson (SP) free agent to Rangers
RELIEF PITCHERS
Daniel Stange (RP) free agent to Nationals
Robert Coello (RP) free agent to Yankees
Juan Gutierrez (RP) free agent to Giants
Tommy Hanson (RP) released
Ryan Madson (RP) unsigned free agent
Scott Cousins (RP) free agent to Red Sox
Winter Headlines: 
New coaching staff: Don Baylor, Gary DiSarcina.
Pujols says ankle is 99.9 percent healthy.
Trout best player in the league?
Rebuilt bull pen.
Mark Mulder looks good in comeback attempt until injury ends experiment.
What to Expect?:
People in southern California are frustrated.  The Angels paid big money for C.J. Wilson and Pujols in 2012 and for Hamilton in 2013.  Add to that the spectacular additions of young talent Peter Bourjos, Mark Trumbo and Mike Trout and theoretically this should be a World Series contender every year.  Instead, Trumbo and Bourjos are gone and the Angels are on the verge of losing their manager and General Manager.  The addition of Angels legends Don Baylor and Gary DiSarcina to the coaching staff may help take some pressure off of Scioscia and a healthy Pujols and Weaver should play a big part as well.  If the revamped bullpen can support closer Ernesto Frieri this team may reach their potential.  Although the top three teams in this division are very close all three have pitching issues and the Angels seem to have the offense that will get them past the pitching issues.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
The perception is that this is an underachieving, over paid group of guys.  Realistically, the payroll is high but these are professional guys who have suffered through difficult injuries and have fought hard to come up just short several years in a row.  Each year they seem to get off to a slow start and have bullpen troubles that put them far enough behind that they can't catch up.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Angels Fans Want?:
The Angels have added Raul Ibanez to the outfield for some insurance.  Alberto Callaspo had been a solid third baseman for several years in Anaheim but they have upgraded with David Freese. The problem, as it has been the last three years, is the bullpen.  The pitching staff has been the big reason for the struggles in the big A and although it has been greatly revamped for the upcoming season there are still major questions.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Josh Hamilton's numbers were down greatly from his days in Texas.  If we're being honest the season was a bit of a disaster for him.  The more he struggled the harder he seemed to work and the worse the season got.  The stories this winter are that Hamilton is working hard and has refocused on training and is ready for a big season, though he is already injured this spring and may miss up to two weeks.  That being said, don't expect 40 Home Runs and 120 RBI's but 20-25 Home Runs and 90-100 RBI is a reasonable expectation.
Expect Great Things From:
Albert Pujols, according to most people, has been a disappointment for the first two years of his big contract.  In reality it is a false perception. True, his first month of 2012 was a slow month but Pujols greatly improved over the rest of the season.  Although the team did not reach the playoffs it was largely due to the bullpen and not Pujols.  Albert's numbers were down greatly last year but Pujols was trying to play through a major foot injury that was clearly effecting him.  At times it appeared to be painful for Pujols to even jog from the dug out to first base.  After a surgery to repair the foot and an off season program expect Pujols to come back strong.
Prediction:1st in AL West

