Thursday, April 11, 2013

Your Guide to 42: Watching the Movie Made Easy

The movie 42 is being released on April 12 and to be honest it has been a long time since I have been this excited for a movie.  Living in the LA area and loving the history of the game as I do, obviously I have read and researched Jackie Robinson quite a bit so I am going into this movie with what I feel is a pretty good understanding of how the people listed in the cast will be portrayed as well as what the key points of the film will be.  Recently, I was discussing the film with a friend and realized that not everyone will recognize the characters or know why they are important.  My intent with this article is to give anyone who plans to see the movie a better understanding of what you will be seeing and filling in the back story to allow you to focus on the movie with a clearer understanding of who everyone is.



KEY PLOT POINTS
Based only on what I have seen in the trailers and the cast list (found on imdb) it appears that there will be a few key focuses of the movie.
  1. Jackie's life leading up to his signing with the Dodgers organization, his relationship with his wife Rachel, his relationship with Clyde Sukeforth (the scout who brought Jackie to Brooklyn) and his relationship with Branch Rickey (the Dodgers owner who decided to break the color barrier).
  2. His 1946 season with the Dodgers farm team in Montreal, his relationship with his first manager, Clay Hopper, his acceptance by the Canadian fans and his fight to deal with the resistance of the white players and fans in the minor league.
  3. A petition circulated by many of the Southern players (and some non southerners) on the Dodgers 1947 team asking Branch Rickey not to bring Jackie to the majors.  The petition, started by Outfielder Dixie Walker and signed by most of the southern players, as well as a few northerners, has become a controversy in the study of Jackie Robinson.  The petition has never been seen and some of the players accused of signing it say it never existed and several who claim it did exist say they never signed it.  In this storyline look for Pee Wee Reese and Pete Reiser, the two Dodgers stars, to refuse to sign it.
  4. The Dodgers first game of the 1947 season against the Boston Braves.
  5. The Dodgers first and second series against the St. Louis Cardinals where Enos Slaughter spiked Jackie, Joe Garagiola argued with Jackie and Stan Musial calmed Jackie down.
  6. The Dodgers first series in Philadelphia where the Phillies, led by manager Ben Chapman, brutally taunted Jackie.  This was one of the first times that the team rallied in his support.  The reaction of the Dodgers and several others nearly cost Chapman his job.
  7. The Dodgers series against the Pirates where Fritz Ostermuller threw at Jackie's head, Hank Greenberg showed strong support for Jackie and Kirby Higbe threw at Pee Wee Reese's head.
  8. The eventual acceptance and support of Jackie's teammates and Jackie's success in the league.
It does not appear, based on the list of characters, that the movie will go past the 1947 season (there is no mention of Roy Campanella, Duke Snider, Gil Hodges or Carl Erskine), however, as mentioned above this is all speculation based solely on the previews and list of characters on the IMDB page.

CHARACTERS
Following is a list of characters you will see in the move broken into five categories:  1. Jackie and his family, 2.  Dodgers Management and Personnel, 3.  Dodgers Players, 4. Other league players and personnel and 5.  Individuals not listed but likely to appear in the film:

JACKIE AND HIS FAMILY
Jackie Robinson:

Obviously Jackie Robinson is the focal point of the movie and one of the most recognizable players in the history of the game.  There will be many posts of Jackie to come (and some that have already mentioned him) but there are a few key life points that will obviously be important to know. Jackie was born January 31, 1919 in Cairo, GA.  His mother moved the family when Jackie was very young to live with her brother and his family in Pasadena, CA.  Jackie originally attended Pasadena Community College then went on to become a lettered athlete in baseball, basketball, track and All-American football star at UCLA and was the first student at the school to letter in four sports in the same year.  Jack left UCLA just before graduation and was hoping to work towards being an Athletic Director.  He went on to play professional football (not in the NFL) and ended up playing in Hawaii.  As he was returning from Hawaii after the season the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor.  Jack enlisted in the army and was in an officer training program.  While in the service he got into an argument with a white officer and was court martialed on exaggerated charges.  He was discharged, returned to the states and was offered a job playing in the negro leagues.  He was the Shortstop for the 1945 Kansas City Monarchs when he was approached by Clyde Sukeforth.

Rachel (Isum) Robinson:
Rachel Isum met Jackie Robinson when they were both students at UCLA.  Rachel was studying nursing and later went on to get a PhD in nursing becoming very successful and celebrated in the field.  Rachel and Jackie married and had a very successful marriage full of mutual love and support.  They had three children and without Rachel's support Jackie never would have succeeded in 1947.  The two were truly a team.  This is a perfect example of the saying that "behind every successful man is a successful woman".  Since Jackie's death in October 1972 Rachel has done a great job of preserving the legacy of Jackie Robinson and is often seen at events honoring his memory.

Mallie Robinson:
Mallie McGriff Robinson was one of 14 children born to Wash and Edna McGriff, slaves in the Cairo, GA area.  She married Jerry Robinson and had five children, Jackie being the youngest, and they worked as sharecroppers in Georgia.  Eventually Jerry left the family and Mallie could not afford to pay the rent on the land.  She packed up her five children and moved to live with her brother's family in Pasadena, CA.  She worked hard to support the five children and as they got older they helped support Mallie.  Her son Mack was an Olympic Athlete who finished second to Jesse Owens in the 1936 Berlin Olympics.

DODGERS MANAGEMENT/PERSONNEL
Branch Rickey:

Branch Rickey was one of the most successful executives in baseball when he signed Jackie to a professional contract.  A deeply religious man he refused to work on Sunday, even when he was a Catcher for the Yankees and later manager of the Cardinals.  Rickey often told a story of his time as the coach at Ohio Wesleyan University.  When the team tried to check into a hotel before a road game at Notre Dame, Rickey was told the team would not be accepted if they planned to check in with Charles Thomas, their African American Catcher.  Rickey was able to convince the hotel to allow them to stay as long as Thomas did not sign the register and Thomas was only given a cot in Rickey's room, not an actual bed.  When Rickey got to his room Thomas was sitting on the edge of the cot, crying and scratching at his hands.  Rickey stopped and watched not knowing what to do.  Thomas just said "It's my skin.  If I could just tear it off I would be like everyone else."  Rickey went on to become an executive with the St. Louis Browns and St.Louis Cardinals, introducing the famous Cardinals logo of two birds perched on a baseball bat.  He revolutionized the sport by developing the first farm system of teams but he kept the terrible memory of Charles Thomas in his mind the rest of his life.  After Happy Chandler,  the new commissioner, made a statement known as the "four freedoms"statement, the door was open for Rickey to break the color barrier.

Clyde Sukeforth:
Clyde Sukeforth was sent by Branch Rickey to scout Jackie and was told he was scouting players for the Brooklyn Dodgers negro league team.  Sukeforth reported back to Rickey, brought Jackie in for the first ever meeting and was a longtime supporter of Jackie.  Frequent readers of the blog will remember that Clyde was featured in the series of articles focusing on players you may not know but should.

Clay Hopper:
Clay Hopper was a Southerner managing the Brooklyn Dodgers' farm team, the Montreal Royals, when Branch Rickey assigned Jackie to play for the Royals.  Hopper was appalled that he would be the first white manager to manage an African American player and begged Rickey to assign Jackie to another team because he was terrified of what his neighbors would do.  While watching Jackie in practice before the season Rickey turned to Hopper and said "Can you believe the play that man just made?"  The response summed up Hopper's beliefs.  He asked Rickey "Mr. Rickey, do you really think a n*****'s a human being?"  Hopper did his best to adapt to the situation ( if he didn't he would be out of a job) and to adapt to the changing world.  As the Dodgers continued to sign players to follow Jackie's success Hopper continued to manage Montreal.  Joe Black, Roy Campanella and Don Newcombe all played under Hopper and although his racial views may or may not have changed, Campanella said he never had any negative experiences with Hopper.

Larraine Day:

Larraine Day was a famous actress best known for staring in the Dr. Kildare movie series along with Lew Ayres (husband of Ginger Rogers).  Day herself was married to actor Ray Hendricks, although she was carrying on an affair with Leo Durocher, the Dodgers manager.  Day and Hendricks sued each other for divorce on the grounds of infidelity and the scandal led to long time Dodger supporters, such as the Catholic Youth Organization, boycotting the team.  Already in hot water for his other issues, the Dodgers ordered Durocher and Day to end the relationship.  They refused, remained together and even married.  When Durocher moved to the Giants, Day was given a pregame radio program called "Day with the Giants".

Leo Durocher:

Durocher is famous for many things but the most famous was the statement he probably never made: "Nice guys finish last."  He was originally signed by the Yankees but was released when Babe Ruth accused him of trying to steal his watch.  Durocher was part of Rickey's "Gashouse Gang" 1934 Cardinals and was a fierce competitor who was always ready for a fight.  Before the 7th game of the 1934 World Series the legendary Frankie Frisch asked Durocher to play a little closer to second because Frisch was concerned he was too exhausted to play with his normal range.  He told Frisch, who was also his manager, "Go get yourself a wheelchair if you can't cover your territory.  I'm not making myself look bad to make you look good."  Durocher's controversy didn't begin or end with the Larraine Day scandal.  His battles with Lee MacPhail were legendary.  Durocher was also known to associate with George Raft, a Hollywood actor and close friend of mobster Bugsy Siegel.  Happy Chandler demanded that Durocher cut ties with the mobsters (and Raft) or he would be disciplined.  When Durocher taunted MacPhail for having gamblers in his owner's box during a spring training game, MacPhail complained to Chandler and an investigation began.  While the investigation went on Jackie was in Spring Training fighting to be promoted from Montreal.  When Durocher found out about the petition signed by the southern players he called a team meeting.  He made it clear that the players better fall in line or deal with him. He yelled at the team "I don't care if he's yellow or black or has stripes like a god damn zebra.  I'm the manager of this team and I say he plays."  The day before Opening Day 1947 Durocher was suspended for his gambling connections.  He was replaced by Burt Shotton for the 1947 season but was back on the bench for 1948.  Durocher and Robinson did not get along.  When Jackie struggled at the start of the new year Durocher seemed to take it personally.  Durocher treated Jackie like he did his other players (with a lot of yelling) but Jackie did not respond well and the relationship soured.  Durocher was fired half way through the 1948 season and was immediately signed by the rival Giants igniting one of the most vicious periods of the rivalry.


Burt Shotton:

Burt Shotton was forced into a tough situation.  The Dodgers had tied for first place in 1946 and were expected to challenge for the pennant in 1947.  The season started with the player revolt and the Durocher suspension followed very quickly after.  Rickey originally wanted Joe McCarthy, former Yankees manager, to take over but McCarthy refused.  Clyde Sukeforth was given a temporary job but convinced Rickey that Burt Shotton was the man for the job.  Shotton was known for wearing regular clothes in the dugout and not the usual full uniform.  When Durocher was let go half way through the 1948 season Shotton was brought back and managed through the end of the 1950 season.  When Cal Abrams was thrown out at the plate by Richie Ashburn to clinch a Phillies win over the Dodgers on the last day of the 1950 season Shotton was let go.