Oakland Athletics
Who's New?: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Nick Punto (IF) from Dodgers,
Fernando Abad (IF) free agent from Nationals,
OUTFIELDERS
Craig Gentry (OF) trade from Rangers,
Sam Fuld (OF) free agent from Rays
STARTING PITCHERS
Philip Humber (SP) free agent from Astros,
Scott Kazmir (SP) free agent from Indians,
Josh Lindblom (SP) trade from Rangers,
Drew Pomeranz (SP) trade from Rockies
RELIEF PITCHERS
Luke Gregerson (RP) trade from Padres,
Jim Johnson (RP) trade from Orioles,
Eric O'Flaherty (RP) free agent from Braves
Who Left?: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Jemile Weeks (2B) trade to Orioles, 
Kurt Suzuki (C) free agent to Twins
Scott Sizemore (2B) free agent to Yankees
OUTFIELDERS
Chris Young (OF) free agent to Mets,
Michael Choice (OF) trade from Rangers,
STARTING PITCHERS
Bartolo Colon (P) free agent to Mets,
Brett Anderson (SP) trade to Rockies,
RELIEF PITCHERS
Seth Smith (RP) trade to Padres,
Jerry Blevins (RP) trade to Nationals,
Hideki Okajima (RP) free agent to Japan,
Grant Balfour (RP) free agent to Rays
Pedro Figueroa (RP) released
Chris Resop (RP) free agent to Royals
Pat Neshek (RP) free agent to Cardinals
Winter Headlines:
Retooled Pitching Staff.
What to Expect?:
The A's and Billy Beane have surprised people two years in a row.  In 2012 they shocked the Rangers by winning the division on the last day with a budget team.  They retooled the team for 2013 and surprised everyone again.  For 2014 they have again revamped the team.  Expectations should be tempered as some of the new acquisitions, like Scott Kazmir, Jim Johnson and Craig Gentry have had major ups and downs in their career.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
Billy Beane always seems to find a way to win on a small budget.  Anyone who roots for a team that is not in a major market should be rooting for this group.  While the Rangers and Angels (and in some cases even the Mariners) seem to be spending at will, the A's are winning the old fashioned way.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Athletics Fans Want?:
As good as the team has been the last few years, they have not exactly dominated the west.  The Angels truly should have won this division the last three years and the A's allowed the Rangers to hang around late in the season both seasons before winning the division late.  With a retooled pitching staff there are still major questions.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Jim Johnson was a big acquisition from the Orioles.  Johnson was an All Star and nearly perfect when the Orioles made the playoffs in 2012 but struggled at times in 2013.  He will be replacing Grant Balfour, who played a major part in Oakland's success the last few years.  Don't expect Johnson to dominate the way Balfour did.
Expect Great Things From:
There was a perception last year that Yoenis Cespedes had a big fall off when his average dropped from .290 to .240.  True, the average was a big drop due mostly to injuries, but despite the low average, Cespedes managed to improve in Home Runs and Runs Scored and was only 2 RBI behind his rookie pace.  A healthy Cespedes could compete for an MVP.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Scott Kazmir has had an interesting career.  He was involved in a trade from the Mets to the Rays that basically got Jim Duquette fired as GM in New York. The pressure on Kazmir to become the ace of the Rays staff were tremendous and as the Rays went from joke to contender, Kazmir played a big part.  When he was traded to the Angels, it was expected that he would be the final piece for an Angels dynasty.  That quickly turned into a 9-15 season followed by stints in the minors and a year in Colorado.  Last year Kazmir went 10-9 for an Indian playoff team but it was hardly what was expected of Kazmir when he entered the league.  With big playoff hopes in Oakland this year Kazmir will need to prove he can fulfill the potential that was once seen in him.
Prediction: 2nd in AL West.  American League Wild Card


Texas Rangers:
Who's New:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Prince Fielder (1b) trade from Tigers,
J. P. Arincebia (C) free agent from Blue Jays,
Brent Lillibridge (3B) free agent from Yankees,
Josh Wilson (SS) free agent from Diamondbacks,
OUTFIELDERS
Michael Choice (OF) trade from Athletics,
Kensuke Tanaka (OF) free agent from Giants,
Shin Soo Choo (OF) free agent from Reds,
STARTING PITCHERS
Tommy Hanson (SP) free agent from Angels
RELIEF PITCHERS
Jose Contreras (P) free agent from Red Sox,
Justin Germano (RP) free agent from Blue Jays,
Mike Mikolas (RP) trade from Pirates
Pedro Figueroa (RP) waiver claim from Athletics
Daniel Bard (RP) free agent from Cubs
Who Left:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Brendan Harris (IF) free agent to Dodgers,
Lance Berkman (DH/1B) retired
Jeff Baker (IF) free agent to Marlins
Ian Kinsler (2B) trade to Tigers,
A.J. Pierzynski (C) free agent to Red Sox,
Chris McGuinness (IF) trade to Pirates
OUTFIELDERS
David Murphy (OF) free agent to Indians,
Craig Gentry (OF) trade to A's,
Nelson Cruz (OF) free agent to Orioles
STARTING PITCHERS
Josh Lindblom (SP) trade to A's,
Matt Garza (SP) free agent to Brewers
RELIEF PITCHERS
Joe Nathan (RP) free agent to Tigers,
Travis Blackley (RP) unsigned free agent.
Winter Headlines:  
Profar or Andrus?  Answered by trade of Kinsler
Fielder impact over Kinsler tenure.
Rangers show lack of loyalty again.
Choo chooses Rangers
What to Expect?:
What to expect is a great question.  The Rangers seem to surprise people one minute and disappoint people the next.  Texas lost several key players this year again (Pierzynski, Murphy, Gentry, Nathan, Cruz and Kinsler) but they made some major moves as well (Choo and Fielder).  Last year when Hamilton and Young were allowed to leave Michael Young complained that the Rangers ownership had a lack of loyalty to their players. When Kinsler was traded it appeared that Young's charges could be applied again.  Ron Washington has done a great job as manager but at what point does the ownership allow too many of their long time veteran leaders to get away?  In addition to the loss of leaders through trades and free agency there is the pitching issues.  Derek Holland, looked on as the number two starter (and was looked at as the key to the rotation) will be out until near the all star break making a questionable rotation even more of a liability.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
Ron Washington is one of the best managers in the game and he constantly has this team in contention. Like Joe Maddon in Tampa, Washington is often able to do more with less.  After surprising everyone with a 2010 World Series appearance and coming within inches of winning it all in 2011 the Rangers had a disappointing end to 2012 and 2013.  For the few who remain from those teams it would be nice to see them win.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Rangers Fans Want?:
Despite adding Fielder and Choo the Rangers may have lost too much.  It is not just the number of players that have left since the World Series appearances it is more a matter of the heart and soul that has left.  The World Series teams were led by Hamilton, Kinsler, Young, C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, Elvis Andrus, Nelson Cruz, Adrian Beltre and Cliff Lee.  Only Andrus and Beltre remain from that group.  It is true that Fielder and Choo will be strong additions but neither seems to have the leadership quality of the men who have left.  The pitching staff, past Yu Darvish, is a mess.  The team was relying heavily on  Derek Holland (who was only 10-9 in 2013) who will now be out until the All Star Break after having leg surgery and the bullpen appears to be a jigsaw puzzle with no real closer.  They will try using Neftali Feliz as closer again but the results have been hit or miss each time he tries to fill that position.  Although this is a strong team the pitching is the main reason I am picking them third.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Jurickson Profar has been pretty much anointed as the next great middle infielder.  The team even decided to move one of the faces of the franchise to allow him to play full time.  Granted it was a small sample size in 2013 but he only hit .234.  Profar will likely be much better than that small sample size (and his defense should get him consideration for a Gold Glove) but don't expect him to replace Kinsler's numbers.
Expect Great Things From:
Prince Fielder may not be the leader that Kinsler and Young were but his numbers may skyrocket in Texas.  The balls in Texas seem to fly farther faster during the summer months than in most parks and with Fielder's power you can expect his Home Run and RBI totals to soar.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Neftali Feliz has been the off and on closer for the last few years.  He was expected to contribute greatly to the Rangers last season but injuries sidelined him  for the better part of the year.  Feliz will have little time to ease back into the position as Joe Nathan has left for Detroit.  Feliz will need to be near perfect for the Rangers to compete.
Prediction: 3rd in AL West