Harold Parrott
Harold Parrott was the Dodgers traveling secretary given the impossible task of coordinating the Dodgers travel plans for the 1947 season.  Parrott played a big part in keeping the balance on the team.  When the players signed the petition to ask Rickey not to bring Jackie to the Dodgers, Parrott was the one who learned of the player revolt and brought it to Rickey's attention.  Rickey told Parrott that he had confidence that everything would work out.  Rickey predicted there would be some kind of incident that would rally the team behind Jackie.

Red Barber

Red Barber, a southerner, was the Dodgers long time broadcaster who voiced his concerns to Branch Rickey about breaking the color barrier.  He may not have agreed with the signing at first, however, he quickly came to admire Robinson and was a great supporter of Jackie.  Barber worked with a young Vin Scully in Brooklyn to broadcast the Dodgers games and taught Scully everything he knew.  Shortly after Rickey sold his shares of the team to Walter O'Malley, Barber moved to the Yankees broadcast booth rather than working for O'Malley.

Jake Pitler
Jake Pitler was a first base coach for the Dodgers.  His Jewish background was used as a way to connect the team with the Jewsh community in Brooklyn.  Pitler was very supportive of Jackie.  During that first spring training Pitler told the press "It would be a crime not to let this boy come up because of his color."  Throughout the season Pitler routinely pointed out that Jackie was the motor that made the Dodgers go.


Dodgers Players:
Pee Wee Reese (Uniform #: 1):
One of many southern born players on the Dodgers, Reese was overseas in the military service when the news came out that Jackie had signed a contract with Brooklyn. Jackie had played Shortstop for the negro leagues, Reese's position.  When he was asked how he felt about Jackie possibly competing for Pee Wee's job, Reese said "if he can outplay me he deserves to play."  During Jackie's rookie season as the Dodgers were playing in Cincinnati Jackie was being heckled horribly.  During an in between inning warm up Pee Wee walked over to Jackie who was being called terrible names from the crowd.  He put his arm around Jackie's shoulder and just stood next to him looking at the crowd.  They didn't yell anything back to the crowd but it was a clear signal that the Dodgers players were standing by their teammate.  Reese and Robinson were very close friends.  They rarely hung out outside of the clubhouse but the two had an eternal respect for each other and loved to clown around before and after games.

Carl Furillo (Uniform # 6):

Furillo was one of the best players during the glory days of the Brooklyn Dodgers and one of the most misunderstood. An intense competitor, he was quiet, moody and with a quick temper. Furillo's part in the arrival of Jackie Robinson is full of controversy. When the Southern players drafted their petition they asked Furillo to sign it. What happened next depends on who you decide to believe. Furillo claims he flat out refused to sign it. Branch Rickey and later Buzzie Bavasi claimed Furillo had signed the petition. Some claimed Furillo signed it to keep Jackie out, while Bavasi claimed it was out of peer pressure and not out of any malicious intent. When the movie "Jackie Robinson Story" was released there was an Italian-American ballplayer who signed the petition but was not mentioned by name. Furillo was convinced that the player represented him and was furious he was being portrayed as a racist. It is not clear how he will be portrayed in the movie although based on the list of Dodgers players it appears he will be included in the group signing the petition. Jackie and Furillo were never close. Once asked what he would do if Jackie tried to take his job Furillo replied "I'd cut his legs off." Realizing how it would appear in print Furillo immediately went to Jackie and explained that although he said the words it was not intended as a racial comment but only in terms of a player fighting for his job. He had thought of the question only in terms of a baseball player trying to take his job and not as a racial question. Furillo did not socialize with Jackie outside the clubhouse (Furillo socialised with very few players) but on the field they supported each other.

Dixie Walker (Uniform #11):

Dixie Walker was born and raised in Georgia, as his name would suggest, and he was proud of his southern heritage.  Walker started his career in New York with the Yankees and is the only player to have played on the same team with Babe Ruth and Jackie Robinson.  While playing for the Yankees he was roomed with Ben Chapman, manager of the Phillies when Jackie broke into the league.  Walker was a fan favorite and important part of the improving Dodger organization.  The year before Jackie arrived Walker finished second in MVP voting as the Dodgers ended the regular season tied for first place with the Cardinals.  When Dixie found out that Rickey planned to bring Robinson to the Dodgers he gathered the southern players of the team together and started a petition asking Rickey not to force them to play with an African American.  From most sources Walker seems to be the main instigator of the petition idea (though the other players seemed to need little prodding).  Walker may not have liked Robinson but he learned to be professional around him and even helped Jackie in practices, something he would not do for other players.  When Duke Snider asked Walker for help on a play Walker told him "figure it out for yourself kid".

Eddie Stanky (Uniform #12)
Eddie Stanky had a good reason to fear having Jackie Robinson on the team. Stanky finished 7th in the MVP voting in 1946 for the Dodgers team that forced the first ever National League playoff. With Robinson playing a middle infield position and Pee Wee Reese, the team captain, at shortstop, it was clear where Jackie was destined to play. Stanky refused to sign the petition started by Dixie Walker, not necessarily because of Jackie, but out of loyalty to Branch Rickey. Stanky walked up to Jackie when he was officially given a spot on the Dodgers roster and said "I don't like you but we'll play together and get along because you're my teammate." As Ben Chapman and the Phillies launched an assault on Robinson, his teammates stood quietly by and let it happen. There was nothing they could (or would) do. Finally, during the third game in the Phillies series Stanky had had enough. "Hey you cowards, why don't you yell at someone who can answer back?" The Phillies did. Stanky was traded to the Boston Braves after the 1947 season and helped the Braves to their final National League Championship in Boston.

Ralph Branca (Uniform #20)


Ralph Branca is remembered for one pitch.  In the 1951 playoff against the hated Giants, Branca threw the pitch that Bobby Thompson turned into "the shot heard around the world" which started Russ Hodges screaming "the Giants won the pennant!" for seemingly hours.  In 1947 he was still a young pitcher for the Dodgers and was several years away from infamy.  He was throwing a no hitter against the Cardinals when Enos Slaughter spiked Jackie at first.  According to Branca he told Jackie he would bean the next Cardinals batter in retaliation but Jackie told him not to worry about it and just worry about getting the outs.  Branca did not finish the no hitter but he did do a lot to support Robinson in his time with the Dodgers.  Branca had several uniform numbers through his years with the Dodgers.  In 1947 he wore number 20, however, you may also see him in a #12 or #13 uniform.  He wore unlucky #13 at the time of Thompson's legendary home run.  Branca was also the father in law of Bobby Valentine.

Spider Jorgensen (Uniform # 21)
Spider Jorgensen was a team mate of Robinson's in Montreal and came up to the Dodgers in 1947 along with Jackie.  Jorgensen was in the spring training camp when Jackie first joined the organization and said he didn't think too much either way of having Jackie on the team. Jorgensen had played with African Americans in Junior College and in the California summer leagues and he had no concerns with having Jackie on the team.  (Only 10 months younger than Jackie, and being from California, it is likely that Jorgensen would have heard of Jackie's success at UCLA).  Like Hermanski, Jorgensen was a good player, but not a great player and as a rookie he probably felt it better to keep quiet and focus on playing in the 1947 season.

Gene Hermanski (Uniform # 22)
Gene Hermanski was a good outfielder for the Dodgers but not a great player. He first came to the majors in 1943 and hit .300 in only 18 games. He served in the military in 1944 and 1945 but was back for 64 games in 1946, hitting only .200. Hermanski is usually absent from Robinson literature and seems to have kept relatively quiet. This is just speculation but it may be that as a native of Massachusetts, and as a relatively marginal player at the time he may have had little social contact with the Southern players. He probably also felt it was best to keep quiet, keep his head down and focus on playing. He played a big part in the Dodgers success in 1947 and 1949 and their success in the early parts of the 1951 season. He was traded to the Cubs in June of 1951 and played through the 1953 season ending his career with the Pirates.

Bobby Bragan (Uniform #24)
Bobby Bragan was a utility player, mostly playing at Catcher, born and raised in Birmingham, AL. He did not play in 1946 but was back on the roster in 1947 for Jackie's rookie season. When he learned that Robinson would join the big league Dodgers, he signed the petition started by Dixie Walker. He also had salary issues with management and demanded to be traded. Bragan played in only 34 more games for the Dodgers over the next two seasons before retiring. He deeply regretted the petition he signed and went on to manage in the majors. Bragan's uniform number may also appear as#15. He wore #15 during the years 1943 and 1944. When he returned to the roster in 1947 he was given uniform #24.

Hugh Casey (Uniform #25)
Hugh Casey was one of the southern players who almost immediately sided with Dixie Walker when the idea of a petition was put forth. He and Jackie were never friends and Casey often made racial jokes in front of Jackie. Although they were not friends, Casey often worked with Jackie in practice and often defended him against other teams.

Rex Barney (Uniform #26)
Rex Barney was on the mound warming up in Cincinnati when the crowd started to verbally attack Jackie and Reese famously put his arm around Jackie's shoulder.  Barney would later say that Jackie was "the most exciting player I have ever seen- not the best but the most exciting."  Barney was a pitcher with a lot of potential but was often wild.  Going into the 1947 season he had pitched in 27 games and had a 4-7 record in parts of two seasons. He would go on to a 5-2 record in 1947.  His best season was 1948 when he went 15-13 with a 3.10 ERA.  His wildness continued to get worse as his career progressed and his career never got back on track.  After his playing days Barney worked for years as the stadium announcer in Baltimore.  He was known to say "Give that fan a contract!" anytime a fan made a nice catch on a foul ball and the end of announcements would often be completed with an exaggerated "Thank You!" extending the word you.  Following the Orioles last game played in Memorial Stadium the Orioles had a ceremony to celebrate the legends of the franchise.  The last sound that came over the PA of Memorial Stadium was Rex Barney's "Thank Youuuuuuu!"

Pete Reiser (Uniform #27)

Fans of the blog will remember the stories of Pete Reiser from the recent series of articles about players you may not know but should. Despite his many injuries and deteriorated state, the US Army called Reiser into duty and stationed him at Fort Reilly. The fort had a baseball team and obviously they wanted Reiser,a great star in the league at the time, on the team. As they were practicing they saw an African American Sergeant walk up to the field and just stand there watching not sure how to go about getting onto the team. The coach turned to him and told him he would "have to go play for the black team" which everyone knew didn't exist. Reiser did not clarify if he laughed along with the coach at the joke or kept silent but he did say that it was the first time he had seen Jackie Robinson and he would forever remember Jackie quietly walking away. Reiser was no pioneer in civil rights but he saw no reason Jackie shouldn't play. When Dixie Walker asked Reiser to sign the petition, Reiser told a story about his daughter being desperately ill while on vacation. The Reiser's looked up the closest doctor and went immediately. The doctor, who happened to be African American, treated Pete's daughter who immediately recovered. After telling the story he asked Walker what he would have done if he had been in that situation. Walker said he would have turned around and walked out of the doctor's office. Reiser told him he was a fool and flat out refused to sign Walker's petition.