Seattle Mariners
Who's New:
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Robinson Cano (2B) free agent from Yankees, 
Logan Morrison (1B) trade from Marlins,
John Buck (C) free agent from Pirates
OUTFIELDERS
Wilie Bloomquist (OF) free agent from Diamondbacks,
Corey Hart (OF) free agent from Brewers,
Cole Gillespie (OF) free agent from Cubs,
STARTING PITCHERS
Scott Baker (SP) free agent from Cubs
Zach Miner (SP) free agent from Phillies
RELIEF PITCHERS
Ramon Ramirez (RP) free agent from Rays
Logan Kensing (RP) free agent from Rockies
Who Left:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Henry Blanco (C) free agent to Diamondbacks,
Kendrys Morales (1B/DH)  unsigned free agent
OUTFIELDERS
Raul Ibanez (OF) free agent to Angels
Jason Bay (OF) released
Carlos Peguero (OF) trade to Royals
STARTING PITCHERS
Oliver Perez (SP) unsigned free agent
Joe Saunders (SP) unsigned free agent
RELIEF PITCHERS
Carter Capps (RP) trade to Marlins,
Winter Headlines: 
Poor Lloyd McClendon.
Cano asks for respect.  Gets money instead.
Can the top three starters lead to a surprise Mariners success.
What to Expect?:
Why do bad teams happen to good people?  Lloyd McClendon may be a good manager but it will be hard to tell.  McClendon is getting his second chance at managing and for the second time he will be taking over a team that has little chance to win.  The Mariners potentially have a great top of their rotation with Hernandez, Iwakuma and a young Taijuan Walker.  Although Iwakuma and Walker are already injured in spring training and will be out for an unknown amount of time.  These three (when healthy) should keep the Mariners in many games but the bullpen and offense may not be strong enough to win all of the games started by these three.  The Mariners spent a lot of money to get Cano from the Yankees but there is little hope that his numbers will be good enough to help this team compete with the rest of the division.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
There are some likable players on this team, like Felix Hernandez, who have been with this team for a long time and have seen some truly low times.  The Mariners often make a loud off season noise but it rarely works out for them.  The Mariners have been around since 1977 and have had very few moments to celebrate.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Mariners Fans Want?:
Although the Mariners made a big splash with Cano and some smaller ripples with signings like Corey Hart, and Logan Morrison, there is still not enough talent here to compete with the top three in this division. The strength of the team was intended to be the starting pitching with Hernandez, Iwakuma and Walker.  With Walker and Iwakuma already suffering injuries this season could  dissolve before it even starts.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Robinson Cano is a great player but there is very little support in Seattle.  With fewer big bats in the lineup it would be odd to expect the opposition to pitch to him in dangerous situations. Expect Cano to hit 20-25 Home Runs but don't expect him to raise a world series trophy in Seattle.
Expect Great Things From:
Felix Hernandez is one of the top pitchers in the league and regardless of how bad the team behind him is King Felix will always shine.  Hernandez's numbers will be great but don't expect those numbers to automatically translate into wins.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Lloyd McClendon is getting his second chance to manage but unfortunately he is getting a well below average team.  McClendon is a good manager but often managers who lead bad teams don't get many chances to prove they can manage.
Prediction:4th in AL West