OTHER LEAGUE PLAYERS/PERSONNEL:
Happy Chandler
Chandler was the second commissioner of baseball.  Judge Kennesaw Mountain Landis (the first) died  in 1944 Chandler replaced him (after a brief interim commissioner) and immediately showed that he intended to run things differently.  Landis had repeatedly said publicly that there was no ban on African-Americans playing in the Major Leagues but behind the scenes made it clear that he would not allow it.  Chandler was different.  Chandler was asked by two African American reporters whether he would continue Landis's policy.  He responded "I'm for the four freedoms and if a black man can make it at Okinawa and go to Guadalcanal, he can make it in baseball." Chandler, born and raised in Kentucky, was widely criticised by southern fans.

Johnny Sain (Uniform #33 for Braves)
There was a clear game plan for the Braves in the 1940's and 1950's. The pitching staff was "Spahn then Sain, then pray for rain". Sain won 20 games in 1946 and would win another 21 in 1947. On April 15, 1947 Sain started the opening day game against the Dodgers and was the first pitcher to face Jackie Robinson in a regulation Major League game. Sain had a great amount of success against Jackie and throughout the years Jackie struggled to hit Sain's curve ball. Sain would win 24 games in 1948 as the Braves reached the World Series and would later go on to be a long time pitching coach for the Yankees.

Ben Chapman (Phillies Manager):


Chapman will likely be the villain in the movie.  He played for the Yankees in the early 1930's and was often the center of controversy in his playing days.  He was known around the league as a borderline dirty player and during the 1933 pennant race with the Senators he repeatedly spiked the Senators Second baseman Buddy Myers and had several altercations with the Senators team.  Chapman also got into trouble in New York when he made several off color jokes about Jewish fans.  When DiMaggio joined the Yankees Chapman became expendable and was traded.  He eventually wound up in Philadelphia and was player-manager beginning in 1945.  Chapman was born and raised in Alabama and was not shy about letting the world know he was against the integration of any institution, not just baseball.  When the Dodgers visited Philadelphia for the first time, Chapman began a barrage of abuse against Jackie and ordered his players and coaches to do the same.  Several Phillies players held their bats like machine guns, aimed them at Jackie and made gun noises.  The intensity of the abuse was well beyond what the Dodgers had suffered in any other city.  Chapman was criticised by the Dodgers, the press and the Phillies management.  Chapman was quick to say that he was only doing what had been done to all players, trying to get an advantage by "bench jockeying" and refused to admit he had targeted Jackie more intensely than he would have done to any other rookie.  The Phillies management was ready to fire Chapman immediately.  Chapman offered to apologize to Jackie and had Harold Parrott ask Jackie to help him out by taking some pictures together for the press.  To his credit Jackie agreed and photos of the two of them with uncomfortable smiles appeared in the papers the next day.  The only thing that Jackie insisted on for the apology was that Chapman come over to the Dodgers dugout to apologize.  The incident did nothing to change Chapman's outlook on life.

Herb Pennock:
Herb Pennock was a legend in Philadelphia. Known as "the Squire of Kennett Square" where he grew up, Pennock was signed by Connie Mack in 1912 and pitched for Mack's 1914 AL Champion Athletics. When Mack dumped payroll after the World Series loss, Pennock went on to pitch for the Red Sox until that team shifted most of their best players to the Yankees and he moved to New York in 1923. He was the star pitcher in the Yankees first World Series win. At the time Jackie came into the league Pennock was the General Manager for the Phillies and was ready to fire Ben Chapman after the ugly incident. Only Chapman's "apology" to Jackie saved his job.

Eddie Dyer
As a rookie manager in 1946 Eddie Dyer led the Cardinal to a first place tie with Brooklyn, a victory over the Dodgers in the first ever National League playoff series and a seven game World Series win over the Red Sox. Leading into opening day 1947 , Dyer had to deal with his players, led by a southern contingent, threatening to go on strike if they were forced to play in the same league as Jackie Robinson. Fortunately for Dyer, NL President Ford Frick ended all of the strike talk quickly by saying that anyone who chose to go on strike in protest of Robinson could stay home because they would not be welcomed back...ever. Following the first series with the Cardinals, Jackie mentioned Eddie Dyer as one of the "swell bunch of guys" who had treated him well.

Stan Musial (Uniform #6 for Cardinals)
Frequent readers who saw the post that was completed at the time of Musial's passing will know that he is generally considered one of the nicest and classiest men to have ever played the game. He was named along with Garagiola and Eddie Dyer as two players treating Jackie well during the Dodgers' first visit to St. Louis. When the Cardinals played the Dodgers in the second series, when Slaughter spiked Jackie and Garagiola had his confrontation with Robinson, Jackie was on first base and was angry. Jackie reportedly said (either to Stan or to the first base coach) "I don't care what happens but when I get down to second base I'm going to kill someone." Musial's response was "I don't blame you. You have every right to do it." Musial's calm, classy response calmed Jackie down.

Joe Garagiola (Cardinals Uniform #17):

Joe Garagiola was stationed at Fort Reilly with Pete Reiser when Jackie was told he would "have to go play for the black team".  There is no documentation that I have found to detail Joe's reaction. Garagiola's portrayal in the movie could go one of two ways.  Following the Dodgers' first visit to St.Louis in 1947 Jackie singled out several players as having treated him very well and being "swell guys".  Garagiola was one he singled out as being in that group.  The second time the Dodgers faced the Cardinals, during the playoff race, things did not go quite so well.  In the same game that Enos Slaughter spiked Jackie, Garagiola spiked Jackie as he tried to beat out a double play ground ball.  When Jackie came to bat Garagiola, a catcher,  and Robinson had a heated conversation, leading to Garagiola taking off his mask and the two exchanging words face to face. Garagiola forever denied that the spike was intentional and it is possible that Jackie overreacted to an accidental spiking, having been viciously spiked earlier in the game by Slaughter, not knowing that Garagiola was just running out a ground ball.  Garagiola was a childhood friend of Yogi Berra, both growing up in the St. Louis area.  Joe is best known for his humor and his career as an announcer after his playing days.  Garagiola had a thick, identifying accent and was the voice of the baseball and the World Series on NBC for nearly twenty years.  His last World Series broadcast was in 1988.  Garagiola was a television figure for decades hosting several game shows, appearing on the Today Show as a regular host and a fill in host for Johnny Carson.  During one 1968 hosting stint, filling in for Carson, Garagiola welcomed John Lennon and Paul McCartney to The Tonight Show.  It was the only appearance of any Beatles (as Beatles or later as solo artists) on The Tonight Show.  Garagiola continued broadcasting after leaving NBC and spent time on broadcast teams for the Angels and Diamondbacks.  Just over a month ago, February 22, Garagiola officially retired.

Billy Herman (Uniform #11 for Pirates)
Billy Herman was a great second baseman for the Cubs. A seven time All Star in Chicago and team leader for the Cubs' 1932, 1935 and 1938 World Series teams, the Dodgers made a trade for Herman early in 1941 and the double play combination of Herman and Reese helped lead the Dodgers to their first World Series since 1920. Herman hated Branch Rickey and was traded to the Braves midway through the 1946 season (the final straw that sent Herman packing is debated). In 1947 Herman was in his last year of his career and was playing for the Pirates. He is mentioned very little in connection with Robinson that I am aware so it is unclear if he will be one of the Pirates vocally against Jackie or one who showed concern when he was hit by Ostermuller.

Fritz Ostermuller (Uniform # 21 for Pirates)
When the Dodgers first faced the Pirates in 1947, the Pirates were a divided team among themselves, which likely explains why they ended so low in the standings that year (62-92, last place, 32 games behind the Dodgers).  Ostermuller was not happy that Jackie was in the league and took the opportunity to show Jackie what he thought. The first pitch was up and in, aimed right at Jackie's head.  Jack was able to get his arm up to deflect the ball but fell to the ground and was in severe pain.  His Dodgers teammates came to his defense and challenged Ostermuller, several Pirates players also showed some concern.  Later in the season, when Jackie stole home for the first time in his career, it was against Ostermuller. In that same series in Brooklyn Jackie homered off Ostermuller.

Kirby Higbe (Uniform #13 for Pirates)
Kirby Higbe was a southern born pitcher known to his teammates as Kirby "F'ing" Higbe because as soon as he checked into a hotel on the road he would call room service and announce "This is Kirby F***ing Higbe in room 205.  Send up...".  He would then charge the laundry list of items to the team.  When Dixie Walker asked players to sign a petition to keep Jackie off the team Higbe reluctantly signed.  A few days later he was having a few beers with Harold Parrott and his guilt got the best of him.  He let Parrott know of the planned revolt leading Rickey and Durocher to react.  His involvement led Rickey to trade Higbe to the Pirates, along with several players including future long time manager Gene Mauch (not in any way involved in the petition but just a very interesting side note), in exchange for Al Gionfrido.  Gionfrido would be one of Jackie's biggest supporters in the clubhouse and would make one of the greatest catches in World Series history in the 1947 World Series.  Higbe's part was not over.  The day before Ostermuller threw at Jackie, Higbe started against the Dodgers.  Pee Wee Reese led off the game and the first pitch was identical to the one Ostermuller sent at Jackie the day before, although Reese was not hit by the pitch.  Most believed it was because Pee Wee had refused to sign the petition but there could have been deeper bad feelings between the two as they were long time teammates.  Reese stepped back into the box and sent the second pitch of the game out of the park for a home run.

"Young" Ed Charles:
Ed Charles is listed on the IMDB cast page as "young Ed Charles" in the movie.  Charles would have been a week away from turning 14, growing up in Daytona Beach, FL, when the Dodgers opened the 1947 season.  Charles went on to be a pretty good player on some very bad teams.  He was drafted by the Braves in 1952 but would be moved to the Athletics organization before the Braves became consistent National League contenders.  He would play for the Athletics during the bad Kansas City years and then would be moved to the comical Mets.  Charles was still with the team when the  "Miracle Mets" won the 1969 World Series.  Ed Charles is still active in the baseball community and is very well respected.  He will likely be utilized to portray the doors that were opened to the youth of the country because of the success of Branch Rickey's plan and Jackie's hard work.

CHARACTERS NOT LISTED BUT LIKELY APPEARING OR BEING REFERENCED:
Hank Greenburg (Uniform #5 for Pirates)

Hank Greenberg was one of the greatest players the American League had ever seen and ranks along with Ty Cobb as the best player in Tigers history.  He won two American League MVP's and was a war hero.  After the 1946 season the Tigers traded the great First baseman to the Pirates.  He had no intention of going to the NL and planned to retire.  He was convinced by Bing Crosby, owner of the Pirates, to play for one season.  During the Pirates series with Brooklyn, when Jackie was on first base, Greenberg gave Jackie plenty of encouragement.  Having suffered years of abuse for his Jewish background Greenberg empathized with what Jackie was experiencing.  Greenberg offered to take Jackie out to dinner after the game but Jackie declined saying he was afraid it would put Hank in a bad position.