Houston Astros


Who's New:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Jesus Guzman (1B) trade from Padres, 
Cesar Izturis (SS) free agent from Reds
OUTFIELDERS
Dexter Fowler (OF) trade from Rockies,
Adron Chambers (OF) free agent from Cardinals
STARTING PITCHERS
Scott Feldman (SP) free agent from Orioles,
Jerome Williams (SP) free agent from Angels
RELIEF PITCHERS
Anthony Bass (RP) trade from Padres,
Pete Moylan (RP) free agent from Dodgers,
Chad Qualls (RP) free agent from Marlins,
Matt Albers (RP) free agent from Indians,
Jesse Crain (RP) free agent from Rays
Who Left:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Brandon Laird (IF) free agent to Royals,
Matt Pagnozzi (C) free agent to Brewers, 
Ryan Jackson (IF) trade to Padres,
OUTFIELDERS
Brandon Barnes (OF) trade to Rockies
Trevor Crowe (OF) free agent to Tigers
STARTING PITCHERS
Philip Humber (SP) to Athletics,
Jordan Lyles (SP) trade to Rockies,
Eric Bedard (SP)free agent to Rays
RELIEF PITCHERS
Wade LeBlanc (RP) to Angels,
Edgar Gonzalez (RP) free agent to Reds
What to Expect?:
The Astros are making efforts to improve. They have upgraded their bullpen with Pete Moylan, Chad Qualls and Matt Albers.  They have improved their offense and defense with Dexter Fowler and they are working hard to improve the team.  Listening to their first spring training game the other night, the Astros announcers talked about the improved attitude this year.  There is much more optimism and a feeling of a light at the end of the tunnel.  The realistic truth is they are probably a few years away from competing for a division or wild card spot but their improvement makes this division the toughest in the AL.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
The Astros organization has come close to winning it all several times but they have rarely, in their brief history, been this far from competition.  It would be nice to see them surprise some people for the benefit of some players who are under rated stars.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Astros Fans Want?:
The team has improved from two years ago to last year and the improvement should continue this year but truth be told it is not enough at this point to compete.  The offense and bullpen have been improved but the starting pitching is still atrocious.  The Astros are working on a five year plan and this year may be the tipping point to either confirm they are moving in the right direction or to tell them to scrap it all and start over.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Dexter Fowler is easily the biggest addition the Astros have made but there is not enough in the lineup or rotation to expect Fowler to make a drastic impact.  Fowler will definitely improve the team and will likely benefit Jose Altuve in the lineup but Fowler will not lead this team to the playoffs.  At least not this year.
Expect Great Things From:
Jose Altuve is probably the most under rated second baseman in the league.  He may not have huge power numbers (he has only 14 Home Runs in three years) and his strike outs are a bit higher than you would normally like for a top of the lineup guy but Altuve is on the verge of becoming a great player.  Expect Altuve to hit near .300, steal 30 bases and hit about 25-30 doubles.  With some extra help in the lineup from Fowler, Altuve could take the next step in becoming a star in the league.
Prediction:5th place in AL West

*-Please be aware that these predictions are based on the rosters as set at the end of February.  There are still several key free agents unsigned which could alter these previews.  Also, injuries during spring training could alter my outlook.  Check back next week for the NL East Preview and continue following to see my final predictions at the start of the season.  


TRIVIA QUESTION:
The Angels, Athletics and Rangers have great offenses but their pitching staffs leave a lot to be desired.  Seattle has a great top of their rotation but little offensive support.  Pitching clearly is the key in this division.  How many American League West pitchers have won the Cy Young Award?

Answer to Last Week's Question:
Congratulations to TJD for last week's trivia question.
The American League Central division was founded in 1994 and contained the White Sox, Twins, Royals, Indians and Brewers.  When the league expanded to add the Diamondbacks and Devil Rays in 1998 there was a need to move one American League team to the National League to avoid having uneven numbers in each league.  The Brewers were moved to the National League Central.  The Tigers moved from the American League East to the American League Central.  The division has remained in that format since then.

Saturday, February 22, 2014

2014 American League Central Preview

***The Division Preview that follows is not betting advice in any way shape or form.  Please do not bet any money based in any part on these predictions.***


Detroit Tigers
Who's New?: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Ian Kinsler (2B) trade from Rangers,
Steve Lombardozi (2B) trade from Nationals,
OUTFIELDERS
Rajai Davis (OF) free agent from Blue Jays,
Ezequiel Carrera (OF) free agent from Indians
Trevor Crowe (OF) free agent from Astros
STARTING PITCHERS
None
RELIEF PITCHERS
Ian Krol (RP) trade from Nationals,
Joe Nathan (RP) free agent from Rangers,
Eduardo Sanchez (RP) free agent from Cubs,
Joba Chamberlain (RP) free agent from Yankees,
Duane Below (RP) free agent from Marlins,
Who Left?:  
CATCHER/INFIELDERS
Prince Fielder (1B) trade to Rangers,
Brayan Pena (C) free agent to Reds,
Jhonny Peralta (SS) free agent to Cardinals,
Omar Infante (2B) free agent to Royals,
Ramon Santiago (IF) free agent to Reds
OUTFIELDERS
None
STARTING PITCHERS
Doug Fister (SP) trade to Nationals,
Jair Jurrjens (SP) free agent to Orioles
RELIEF PITCHERS
Jose Veras (RP) free agent to Cubs,
Joaquin Benoit (RP) free agent to Padres,
Jose Valverde (RP) free agent to Mets
Jeremy Bonderman (RP) unsigned free agent
Octavio Dotel (RP) unsigned free agent
Winter Headlines:
Brad Ausmus replaces Leyland;
Scherzer wins Cy Young becomes trade bait.
Cabrera wins second straight MVP,
Fielder unhappy, replaced by Kinsler.
What to Expect?:
The Tigers were clearly the dominant team in this division.  There has been little competition for the division lead over the last few years (although the White Sox did put up a great fight in 2012).  Yet, for some reason, they don't seem to be able to take that final step.  Last year was unfortunate.  Miguel Cabrera suffered through injuries which slowed him in the post season and Prince Fielder appeared to be pressing to create the offense that Cabrera could not create.  The result was another disappointing end to the season.  Jim Leyland is gone as are Fielder, Omar Infante and Doug Fister.  Justin Verlander injured a core muscle in offseason workouts and required surgery.  With new leadership and Joe Nathan at closer, expect the Tigers to contend yet again but there are some serious concerns with this team starting with the rotation, which has been the foundation of this current run of success.  With Fister gone and Verlander dealing with a potential health issue Scherzer has more pressure than ever to be the team ace.  Verlander is said to be ahead of schedule in recovery but he could be pushing himself to return knowing how close this team is and how important his presence is.  There is a potential that this could turn into a nagging injury.  Any further health issues in the rotation could lead this team to have some major issues.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
This team has been amazingly close over the last 8 years.  Some of these players, like Verlander, have been with the Tigers organization through some painful losses.  It would be nice to see this group finally get over the hump.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Tigers Fans Want?:
The problems entering this year appear to be the same problems they had last year (and a few extra).  The bullpen is much improved but there are always questions about how long Joe Nathan can last.  Left field is still questionable with Andy Dirks and Rajai Davis.  Catcher is still a question with Alex Avila and the loss of Brayan Pena makes Avila the only option.  Verlander may not be ready for opening day after severely injuring an abdominal muscle and by trading Fister, the Tigers severely lost pitching depth.  There are questions about how Ausmus will impact the team as the new manager.  So although they are still the favorite in this division they have some serious questions and don't be shocked if Kansas City challenges them for the division lead.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Joe Nathan is a very good pitcher and has been for a long time starting with the Twins, followed by  time with the Rangers.  He has had several arm surgeries and had some tough periods over the last few years.  That being said, Nathan has had more good times than bad in his career.  You can expect Nathan to improve what was the Tigers' biggest issue last year, however, don't expect him to be a miracle cure.
Expect Great Things From:
Miguel Cabrera is a special player.  Even with serious nagging injuries last season he was able to contend for the triple crown and lead the Tigers to the brink of a World Series.  Cabrera is one of those players that comes along once in a generation.  At this point in his career he is clearly the top player in the league.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Torii Hunter will turn 39 near the All Star Break.  Hunter is one of the great ambassadors of the game.  He is one of the good guys and one of the most respected players in the game.  Since 1997 Hunter has given his all in every game he has played and has impacted the community in Minnesota, Anaheim and now Detroit.  He has been one of the best players in the league and has accomplished nearly everything in his career except win a World Series.  As the Tigers continue to try to take that final step the question always remains the same: how quickly will the window close on the Tigers and can they win it before Hunter walks away?
Prediction: 1st in AL Central