Bob Feller (Indians Pitcher) 

Bob Feller was one of the best pitchers in the history of the game  When he was asked how he felt about Robinson he said that he did not think he would make it in the majors because "he's all tied up in the shoulders" referring to Jackie's awkward almost lunging swings at times.  He was not the only one who felt Jackie's mechanics at the plate would make him an easy out.  Feller said that he doubted Jackie would have even been given a chance to play if he had been a white man.  A few months later he would be teammates with Larry Doby.

Dan Bankhead (Uniform # 23 for Dodgers)
Midway through the season when it was clear that Jackie was a success Rickey wanted to expand the experiment to cement the idea that this was for real and not just a stunt or gimmick.  On August 26th Rickey signed Dan Bankhead of the Negro League's Memphis Red Sox.  Bankhead made his debut on August 26th and was the second African American player to play in the National League.  He was not nearly as successful as Jackie.  He pitched in 18 innings with no record but an ERA of 7.20.  He finished his career in 1951 with a career 9-5 record and a 6.52 ERA.

Larry Doby (Uniform #14 for Indians):

It would be an interesting study to try and figure out what makes one person successful and another less successful under the same adverse conditions.  Larry Doby became the first African American to play in the American League on July 5, 1947, just a few months after Jackie Robinson debuted for the Dodgers.  Doby did not have the support (of management or teammates) or the personality of Robinson.  While Robinson and Rickey understood that always keeping quiet and not fighting back his first year in the league would help him in the long run, Doby was often angry, morose and distant.  Doby did not get the following or the attention that Robinson did and was often portrayed in books and newspaper articles as bitter.

Bill Veeck:
Bill Veeck owned several teams over the years and was always looking for ways to bring fans into the seats.  When he owned the Browns he hired a midget, Eddie Gaedel, to pinch hit for one game.  Later, when he owned the White Sox, he came up with Disco Demolition night and the players wearing shorts instead of the traditional pants.  Before Branch Rickey came up with the idea of breaking the color barrier, Veeck had planned to buy the Phillies and fill the starting lineup with African American players.  When Commissioner Landis learned of Veeck's plan he made sure the Phillies were sold to someone else.  As the owner of the Indians, Veeck was able to break the color barrier in the American League by signing Larry Doby. 

Buck O'Neil:

Of all the people who deserve to be in the Hall of Fame but are not, Buck O'Neil tops the list.  He never played in the major leagues, never managed in the major leagues but he was one of the greatest ambassadors the game has ever had.  Buck was Jackie's manager when he played for the Kansas City Monarchs of the Negro Leagues.

Sunday, April 7, 2013

Final Predictions for the 2013 Season

***The Season Preview and Predictions that follow are not betting advice in any way shape or form.  Please do not bet any money based in any part on these predictions.***

This looks like it will be a great season.  Some cities that have not had playoff expectations for years (Kansas City, Baltimore, Washington, Pittsburgh) are going into this season with high hopes.  Other long time or recent contenders (Philadelphia, the Yankees, Boston, Texas, Tampa Bay, St.Louis and Milwaukee) are falling back towards the middle of the pack.  This could be one of the most competitive seasons in years and there are few teams who look like they have no chance at all to make the playoffs.  So get ready because it is a long, fun trip to October.  I hope everyone enjoys the ride as much as I will.

Head of the Class: 
There are a few teams that appear to be head and shoulders above the rest of their division and are clear cut favorites to dominate.  The Tigers lost the World Series last year but appear to have fixed nearly all of their problems (with the exception of closer).  They already had some bullpen issues this week and resigned Jose Valverde to a minor league deal.  The Angels challenged for a playoff spot last year and if it had not been for a slow start they would have done it.  They have added some firepower in Josh Hamilton but their pitching rotation is a big question.  They have already started of 1-3 but it is very early and a 2 game deficit can disappear very quickly.  The Cincinnati Reds have not won a World Series since 1990 but they are returning a team that won 97 games (even while losing three great players in Votto, Phillips and Rolen, to injuries for extended periods).  These three teams are the only ones you could say are poised to be clear favorites to win their divisions with little competition.

Look Out Below:
We are used to seeing several teams at the top of the divisions but those names are changing.  The Yankees have made the playoffs every year (except 2008) since 1995.  They have had a rough off season losing Rodriguez, Teixeira, and Granderson for extended periods while Jeter, Hughes and Gardner may start the season on the DL as well (although for shorter periods).  The Yankees have not entered a season with this many concerns since the 1994 strike.  This may be the Yankees time to rebuild.  The Phillies have gotten old faster than they should have.  Injuries to Howard, Utley and Halladay timed with Carlos Ruiz's suspension for a positive PED test may cause the Phillies to start rethinking their future. The Cardinals spent last year with the idea that they could win if they could just hang in there until Chris Carpenter got back.  This year Carpenter won't be back and neither will Rafael Furcal, the spark that got the Cardinals engine started.  The Brewers, Rangers and Rays have continuously lost key players to free agency without replacing them with proven talent.  The ownership and management of the Red Sox are a mess.

Ready to Strike?:
The Nationals are on the cusp of being at the head of the class but they are still a very young team.  Strasburg and Harper need to prove that they can continue to grow.  The Braves have the best outfield in baseball but their pitching staff is a big question mark.  The Blue Jays have made great improvements but have they made too many at one time?

Serious Contenders:
The Dodgers have a ton of talent but are already dealing with serious injury concerns.  The Royals have slowly (very very very very very slowly) built a good young core of players and added a veteran leader in James Shields.  Can they all achieve their potential together?  The Pirates have teased their fans for the last two seasons and collapsed after the All Star Break.  Can they put together a full good season?  The Athletics surprised everyone with their Division Title in 2012.  They lost several players who made that possible.  Is there enough left?

Rock Bottom:
The Marlins spent millions to bring a set of stars to Miami and open their new stadium.  Midway through the season they were dumping payroll and it continued this off season.  They are left with Giancarlo Stanton and...?  The Astros were the worst team in baseball last year. They have moved to the AL West this year but they brought the same old team.  The Rockies have four great players in Helton, Fowler, Gonzalez and Tulowitski.  Will any of them be there after the trade deadline?

Here is a final prediction* of what I believe the standings will look like at the end of the year:
American League East
1. Toronto Blue Jays
2. Tampa Bay Rays (Second Wild Card)
3. Boston Red Sox
4. New York Yankees
5. Baltimore Orioles

American League Central
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Kansas City Royals (First Wild Card)
3. Cleveland Indians
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Minnesota Twins

 American League West
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Houston Astros

Wild Card Game:  Kansas City Royals over Tampa Bay Rays
American League Divisional Series: 
Detroit Tigers over Kansas City Royals;
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim over Toronto Blue Jays
American League Championship Series:
Detroit Tigers over Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

American League Most Valuable Player: Prince Fielder (Detroit Tigers)
American League Cy Young Award Winner: Jered Weaver (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim)

1. Washington Nationals
2. Atlanta Braves (First Wild Card)
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. New York Mets
5. Miami Marlins

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Pittsburgh Pirates
3. St.Louis Cardinals
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Milwaukee Brewers

1. San Francisco Giants
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (Second Wild Card)
3. San Diego Padres
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies

National League Wild Card Game: 
Los Angeles Dodgers over Atlanta Braves
National League Division Series:
Cincinnati Reds over Los Angeles Dodgers
Washington Nationals over San Francisco Giants
National League Championship Series: 
Cincinnati Reds over Washington Nationals

National League Most Valuable Player:  Brandon Phillips (Cincinnati Reds)
National League Cy Young Award Winner:  Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals)

WORLD SERIES:
CINCINNATI REDS
over
DETROIT TIGERS
*-  These picks vary slightly from my original picks only in the fact that I have dropped the Yankees from a Wild Card Spot to 4th in the American League East.  The day after my American League East preview was published Curtis Granderson broke his arm and will miss a significant part of the season.  Since then Mark Texeira, Phil Hughes, Derek Jeter and Brett Gardner have all suffered injuries.  This is added to the previous loss of Alex Rodriguez and rumors of shoulder issues with Sabathia dating back to the postseason last year.  Due only to these injuries I have changed my prediction in the American League East.


Sunday, March 31, 2013

2013 National League West Preview

***The Division Preview that follows is not betting advice in any way shape or form.  Please do not bet any money based in any part on these predictions.***
Don't forget to also check out the AL EastAL Central, AL West,  NL East and NL Central previews from the past three weeks.  Check back next week for the final predictions (with some updates based on injuries and spring training performances) as well as the actual playoff, World Series, MVP and Cy Young predictions.

It may be a surprise but this division has produced 6 World Series participants since the three division format began in 1995.  The six league participants were the Padres (1998), Diamondbacks (2001), Giants (2002), Rockies (2007) and Giants (2010 and 2012).  The Diamondbacks and the last two Giants teams won it all, while the 2002 Giants lost  Game 7 to the Angels.

This division has also produced some of the best rivalries in the sport.  The Giants-Dodgers has always been a great rivalry and with both teams fielding competitive teams the rivalry should be at a flash point this year. For a few years in the middle of the 2000's the Padres-Dodgers rivarly was heating up as well, as the two teams were constantly fighting each other for the top spot.  When both teams started to fall off the rivalry cooled.

Similar to the American League West and the National League East, every team has spent time in every part of the division.  The Giants (1997, 2000, 2003, 2010 and 2012) and Diamondbacks  (1999, 2001, 2002, 2007 and 2011) have won the most division titles.  They are followed closely by the Dodgers (1995, 2004, 2008 and 2009) and Padres (1996, 1998, 2005 and 2006).  The Rockies reached the World Series as a Wild Card in 2007.