Kansas City Royals:
Who's New:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Brandon Laird (IF) free agent from Astros,
Ramon Hernandez (C) free agent from Blue Jays
Omar Infante (2B) free agent from Tigers, 
OUTFIELDERS
Norichika Aoki (OF) trade from Brewers, 
Melky Mesa (OF) free agent from Yankees,
Carlos Peguero (OF) trade from Mariners
STARTING PITCHERS
John Rauch (SP) free agent from Orioles
Jason Vargas (SP) free agent from Angels,
RELIEF PITCHERS
P.J. Walters (RP) free agent from Twins,
Chris Resop (RP) free agent from Athletics
Who Left:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
George Kottaras (C) traded to Cubs,
Irving Falu (SS) free agent to Brewers,
Jamey Carroll (3B) free agent to Nationals
Chris Getz (2B) free agent to Blue Jays
Carlos Pena (1B) free agent to Angels
Miguel Tejada (SS) unsigned free agent
Emilio Bonifacio (IF) released
OUTFIELDERS
None
STARTING PITCHERS
Ervin Santana (SP) unsigned free agent
RELIEF PITCHER
Will Smith (RP) trade to Brewers,
Winter Headlines:  
Wil Meyers wins Rookie of the Year while Shields struggled.
Slow 2013 start leads to disappointment despite strong finish.
What to Expect?:
Kansas City was excited last year and if it weren't for a slow start their high hopes may have come true.  If they can get consistency from their starters and get off to a decent start the Royals may be able to finish what they started last year.  The Tigers are not the sure thing they were last year and Cleveland is not as strong pitching wise as they were last year.  Kansas City has a legitimate chance to win this division if they avoid the slow start of last year.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
The Royals are the opposite of the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers.  Kansas City has worked on building their team from the minors up.  They have home grown talent like Moustakis, Butler, Hosmer and Cain.  In an age of teams built to resemble Super Teams, it would be nice to see the teams built like the old days succeed.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Royals Fans Want?:
As good as this team could have been last year (or the year before for that matter) they have consistently under achieved over the last few years.  They will need a full team effort to make it to the next step.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Jason Vargas had a few average seasons in Seattle.  After a 14-11, 3.85 ERA 2012, Vargas got a big one year deal from Anaheim and the Angels expected the stronger offense behind him to translate into a higher win total.  It didn't.  A poor Angels team effort, a few injuries and a 9-8 record led to disappointment and Vargas's exit from town.  There will be considerably less pressure on Vargas in KC, similar to the lower expectations he experienced in Seattle, but don't expect Vargas to become an ace.
Expect Great Things From:
James Shields earned the name "Big Game James" in Tampa Bay for a reason.  He was generally acknowledged as the leader of the Rays.  He pitched well last year  and often was a hard luck loser.  His 13-9 record was deceptive as he pitched well enough to win several games he ended up losing early in the year.  If Shields is able to win the close games he lost last year, the Royals can likely punch their post season tickets.
Prediction: 2nd place in AL Central.  AL Wild Card



Cleveland Indians:
Who's New:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
David Adams (IF) free agent from Yankees,
Elliott Johnson (IF) free agent from Braves
OUTFIELDERS
David Murphy (OF) free agent from Rangers,
Jeff Francoeur (OF) free agent from Giants
STARTING PITCHERS
Shaun Marcum (SP) free agent from Mets,
Aaron Harang (SP) free agent from Mets
RELIEF PITCHERS
Colt Hynes (RP) trade from Padres,
J.C. Ramirez (RP) free agent from Phillies,
Mike Zagurski (RP) free agent from Yankees,
John Axford (RP) free agent from Cardinals,
Josh Outman (RP) trade from Rockies
David Aardsma (RP) free agent from Yankees
Scott Atchison (RP) free agent from Mets
Who Left: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Lou Marson (C) free agent to Phillies,
Omir Santos (C) free agent to Pirates
Kelly Shoppach (C) unsigned free agent
OUTFIELDERS
Drew Stubbs (OF) trade to Rockies,
Jason Kubel (OF) free agent to Twins,
Ezequiel Carrera  (OF) free agent to Tigers
STARTING PITCHERS
Scott Kazmir (SP) free agent to A's,
Ubaldo Jimenez (SP) free agent to Orioles
RELIEF PITCHERS
Joe Smith (RP) free agent to Angels,
Matt Albers (RP) free agent to Houston,
Chris Perez (RP) free agent to Dodgers,
Clay Repada (RP) free agent to Angels
Brett Myers (RP) realeased
Rich Hill (RP) free agent to Red Sox
Winter Headlines:  
Francona wins Manager of the Year over Farrell.
Carlos Santana rumored to move to third, oddly all back up catchers sign elsewhere
Masterson masterful, Jimenez and Kazmir leave the reservation
What to Expect?:
Terry Francona is clearly one of the best managers of this generation.  He took a Philadelphia Phillies team that was short on talent to the brink of a division title in 2001. He took the Red Sox from the lovable losers to the dominant team in the league. He took the Cleveland Indians from a struggling, underachieving team to a playoff berth in one year.  The Indians have lost some talent but expect Francona to have this team fighting for a playoff spot.  The problem is there may not be enough pitching here to get the success they saw last year.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
Over this offseason I have had the opportunity to watch some old games available on line.  Two of the games I have watched were Game 6 of the 1995 World Series and Game 7 of the 1997 World Series.  In both games, Cleveland's hopes were crushed when it appeared that they were on the brink of success.  In 2007 the Indians led the Red Sox three games to one in the ALCS when the Red Sox made a miraculous come back.  The Indians history (with the exception of 1920 and 1948) is one of near misses.  It would be nice to see the tribe come out on top after years of close calls.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Indians Fans Want?:
The Indians were able to win despite a shaky pitching staff for most of the year.  Justin Masterson was spectacular but Jimenez was inconsistent and there was little behind them.  The Indians have lost Scott Kazmir to the A's and Jimenez to the Orioles and have no one at this point to replace them.  The starting rotation could be the achilles heel.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
David Murphy was a strong signing by the Indians. He is a good outfielder and should fit in nicely in their lineup.  He could be a nice complement to Michael Bourn at the top of the lineup but his power numbers are not eye popping and his average is usually in the mid .200's. Murphy is a good player but don't expect him to be the piece that puts Cleveland over the top.
Expect Great Things From:
Asdrubal Cabrerra had an off season last year but he is one of the more under rated Shortstops in the league. Cabrerra's numbers were down but he still contributed greatly to the success of the team.  Expect Cabrera to have a bounce back year and help this team stay in contention.
Is This His Last Chance?:
The Indians took a chance in signing John Axford.  Although he had a decent end to the season with the Cardinals, Axford has not been the same pitcher he was when he helped the Brewers reach the NLCS.  If he does not find a way to regain that effectiveness he may not have another chance to close.
Prediction:3rd in AL Central





Minnesota Twins:
Who's New:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Kurt Suzuki (C) free agent from Athletics
OUTFIELDERS
Jason Kubel (OF) free agent from Indians,
STARTING PITCHERS
Rickey Nolasco (SP) free agent from Dodgers,
Phil Hughes (SP) free agent from Yankees,
Kris Johnson (SP) trade from Pirates
RELIEF PITCHERS
Matt Guerier (RP) free agent from Cubs
Who Left:  
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
OUTFIELDERS
Clete Thomas (OF) free agent to to Phillies,
STARTING PITCHERS
Liam Hendricks (SP) waiver claim by Cubs,
RELIEF PITCHERS
Cody Eppley (RP) free agent to Pirates,
Pedro Hernandez (RP) free agent to Rockies,
P.J. Walters (RP) free agent to Royals,
Duke Welker (RP) traded to Pirates
Winter Headlines: 
Joe Mauer moves to 1B
Pitching staff completely rebuilt
What to Expect?:
Twins fans certainly should expect improvement.  For one thing the rotation is set this year, while last year it was up in the air from day one.  Improvement and a vision for the future are the keys for this Twins team. A playoff berth is probably a very long shot but a third place finish and a winning record is probably a better goal.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
There's an old saying that class shows.  The Twins certainly fit that saying.  This organization, dating back to their days in Washington, have always had a classy reputation.  If nothing else you can look at the key players in franchise history: Killebrew, Puckett, Viola, Kaat, Grant, Mauer and Mourneau.  Or you can look at the two men who have led this team for the last 30 years: Kelly and Gardenhire.  I am not a Twins fan but with the class that this organization always displays it is hard to root against them.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way Twins Fans Want?:
The Twins have certainly done what they can to add veteran leadership to the pitching rotation with Hughes and Nolasco to join Pelfrey.  The Twins are certainly an improved team but with Cleveland, Kansas City and Detroit in this division it would be hard to imagine the Twins finishing in a playoff spot this year.  This team has a very strong farm system with many players a few years away from contributing.  This could be a strong team in the future, but this year would be a surprise.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Phil Hughes has played with some legends in New York and the expectations for Hughes when he came to the big leagues were tremendous.  He has not lived up to the expectations, likely because the expectations were unfairly high.  Hughes is a very good pitcher but he had a terrible 2013 (4-14, 5.19 ERA) and he is certainly better than that.  Expect Hughes to help improve the Twins staff but don't expect 20 wins..
Expect Great Things From:
Joe Mauer is the face of this franchise and has been for several years.  If you had to choose a Mount Rushmore of Minnesota Twins it would probably be Harmon Killebrew, Kirby Puckett, Jim Kaat and Joe Mauer.  Mauer will be moving to first base this season to avoid the daily pounding his body takes when catching.  Expect the health benefits to help translate into better offensive numbers.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Similar to Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey had high expectations when he joined the Mets in 2006.  The Mets were a strong playoff contender at the time and it was hoped he would develop into the new ace.  Instead he has struggled.  A big part of his struggles have to do with the poor teams he has played with but there is only so much blame you can shift for 7-13 and 5-13 seasons.  Pelfrey certainly has an opportunity to be the leader of this team but he may not have many chances left to prove he can do it.
Prediction:4th place in AL Central