This division is much more competitive than most fans give it credit for.  The Rockies are clearly at the bottom of the league and one of the worst teams in baseball.  The rest of the division is very closely contested.  The Giants always seem to come out on top despite low national expectations and the Padres and Dodgers are improving.  Here is how I see it playing out:

San Francisco Giants

Last Year's Record:
94-68 (1st in NL West)
Defeated Reds 3-2 in NLDS
Defeated Cardinals 4-3 in NLCS
Defeated Tigers 4-0 in World Series
Who's new?*:
Jake Dunning (P) promoted from minors, Edwin Escobar (P) promoted from minors, Chris Heston (P) promoted from minors, Sandy Rosario (P) waiver claim from Cubs, Tony Abreu (2B) waiver claim from Royals, Ehre Adrianza (SS) promoted from minors , Nick Noonan (SS) promoted from minors , Angel Villalona (1B) promoted from minors, Roger Kieschnick (OF) promoted from minors, Juan Perez (OF) promoted from minors, Andres Torres (OF) free agent from Mets.
Who left?*:
Eric Hacker (P) unsigned free agent, Clay Hensley (P) free agent to Reds, Guillermo Mota (P) unsigned free agent, Brad Penny (P) unsigned free agent , Brian Wilson (P) unsigned free agent , Eli Whiteside (C)waiver claim by Yankees , Ryan Theriot (2B) unsigned free agent, Emmanuel Burriss (2B) free agent to Reds, Melky Cabrera (OF) free agent to Blue Jays, Aubrey Huff (OF) unsigned free agent, Justin Christian (OF) free agent to Cardinals.
What to expect: 
With the exception of Melky Cabrera moving on to Toronto, this team is returning almost untouched.  That is something quite rare for a World Series Champion in today's game.  The Giants may have even upgraded over Cabrera by adding Andres Torres from the Mets.  If Lincecum is healthy and Zito can continue his resurgence the rest of the league may be chasing the Giants all summer.
Why should you root for these guys?: 
Dating all the way back to the days of John McGraw, Christy Matthewson and Roger Bresnahan's days in New York the Giants are a big part of the history of the league.  They had long runs of success from 1904-1924, 1933-1938, 1951-1962 and then a long absence from the consistently good teams everyne remembered until the early part of this century. 
Why might this season not turn out like Giants fans want?: 
Several players may have overachieved last year including Barry Zito, who overcame several seasons below expectations to win 15 games and give the Giants strong playoff pitching performances,and Marco Scutaro, who was looked at as a liability heading into the playoffs.  The pitching staff is the key and a strong Lincecum is the key to the pitching staff.  If Lincecum struggles and Zito does not overachieve again look for the Giants to look very catchable.
Don't expect too much from him: 
Sergio Romo did not want to be a closer last year, he just kind of worked his way into the job.  The Giants needed someone to replace the injured Brian Wilson an he did such a good job that the Giants did not resign a healthy Wilson.  Romo did not really have time to think about his new position, he just had to adapt.  Now  that he has had time to think about the importance he may or may not be able to repeat the performance.
Expect great things from:
Buster Posey has played two full seasons in the majors.  In 2010 he won Rookie of the Year and the Giants won the World Series.  In 2011 he was injured and missed most of the year with a broken ankle and the Giants missed the playoffs.  In 2012 Posey came back and won an MVP and Silver Slugger award and the Giants again won the World Series.  Posey seems to be in the middle of everything good that happens to the Giants. As long as he's behind the plate the giants have the chance to win.
Time for him to step up:
After winning two of the last three World Series and getting clutch performances from unexpected players it is hard to say anyone needs to step up.
Is this his last chance?:
Tim Lincecum was probably asking whatever happened to loyalty.  The four time All Star, two time Cy Young Award winner and best pitcher in baseball, had an off year.  You could call it a terrible year.  When he finished 10-15 with an ERA above 5.00 he was left out of the playoff rotation and moved to long relief.  It seems like his great contributons to the rebirth of the Giants organization have been forgotten and he will need to have a big season to stay in the rotation.
Prediction:
1st place in NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers

Last Year's Record:
86-76 (2nd in NL West)
Who's new?*:
Steve Ames (P) promoted from minors, Zack Greinke (P) free agent from Angels, J.P. Howell (P) free agent from Rays, Matt Magill (P) promoted from minors, Hyun-Jin Ryu (P) free agent from Korea, Chris Withrow (P) promoted from minors, Skip Schumacker (SS) trade from Cardinals, Yasiel Puig (OF) promoted from minors.
Who left?*:
Joe Blanton (P) free agent to Angels, Randy Choate (P) free agent to Cardinals , Todd Coffey (P) unsigned free agent, John Ely (P) trade to Astros, Jamey Wright (P) free agent to Rays, Matt Treanor (C) unsigned free agent, Adam Kennedy (2B) unsigned free agent, Shane Victorino (OF) free agent to Red Sox, Bobby Abreu (OF) unsigned free agent ,  Juan Rivera (OF) free agent to Yankees .
What to expect: 
The Dodgers have a lot of potential and an almost unlimited payroll.  Injuries and questions about who is playing where could lead to a slow start and added pressure.  Dodgers fans should be excited about the future but it may still take them a few years to get the right combination of players to reach the World Series.  Regardless, this team is too talented not to challenge for a Wild Card spot.
Why should you root for these guys?: 
When the Dodgers and Giants are both good at the same time it means the best rivalry in the history of sports is at its best.  This rivalry goes back to the beginning of professioal baseball and has only grown as the years go on.  If things go right for the Dodgers, the northern California-southern California rivalry should be at its most vicious.
Why might this season not turn out like Dodgers fans want?: 
Teams like the Dodgers could go one of two ways:  it could be the greatest collection of talent we have seen in a long time or it could be a train wreck that ends up with players scattered across the league at the trading deadline.  On paper the Dodgers are an All Star team all by themselves.  In reality there are some issues.  Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, Chad Billingsley and Zack Greinke are already suffering from injuries.  Hanley Ramirez is out for the first two months and now there is the question of whether to move Luis Cruz from thirdbase to shortstop or leave him at third and play Dee Gordon (who for some reason has not impressed the Dodgers managment).  Dee Gordon was moved to the minor league camp on Tuesday so Cruz will be playing mostly at shortstop but that still leaves the question of who will play third?  The pitching rotation somehow has 8 solid starters but no one seems to know who is in the rotation.  The lineup is not quite set as Crawford and Kemp will be playing hur on opening day, Cruz is playing shortstop, or thirdbase or...?  Andre Ethier is constantly mentioned in trade rumors.  The players love Don Mattingly but the ownership has refused to give him an extended contract until he has proven he can get this team deep in the playoffs.  Adding to Mattingly's troubles could be having Mark McGwire as the new hitting coach.  It is hard to imagine two people with more varying philosphies in hitting.  It could lead to mixed signals to players looking for batting help.  The new ownership has spent a ton of money and expects results now. 
Don't expect too much from him: 
Matt Kemp has tremendous talent and should have won the 2011 MVP. The expectations coming into the 2012 season for Kemp were unrealistic.  He had a good season by most players' standards (especially when his injuries are taken into account) but it was considered a disappointment.  Kemp had significant surgery in the offseason.  Expect Kemp to fall somewhere in between the 2011 spectacular season and the 2012 "disappointment".  If the talent around him performs he won't need to reach the 2011 numbers for the team to reach the playoffs.
Expect great things from:
Adrian Gonzales had a rough stay in Boston and was happy to return to Southern California.  He made a big splash in his Dodgers debut but as the season went on his struggles continued.  Gonzales consistently worked on trying to correct his problems himself but finally went to McGwire for help.  He found that he was lifting his head and getting his hands too far out in front in an atempt to hit with more power.  With the work he has put in this year and his natural talent expect Gonzales to return to his San Diego performance level.
Time for him to step up:
A.J. Ellis took over for Russell Martin when Martin moved on to New York.  He took over an underachieving pitching staff.  The staff is now full of veteran, All Star, highly paid pitchers who know what they want to throw. Ellis is still a young catcher who will need to confidently call a game and be able to demand the respect and trust of the veteran pitchers.  If he allows the pitcher to take control and go away from the scouting reports the Dodgers will have a long summer.
Is this his last chance?:
Josh Beckett's stay in Boston started off with great results.  It ended with hard feelings and bad statistics.  There were stories of Beckett being a problem in the clubhouse and having a poor attitude.  Beckett has not shown any of these signs in his short time in Los Angeles and without the pressure of being the ace of the staff he can relax and pitch but if things don't go well, he is old enough that teams may think twice about adding him to ther staff.
Prediction:
2nd Place in NL West (2nd Wild Card)

San Diego Padres

Last Year's Record:
76-86 (4th in NL West)
Who's new?*:
Fautino De los Santos (P) waiver claim from Brewers, Jose De Paula (P) pomoted from minors, Adys Portillo (P) promoted from minors, Tyson Ross (P) trade from Athletics, Edinson Rincon (3B) promoted from minors, Yeison Asencio (OF) promoted from minors, Jaff Decker (OF) promoted from minors, Rymer Liriano (OF) promoted from minors.
Who left?*:
Cory Burns (P) trade to Rangers, Dustin Moseley (P) unsigned free agent , Ross Ohlendorf (P) free agent to Nationals, Micah Owings (P) free agent to Nationals, Matt Palmer (P) free agent to Dodgers, Josh Spence (P) waiver claim by Yankees, Kip Wells (P) unsigned free agent , Andrew Werner (P) trade to Athletics, Ali Solis (C) waiver claim by Pirates, Andy Parrino (SS) trade to Athletics.
What to expect: 
The common perception is that the Padres have been bad for a long time.  The reality is that it was only six years ago that the Padres lost a one game playoff to the Rockies for the Wild Card spot and only three years since they went into the final two games of the season with a chance to win the division over the eventual World Champion Giants.  This is a different team than the one that nearly won in 2010 but the second half of 2012 certainly got Padres fans excited.
Why should you root for these guys?: 
The Padres are generally considered a baseball graveyard.  A few years ago the typical thought of San Diego was that they were a terrible team and it was a shame that someone as talented as Adrian Gonzalez was wasting his talent.  That season they almost won the division.  Over the next two years, the Padres traded away their talent or lost most of them to free agency.  Yet during the second half of last year, the Padres played great ball.  For the Padres players who stuck around after the near win a few years ago it would be nice to see them overcome the low budget and poor perceptions.
Why might this season not turn out like Padres fans want?: 
The Padres had a very strong second half of 2012 that seemed to imply that Bud Black had the team moving in the right direction.  It is possible that the second half was misleading as the roster does not appear to have the talent needed to compete with the Dodgers and Giants. 
Don't expect too much from him:
Carlos Quentin's career with the White Sox got off to a great start.  He made two All Star teams and finished in the top 5 of MVP voting.  He was traded to San Diego before the 2012 season but suffered with injuries.  Quentin likely won't finish in the top 5 in MVP voting but he should make good contributions to the Padres.
Expect great things from:
Chase Headley had a breakout 2012 season.  He hit 31 Home Runs, nearly doubling his career total, and drove in 115 runs.  Headley seems to have finally figured it all out and will be the leader of this team.  If he repeats his 2012 numbers the Padres may surprise a lot of people.  He may have some trouble getting started as he jammed his thumb and is likely starting the season on the disabled list.
Time for him to step up:
Edinson Volquez showed great promise in his few years in Cincinnati even going 17-6 in 2008 and starting the All Star game.  Since then he has failed to live up to expectations and after his 17 win season he failed to win more than 5 games in any season. When Mat Latos became available, the Reds jumped at the chance.  In San Diego Volquez was spectacular going 11-11 on a losing team.  He needs to be the pitcher he was in 2008 if San Diego wants to challenge for a Wild Card spot.
Is this his last chance?:
Yasmani Grandal came to San Diego from the Reds along with Volquez in the deal that sent Mat Latos to the Reds.  He played in a total of 50 games in 2012 and hit .298 but will miss the first 50 games of the season with a PED suspension.  Manager Bud Black was not secretive about his displeasure over the suspension and the negative impact it had, especially after the positive end to last year. When Grandal comes back he will need to have an impact to make it up to his teammates.
Prediction:
3rd Place NL West