Chicago White Sox
Free Agents:  Ramon Truncoso (RP).
Who's New: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Jose Abreu (1B) free agent,
Alex Liddi (1B) free agent from Orioles,
OUTFIELDERS
Adam Eaton (OF) trade from Diamondbacks,
Matt Davidson (OF) trade from Diamondbacks,
STARTING PITCHERS
RELIEF PITCHERS
Jairo Ascencio (RP) free agent from Orioles,
Zach Putnam (RP) free agent from Cubs,
Ronald Belisario (RP) free agent from Dodgers,
Scott Downs (RP) free agent from Braves
Mitchell Boggs (RP) free agent from Rockies
Who Left: 
CATCHERS/INFIELDERS
Travis Ishikawa (1B) free agent to Pirates,
Angel Sanchez (IF) released
Bryan Anderson (C) free agent to Reds
OUTFIELDERS
Addison Reed (OF) trade from Diamondbacks,
Dewayne Wise (OF) released
STARTING PITCHERS
Hector Santiago (SP) trade to Angels, 
Gavin Floyd (SP) free agent to Braves, 
RELIEF PITCHERS
Ramon Truoncoso (RP) unsigned free agent
Winter Headlines:  
The Big Hurt gets a big honor (Frank Thomas voted into the Hall of Fame)
What to Expect?:
It is hard to believe that this team was in first place for the greater part of the 2012 season.  Clearly the loss of Jake Peavey and A.J. Pierszynski and the under achievement of Alex Rios hurt this team last year.  They certainly are a better team by adding Adam Eaton and Jose Abreu but don't expect  this team to contend this season.
Why Should You Root for These Guys?:
Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn are veterans nearing the end of their career.  Each has made major contributions to the White Sox organization and although Konerko won a title with the 2005 White Sox, Dunn is still looking for his first ring.
Why Might This Season Not Turn Out the Way White Sox Fans Want?:
This team just doesn't have the pitching to compete in this division.  There were few improvements made to a bad team from last year while even the Twins looked to improve their staff.  This could be a very long season and may lead to a major shift in identity for the team.  This could be the last year for Dunn and Konerko.
Don't Expect Too Much From Him:
Adam Eaton came to the White Sox in a trade with the Diamondbacks.  Eaton has tremendous talent and a lot was expected from him in Arizona.  The problem is that the talent level around him in Chicago is much less than in Arizona.  He won't have the support with the White Sox that he would have enjoyed with the Diamondbacks.
Expect Great Things From:
Chris Sale is the clear ace of this team.  In fact, on most teams he would be the ace.  Although his 11-14 record was more a reflection on the team behind him, Sale had a tremendous year.  Expect Sale to continue his growth with a better season and better record.
Is This His Last Chance?:
Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko are nearing the end of their careers.  Konerko considered retirement but decided to come back for at least one more year.  At some point the Sox will need to build a new identity without Dunn and Konerko.  Sox fans should enjoy the ride while it lasts.
Prediction:5th Place in AL Central.

*-Please be aware that these predictions are based on the rosters as set in the middle of February.  There are still several key free agents unsigned which could alter these previews.  Also, injuries during spring training could alter my outlook.  Don't miss the A.L. East preview of last week.  Check back next week for the AL West Preview and continue following to see my final predictions at the start of the season.


TRIVIA QUESTION:
Major League Baseball went to the three divisional format in 1994.  Since that time the teams in the American League Central have changed slightly after expansion and realignment.  What teams have played in the American League Central?

Answer to Last Week's Trivia Question:
Major League Baseball created the American League East in 1969.  The first team from the division to win the World Series was the Orioles in 1970.  They would also win the World Series in 1983.  (That makes 2).  The Red Sox have won the World Series twice (2004 and 2007) bringing the total to 4.  The Blue Jays won back to back World Series titles in 1992 and 1993 bringing the total to 6.  The Tigers won the 1984 World Series as a member of the AL East raising the number to 7.  The Yankees have won the most World Series coming out of this division.  The pinstripes won the 1977, 1978, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2009 World Series as a member of the division doubling the number to 14 for the total answer.