Arizona Diamondbacks

Last Year's Record:
81-81 (3rd in NL West)
Who's new?*:
Chase Anderson (P) promoted from minors, Heath Bell (P) trade from Marlins , Charles Brewer (P) promoted from minors , Eury de la Rosa (P) promoted from minors, Randall Delgado (P) trade from Braves, Brandon McCarthy (P) free agent from Athletics , Starling Peralta (P) Rule 5 draft pick from Cubs, Matt Reynolds (P) trade from Rockies, Tony Sipp (P) trade from Indians, Eric Smith (P) promoted from minors, Zeke Spruill (P) trade from Braves, Eric Chavez (3B) free agent from Yankees, Didi Gregorious (SS) trade from Reds , Cliff Pennington (SS) free agent from Athletics , Martin Prado (3B) trade from Braves, Keon Broxton (OF) promoted from minors, Tony Campana (OF) trade from Cubs, Eric Hinske (OF) free agent from Braves, Alfredo Marte (OF) promoted from minors, Cody Ross (OF) free agent from Red Sox.
Who left?*:
Jonathan Albaladejo (P) free agent to Marlins, Matt Albers (P) trade to Indians, Trevor Bauer (P) trade to Indians, Brad Bergesen (P) unsigned free agent, Sam Demel (P) waiver claim by Astros, Matt Lindstrom (P) free agent to White Sox, Joe Martinez (P) free agent to Indians, Takashi Saito (P) unsigned free agent, Bryan Shaw (P) trade to Indians, Mike Zagurski (P) free agent to Pirates, Knorad Schmidt (C) waiver claim by Rangers, Henry Blanco (C) free agent to Blue Jays, Mike Jacobs (1B) free agent to Mariners, Ryan Wheeler (3B) trade to Rockies, Chris Johnson (3B) trade to Braves, Geoff Blum (3B) unsigned free agent, Josh Bell (3B) unsigned free agent , Jake Elmore (SS) waiver claim by Astros, Chris Young (OF) trade to Athletics, Justin Upton (OF) trade to Braves, Tyler Graham (OF) unsigned free agent.
What to expect: 
The Diamondbacks surprised everyone with a division title in 2011.  They disappointed everyone with a poor 2012.  They shocked everyone by trading away Justin Upton.  The Diamondbacks seem to be a team at war with itself and with few established stars.  As the Dodgers and Padres improve and the Giants remain consistent the Diamondbacks will need to figure out what direction they are headed. 
Why should you root for these guys?:
The players on this team have lost their leader and marquee player .  Justin Upton led the team to a playoff appearance in 2011 and very nearly beat the Brewers in the NLDS that year and very nearly won the MVP.  It is unclear what caused the Diamondbacks to sour on Upton but the players left behind are suffering for it. 
Why might this season not turn out like Diamondbacks fans want?: 
The big bat and leader on this team was Justin Upton.  With Upton gone the Diamondbacks will need to get a big performance from a lot of players to pick up the slack.  The biggest problem is the lack of pitching.  Although Ian Kennedy, Brandon McCarthy and Trevor Cahill have potential they all had down years (McCarthy suffered an injury causing him to miss significant time for the A's).  They will need the pitiching staff to reach their potential if they want a chance to get in the playoffs.
Don't expect too much from him: 
Adam Eaton has a total of 22 games in the major leagues.  He is replacing one of the best players in the history of the organization, Justin Upton.  It was announced last week that he will miss 6-8 weeks with an elbow sprain.  Adam Eaton has a lot of potential and could push for a Rookie of the Year award when he returns but an MVP, or Justin Upton type numbers, are out of the question.
Expect great things from:
Martin Prado came to Arizona from the Braves in exchange for Justin Upton.  Prado is a .300 hitter and may not have the power of Upton but he has the speed at the top of the lineup that Arizona needs.  Prado was well respected in the Braves clubhouse and some were not happy to see him go, especially so quickly after Chipper Jones left.  Expect Prado to bring the same leadership to Arizona.
Time for him to step up:
When the Diamondbacks reached the playoffs in 2011, Paul Goldschmidt hit .306 with 30 Home Runs and drove in 94 runs.  In the 5 game NLDS against the Brewers he hit .438 with 2 Home Runs (one of them a Grand Slam) and 6 RBI.  His follow up season was much less impressive.  He hit only .286, drove in only 86 and hit only 20 Home Runs.  With the loss of Upton the team will need Goldschmidt to blossom into the team leader and to lead with his powerful bat.
Is this his last chance?:
Eric Chavez was a star in this league in the early 2000's.  As the Oakland Third Baseman Chavez was a recognizable name and was used in nationwide advertising for the playoffs from 2000-2002.  Back problems slowed his career but he has remained a solid contributor and filled in nicely for the Yankees when Alex Rodriguez was injured last year.  Chavez will not be a starter but will see significant playing time.  Chavez has always been a class act but he may not have many more chances to win a title.
Prediction:
4th Place in NL West

Colorado Rockies

Last Year's Record:
64-98 (5th Place in NL West)
Who's new?*:
Joe Gardner (P) promoted from minors, Wilton Lopez (P) trade from Astros , Daniel Rosenbaum (P) rule 5 draft pick from Nationals, Josh Sullivan (P) promoted from minors, Cristhian Adames (SS) promoted from minors , Reid Brigniac (SS) trade from Rays , Charlie Culberson (2B) trade from Giants , Ryan Wheeler (3B) trade from Diamondbacks , Tim Wheeler (OF) promoted from minors.
Who left?*:
Mike Ekstrom (P) free agent to Athletics, Jeremy Guthrie (P) free agent to Royals , Guillermo Moscoso (P) waiver claim by Royals, Zach Putnam (P) free agent to Cubs , Matt Reynolds (P) trade to Diamondbacks, Josh Roenicke (P) waiver claim by Twins, Carlos Torres (P) free agent to Mets, Alex White (P) trade to Astros, Thomas Field (2B) waiver claim by Twins , Andrew Brown (OF) free agent to Mets, Jason Giambi (1B) free agent to Indians.
What to expect: 
The Rockies faithful need to have low expectations.  Very low.  Instead of aiming to win a wild card spot they should aim to avoid finishing below the Astros, Marlins and Mets for the worst record in baseball.
Why should you root for these guys?: 
The Rockies are in a truly terrible period of their history.  They have three great players in Troy Tulowitski, Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzales but little else.  Anyone who enjoys rooting for the underdog, here's your team.
Why might this season not turn out like Rockies fans want?: 
Similar to the Astros, Rockies fans need to be realistic.  This is not a good team.  Although they have some talent it is not enough to keep them competitive and if they are blown away with offers for the talent they have don't be surprised to see Tulowitski and Carlos Gonzales in new uniforms by the trading deadline.
Don't expect too much from him:
Carlos Gonzalez caught fire in the second half of the 2010 season and finished the season with a .336 average.  Imagine what that season could have been like for te Rockies if Gonzalez's amazing second half could have been timed with Ubaldo Jimenez's amazing first hhalf.  At any rate, it wasn't and the Rockies had a bad year but Gonzalez was anointed by some as the best hitter in the game and the best hitter for the next era. He has followed up that season with a .295 and a .303 average  Gonzlaez is a great player and if he were playing in a lineup with some better protction he might see some better pitches.  Gonzalez will be a near .300 hitter but don't expect him to be the greatest hitter of the era.
Expect great things from:
Troy Tulowitski was a big reason the team reached the World Series in 2007.  He has been the clear star and fan favorite of the team since then.  Tulowitski is healthy again and should be back to his best after a few down seasons.
Time for him to step up:
Jeff Francis was one of the pitching stars (17-6) of the 2007 World Series team and was expected to continue his excellence  for many years.  Since then he has gone 4-10 (2008), 4-6 (2010), 6-16 (2011 in Kansas City) and 6-7 (2012).  Francis needs to recapture the magic that took the rockies to a surprise World Series appearance.
Is this his Last Chance?:
Todd Helton has been the team's most identifiable player over the history of the franchise.  He is likeTony Gwynn in San Diego, Ken Griffey Jr in Seattle or George Brett in Kansas City.  Helton is the Rockies.  h\He has been their best player but he is now almost 40 and his average dropped to .238 as he played in less than 70 games.  Helton will continue to represent the team with class but he will not likely be hitting .350 any more.  A playoff contending team looking for a strong veteran addition to get over the hump (read Padres, Pirates or A's) may make an offer for Helton at the trade deadline.  It may be his only chance to win.
Prediction: 5th Place in NL West

*-All roster changes are based on active rosters at the end of 2012 and active rosters as of the week of 3/3.  Teams may have non-roster invitees in camp who are not listed in the "Who's New?" category.

Monday, March 25, 2013

2013 National League Central Preview

***The Division Preview that follows is not betting advice in any way shape or form.  Please do not bet any money based in any part on these predictions.***

Don't forget to also check out the AL EastAL Central, AL West  and NL East previews from the past three weeks.  Check back next week for the NL Central preview.

This is a division in transition. The Reds are clearly on the incline while Milwaukee and St.Louis are falling towards the middle or bottom.  The Cubs are greatly improved and the Pirates (the only team in the division not to make the playoffs since the league moved to the three division format) are actually expected to compete for a playoff spot.  The division has changed since last season as the Astros have now moved to the American League West.

This division has provided fewer World Series participants than any other National League division.  The division did not produce a league Champion until the 2004 Cardinals.  Since then the division has only sent three more participants (2005 Astros, 2006 Cardinals and 2011 Cardinals).

Obviously the Cardinals have dominated the division for most of the NL Central's existence.  The Cardinals have won the division seven times (1996, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2009).  The Reds have won three division titles (1995, 2010 and 2012). The Cubs have won three division titles (2003, 2007 and 2008).  The Astros won four division titles before moving to the American League West (1997, 1998, 1999 and 2001). The Brewers have won the division one time (2011) and the Pirates have never won the division. 

Although the Reds are clearly the best in the division, the other four teams could land in any of the other four spots.  Here is how I see it playing out:


Cincinnati Reds

Last Year's Record:
97-65 (1st Place in NL Central)
Lost to Giants 3-2 in NLDS.
Who's new?*:
Carlos Contreras (P) promoted from minors, Daniel Corcino (P) promoted from minors, Ismael Guillion (P) promoted from minors, Kyle Lotzkar (P) promoted from minors, Nick Massett (P) return from injury , Manny Parra (P) free agent from Brewers , Curtis Partch (P) promoted from minors, Josh Ravin (P) promoted from minors, Jason Donald (3B) trade from Indians, Jack Hannahan (3B) free agent from Indians, Donald Lutz (1B) promoted from minors, Neftali Soto (1B) promoted from minors, Shin-Soo Choo (OF) trade from Indians, Yoman Rodriguez (OF) promoted from minors.
Who left?*:
Bill Bray (P) free agent to Nationals, Todd Redmond (P) waiver claim by Orioles, Dioner Navarro (C) free agent to Cubs, Scott Rolen (3B) unsigned free agent, Miguel Cairo (SS) unsigned free agent, Wilson Valdez (SS) free agent to Giants , Didi Gregorious (SS) trade to Indians , Drew Stubbs (OF) trade to Indians, Willie Harris (UT) unsigned free agent, Mike Constanzo (UT) free agent to Nationals.
What to expect: 
The Reds have some unfinished business.  They had the best record in the NL for a good part of last season and Johnny Cueto was truly great last season.  The last month of the season was tough.  There was a controversy over whether the team was better with Todd Frazier or Scott Rolen in the everyday lineup.  Dusty Baker suffered a stroke and Johnny Cueto suffered an arm injury in the first playoff game. The Reds were the favorites going into the playoffs last year and had Cueto been healthy and Buster Posey not crushed their dream with one swing in game 5 of the NLDS things might have gone different.  Expect the Reds to be angry about the way last season ended and enter this year with a determination to correct it.
Why should you root for these guys?: 
The Reds are the original franchise.  Literally. The Cincinnati Redstockings way back in 1869 paid the first ever professional players.  Since then they have gone through waves of spectacular achievements (1919, 1940, 1975-1976, 1990 World Series Champions) as well as unspeakable lows (Pete Rose's scandal, Marge Schott's controversy, the controversy of the 1981 split season).  The league is always better when the original teams are competitive.  In addition, Dusty Baker is one of the most underrated managers in history.  He led the Giants to Game 7 in 2002 before being beaten by the Angels.  He led the Cubs to within a few innings of their first World Series since 1945.  Since taking over the Reds he has led them to two playoff appearances in the last three years, their first appearances in 15 years.  Baker has been questioned by the fans over whether he is the right man for the job and deserves nothing less than the hardware to prove that he is.
Why might this season not turn out like Reds fans want?: 
There are still plenty of questions for this team that have taken up nearly all of the off season.  Is Todd Frazier as good as he played in his rookie year?  Will Aroldis Chapman be a starter despite Baker's wishes that he still close?  Will Broxton be the Broxton of 2008 or the Broxton of 2010? Will Shin Soo Choo be the lead off hitter that Cincinnati thought Drew Stubbs would be? Luckily the Reds will have Baker to lead them and find the right answers to these questions and any others that might pop up.  Baker has already answered one question.,  Chapman will be the closer but now the question is what will happen to Broxton?
Don't expect too much from him: 
Todd Frazier started the year as a utility player off the bench filling in wherever the Reds needed him and pinch hitting.  By late July it was clear that he was having a great rookie season and needed to play everyday.  When Scott Rolen suffered through injuries Frazier forced Baker to decide between an unproven hot bat and an aching, recovering veteran.  Rolen went 4-16 in the NLDS.  Frazier went 1-6.  Frazier will get a full season to prove that he is the third baseman of the future.  Don't expect him to put up the numbers that earned Rolen his reputation but do expect him to be a key role player in the Reds drive for a pennant.
Expect great things from:
Brandon Phillips is hands down the best second baseman in the National League.  With Chase Utley suffering through several injury filled seasons Phillips has become the best at the position.  It is almost impossible to believe some of the plays he makes and what is even more impossible to believe is that there was no room for him on the All Star team last year.  Phillips not only shines in the field, he is a big piece of the Reds offensive attack and has good speed, great knowledge and great leadership skills.  When Votto went down with injuries last year Phillips caught fire until he also went down with injuries.  If he has a full season, look for Phillips to become the first Reds second baseman to win an MVP since Joe Morgan (who ironically will have his statue unveiled outside the stadium this year).
Time for him to step up:
Mike Leake started off the 2010 season on an unbelievable streak.  He was one of the big reasons for the Reds first playoff appearance since 1995.  He went 12-9 in 2011 and only 8-9 in 2012.  The Reds will need Leake to step up and show that he is the pitcher he was in the first half of 2010.
Is this his last chance?:
Johnathon Broxton was the Dodgers closer when they made playoff runs in 2008 and 2009.  The 2010 and 2011 seasons were disasters for Broxton.  He somehow lost his ability to shut other teams down.  Joe Torre stuck with him as long as he could but the fans turned on him and it was bad enough that the Dodgers had to change their billboard ads to remove Broxton.  Broxton moved the Royals as a free agent for 2012 and moved to the Reds in a trading deadline deal.  If Broxton does not force the Reds to keep Chapman in the rotation he may not find many more opportunities to close.
Prediction:
1st Place in NL Central

Pittsburgh Pirates

Last Year's Record:
79-83 (4th Place in NL Central)
Who's new?*:
Vic Black (P) promoted from minors, Jeanmar Gomez (P) trade from Indians, Phil Irwin (P) promoted from minors, Francisco Liriano (P) free agent from White Sox , Mark Melancon (P) trade from Red Sox, Andy Oliver (P) trade from Tigers, Stolmy  Pimentel (P) trade from Red Sox, Hunter Strickland (P) free agent from minors, Duke Welker (P) promoted from minors, Russell Martin (C) free agent from Yankees, Tony Sanchez (C) promoted from minors, Jerry Sands (OF)trade from Red Sox, Brandon Inge (3B)  free agent from Athletics.
Who left?*:
Kevin Correia (P) free agent to Twins, Joel Hanrahan (P) trade to Red Sox,  Daniel McCutchen (P) free agent to Orioles, Evan Meek (P) free agent to Rangers, Chad Qualls (P) free agent to Marlins, Chris Resop (P) trade to Athletics,  Doug Slaten (P) unsigned free agent, Hisanori Takahashi (P) free agent to Cubs , Rick Van den Hurk (P) unsigned free agent, Rod Barajas (C) free agent to Diamondbacks, Jeff Clement (1B) free agent to Twins, Brock Holt  (2B) trade to Red Sox, Gorkys Hernandez (OF) , Eric fryer (OF) free agent to Twins , Drew Sutton (OF) free agent to Red Sox, Yamaico Navarro (UT) trade to Orioles.
What to expect: 
Pirates fans are frustrated, and rightfully so.  After two straight seasons of teasing the fans, the Pirates have fallen off late in the year.  Pirates fans will likely benefit from the second wild card position and Pirates fans can look forward to a competitive season and hopefully the first winning season in a very long time.
Why should you root for these guys?: 
Just like the Cincinnati Reds, the Pirates have a long history of winning, although you wouldn't be able to tell from the last 20 years.  When the modern era began in 1900 the Pirates were the absolute dominant team led by Honus Wagner, Fred Clarke and Tommy Leach.  The Pirates lost the first World Series to the Red Sox in 1903 and won their first World Series in 1909 in the first ever 7 Game World Series.  Since then the Pirates have won the World Seres in 1925, 1960, 1971 and 1979 and reached the World Series but lost in 1927.  The Pirates also dominated the National League East in the 1970's and early 1990's winning the division in 1970, 1971, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1979, 1990, 1991 and 1992.  Every era of the Pirates' success has produced some of the most recognizable names in the history of the game: Honus Wagner, Lloyd Waner, Paul Waner, Pie Traynor, Roberto Clemente, Dick Groat, Bill Mazeroski, Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonillia, Andy Van Slyke.  Also similar to the Reds, the league is better when they are competitive.
Why might this season not turn out like Pirates fans want?: 
It is unbelievably difficult, in any sport, to overcome a culture of losing in an organization.   You can imagine going to work at your own job everyday with the feeling of dread that before you get there it is already a bad day.  The Pirates have had that losing culture since 1993.  Clint Hurdle, one of the most underrated managers in baseball, has worked hard to instill a positive attitude in the clubhouse but late collapses in both of the last two years could lead the Pirates to dread August and September this year.
Don't expect too much from him: 
James McDonald  came to the Pirates from the Dodgers in a trade deadline deal in 2010 for Octavio Dotel.  The Pirates have clearly gotten the better of the deal as McDonald has shown stretches of great promise.  McDonald had a first half that had many asking why he did not pitch on the All Star team.  His second half was almost the exact opposite.  McDonald finished the season 12-8 with a 4.41 ERA.  The true James McDonald is probably somewhere between the great 9-3 first half and the dismal 4-5 second half.  You can expect McDonald to improve this year but don't expect 20 wins.
Expect great things from:
Andrew McCutcheon had a break out year in 2012.  At least that's what most people believed.  The truth is he just improved on his break out season of 2011 and with an increased confidence (and a hell of a work ethic) McCutcheon will likely improve on last season.  McCutcheon is the leader of this team and will need some support from other players but if the Pirates make the playoffs you can expect McCutcheon to be a strong MVP candidate.
Time for him to step up:
Russell Martin started his career as an All Star Catcher (converted from Third Base) for the Dodgers.  The Dodgers had Dionner Navarro set to be the Catcher of the future with high expectations before Martin made it clear that he was the better option.  Martin was one of the top Catchers in the league until a single misstep in 2010 separated his hip.  The uncertainty of his health led the Dodgers to allow him to move on to the Yankees where he had average numbers.  Martin had a strong late August and September last year and showed signs of being the same Russell Martin that Dodgers fans fell in love with in Los Angeles.  The Pirates will not only need Martin to return to his All Star form and continue his success of late 2012, they will need him to bring the winning attitude he experienced in Los Angeles and New York.
Is this his last chance?:
Wandy Rodriguez pitched well for the Houston Astros 2005 World Series team but when the starting rotation includes Roy Oswalt, Roger Clemens and Andy Pettite it is easy to get overlooked.  Rodriguez pitched in two games in that World Series, showing enough promise to be considered the future ace of the team.  His 2005 10-10 season was followed up by 9-10, 9-13 and 9-7 seasons.  He finally seemed to get on track in 2009 with a 14-12 season but he again disappointed the Astros in 2010 (11-12) and 2011 (11-11) leading them to trade him to Pittsburgh in a deadline deal in 2012.  Rodriguez no longer has the pressure of being the ace of the staff and the fresh start in the excited Pittsburgh environment may give his career the jump start he needs.  If not he may be moved to a long relief position instead of a starter.
Prediction:
2nd Place in NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals

Last Year's Record:
88-74 (2nd Place in NL Central, Second Wild Card)
Defeated Braves in Wild Card Game
Defeated Nationals 3-2 in NLDS
Lost to Giants 4-3 in NLCS
Who's new?*:
Michael Blazek (P) promoted from minors, Keith Butler (P) promoted from minors, Randy Choate (P) free agent from Dodgers , Eric Fornataro (P) promoted from minors , Jorge Rondon (P) promoted from minors, Kevin Siegrist (P) promoted from minors, Ronny Cedeno (SS) free agent from Mets, Ty Wigginton (3B) free agent from Phillies.
Who left?*:
Brian Fuentes (P) unsigned free agent, Chris Carpenter (P) injury, Kyle Lohse (P) unsigned free agent , Kyle McClellan (P) free agent to Rangers, Lance Berkman (1B) free agent to Rangers,Skip Schumaker (2B) trade to Dodgers, Rafael Furcal (SS) injury, Bryan Anderson (UT) free agent to White Sox.
What to expect: 
The Cardinals lost their leader in Albert Pujols in 2012 but they managed to get a great season out of Carlos Beltran to minimize the damage.  The Cardinals may have over achieved in 2012, riding the emotion of an unbelievable 2011 World Series win and coming within one victory of reaching the World Series.  This off season is the exact opposite.  They will have to recover from the devastating end to the 2012 season as well as the loss for the season of two of their great team leaders, Chris Carpenter and Rafael Furcal, to injuries.  Add to that the losses of Kyle Lohse and Lance Berkman to free agency and Skip Schumaker in a trade with few additions to offset the losses and you have the potential for a big drop off in St. Louis. 
Why should you root for these guys?: 
I don't mean to sound repetitive but the Cardinals have a tradition of being one of the most successful teams in the history of the game.  They did not win their first World Series until 1926 but since then they have had very few periods where they were not competitive.  Only the Yankees (27) have more World Series wins than the Cardinals, who also claim the best fan base in baseball.  For anyone who longs for some team to catch the Yankees as the winningest franchise, the Cardinals are your best bet (just have some patience because it could take a long time).
Why might this season not turn out like Cardinals fans want?: 
Similar to the Phillies, this could be a defining year for the Cardinals.  The organization could go one of two ways:  they could get angry over the way last year ended and fight the world to prove they were the better team or the end of last season could lead to a negative outlook in the clubhouse.  The Cardinals had two players on the 2012 roster who could help prevent the latter:  Rafael Furcal and Chris Carpenter.  Both men will be out for the year.  Carpenter's career might be in jeopardy.  Last year Carpenter missed most of the season but the team could track his progress knowing that if they could just make the playoffs their ace would be there with his winning aura.  This year they know that he won't be there.  It is a huge psychological swing.  Add to that the loss of Furcal for the year.  Any fan in Los Angeles or St.Louis will tell you that Furcal brings more to the team than just the numbers on the back of his baseball card.  Furcal was a "motor guy", he was the spark plug that started everything and brought the energy to the lineup.  When the 2011 Cardinals fought their way to a World Series win Furcal was usually the one who was making things happen.  The loss of the leadership of these two players could not have come at a worse possible time.
Don't expect too much from him: 
Pete Kozma has an opportunity to prove he can be a major league Shortstop.  He played in 26 games last year and hit .333 with 24 hits, 10 of them for extra bases.  Kozma has some big shoes to fill in taking over for Rafael Furcal.  Kozma will probably not be an all star or rookie of the year candidate but he does have a chance to contribute to the Cardinals season.
Expect great things from:
Adam Wainwright missed the entire 2011 World Series Championship season but returned last season to win 14 games.  While the Cardinals would have loved to have their 1-2 punch of Wainwright and Carpenter they will have to settle for just Wainwright.  Expect Wainwright to continue his excellent career and possibly be a 20 game winner.
Time for Him to Step Up:
Matt Holliday has been an All Star and considered one of the best players in the game.  He has one big flaw: his fielding.  Cardinals fans have been patient, even giving him a standing ovation after his failed catch allowed the Dodgers to win a 2009 playoff game the Cardinals should have won.  The Cardinals need Holliday to improve his fielding as well as bringing his average above .300, where it has been his entire career, except for 2011 and 2012.  With the loss of Berkman and Furcal Holliday will need to work with Beltran to lead this team.
Is this his last chance?:
Rafael Furcal will miss this entire season.  His season last year ended early for the same elbow issues.  While playing with the Dodgers he had major problems because of his back and missed parts of nearly every season in Los Angeles.  Furcal hopes to be back next season but it may not be with the Cardinals.  His contract expires at the end of the season.
Prediction:
3rd Place in NL Central

Chicago Cubs

Last Year's Record:
61-101 (5th in NL Central)
Who's new?*:
Scott Baker (P) free agent from Twins , Scott Feldman (P) free agent from Rangers, Kyuji Fujikawa (P) free agent from Japan, Edwin Jackson (P) free agent from Nationals, Trey McNutt (P) promoted from minors, Hector Rondon (P) Rule 5 draft pick from Indians, Carlos Villanueva (P) free agent from Blue Jays , Arodys Vizcaino (P) trade from Braves, Robert Whitenack (P) promoted from minors, Dioner Navarro (C) free agent from Reds, Junior Lake(SS) promoted from minors, Christian Villanueva (3B) free agent from minors , Logan Watkins (2B) free agent from minors ,Scott Hairston (OF) free agent from Mets, Nate Schierholtz (OF) free agent from Phillies, Jorge Soler (OF) free agent from Cuba, Matt Szczur (OF) promoted from minors.
Who left?*:
Jeff Beliveu (P) waiver claim by Rangers, Manuel Corpas (P) free agent to Rockies, Justin Germano (P) , Alex Hinshaw (P) free agent to Blue Jays, Rodrigo Lopez (P) free agent to Phillies, Paul Maholm (P) trade to Braves, Miguel Socolovich (P) unsigned free agent, Chris Volstad (P) waiver claim by Royals, Randy Wells (P) free agent to Rangers, Tony Campana (OF) trade to Diamondbacks, Reed Johnson (OF) trade to Braves, Bryan LaHair (UT) unsigned free agent,  Anthony Recker (UT) waiver claim by Mets, Blake DeWitt (3B) free agents to Braves, Adrian Cardenas (IF)unsigned free agent , Joe Mather (P) ,free agent to Phillies.
What to expect: 
Cubs fans can be excited for the future but this season is not likely going to be a good one.  The team is definitely moving in the right direction and building the team from the ground up and are timing their climb to the top while the Cardinals and Brewers are starting to lose some of the players that helped them become the leaders in the division.  The Cubs are probably a few years away from competing but they are certainly back on the right track.
Why should you root for these guys?: 
The Cubs have won two World Series in their history and had one of the best teams not to win a World Series when they lost to their crosstown rivals, the White Sox. All three of those seasons happened between 1906-1908.  Since then the Cubs have lost the World Series in 1910, 1918, 1931, 1932, 1935, 1938 and 1945.  They have not been back since. Winning a World Series for Cubs fans would be similar to the Red Sox ending their 80+ year drought.
Why might this season not turn out like Cubs fans want?: 
The Cubs are building a team but they still have some serious holes in their lineup, most notably in Centerfield, Catcher and depth of the pitching rotation.  If they make a few smart moves this season and upgrade at those key positions they will go a long way to getting into the playoff race.
Don't expect too much from him: 
Jeff Smardzija is officially a losing pitcher.  His career record is 21-22.  Smardzija is much better than his record shows but his losses have been a product of the weak lineup that has been behind him.  As the Cubs improve expect his record to improve with it.  Just don't expect him to be a 20 game winner just yet.
Expect great things from:
Darwin Barney won a Gold Glove last year though few would have guessed he was that good.  Barney quietly won the award and improved at the plate in the same season.  Barney will be a big part of the Cubs future and could develop into their marquee player. 
Time for Him to Step Up:
Matt Garza helped the Rays become a consistent playoff contender in the American League.  Since joining the Cubs he has finished with a 10-10 record in 2011 and 5-7 in 2012.  The Cubs signed Garza to be their ace but he has struggled adjusting to the National League.  If the Cubs expect to make a surprise run at the playoffs Garza will need to be what the Cubs expected.
Is this is last chance?:
Alfonso Soriano was a big star in New York when the Yankees won the 2000 World Series.  He was looked at as the future organization.  He was happy in New York.  Then came February of 2004 when the Yankees saw an opportunity to get Alex Rodriguez and Soriano was traded to the Rangers.  He was not happy about the trade and after two years got himself moved to a worse situation:  the Nationals.  Not only was he sent to a team that was not competitive, he was told he was no longer an infielder, he was now a Leftfielder and he was not happy.  He got his opportunity to choose his next stop, Chicago, but he has not lived up to expectations and has long been part of trade rumors.  Soriano will need to put up some tremendous numbers if he wants to stick around to see the Cubs rebuilding  through to the final success.
Prediction:
4th Place in NL Central

Milwaukee Brewers

Last Year's Record:
83-79 (3rd Place in NL Central)
Who's new?*:
Burke Badenhop (P) free agent from Rays, Nick Bucci (P) free agent from minors, Hiram Burgos (P) promoted from minors, Miguel De Los Santos (P) promoted from minors, Michael Gonzalez (P) free agent from Nationals, Tom Gorzelany (P) free agent from Nationals , Johnny Hellweg (P) promoted from minors , Santo Manzanillo (P) promoted from minors, Michael Olmstead (P) promoted from minors, Ariel Pena (P) promoted from minors, Jesus Sanchez (P) promoted from minors, Scooter Gennett (2B) promoted from minors  , Khristopher Davis (OF) promoted from minors, Kaleb Gindi (OF) promote from minors, Josh Prince (OF) promoted from minors.
Who left?*:
Vinnie Chulk (P) unsigned free agent, Tim Dillard (P) unsigned free agent, Livan Hernandez (P) unsigned free agent, Shaun Marcum (P) free agent to Mets, Mike McClendon (P) free agent to Rockies, Manny Parra (P) free agent to Reds, Juan Perez (P) free agent to Blue Jays, Francisco Rodriguez (P)unsigned free agent , Jose Veras (P) free agent to Astros, Yorvit Torrealba (C) free agent to Rockies , Travis Ishikawa (1B) free agent to Orioles, Edwin Maysonet (IF) free agent to Cubs, Nyjer Morgan (OF) unsigned free agent.
What to expect: 
The Brewers are clearly moving backwards.  The team is continuously losing strong players, they lost Shawn Marcum, Manny Parra and Nyjer Morgan this season and lost Prince Fielder last off season while trading Zack Greinke in mid season.  Though they lost all these players they have not replaced them with quality players.  Ryan Braun is still a star but is under even more scrutiny than he was last season.  The pitching rotation is thin and John Axford has struggled.  The Brewers have been competitive since 2007 but this year the bottom may fall out.
Why should you root for these guys?: 
The Brewers have had a tough existence.  They began as the Seattle Pilots for one season then moved to Milwaukee.  They came into existence at the beginning of division play and were dumped into a division with dominant Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles and Tigers teams.  When the league moved to a three division format the Brewers were put in a division with strong Indians and White Sox teams.  When the league expanded to include Tampa Bay and Arizona the Brewers were moved to a division with strong Cardinals, Reds, Cubs and Astros teams.  They were finally able to build a strong team on a budget but have been unable to retain the key components, who got big contracts elsewhere.  The city of Milwaukee has always supported the team but have not always gotten their money's worth in return.  It would be nice to see the faith of the fans rewarded.
Why might this season not turn out like Brewers fans want?: 
This team is clearly on the decline.  The key pieces have started to move on and are not being replaced.  The team will need to rebuild the minor league system and hope to be able to do it quickly.
Don't expect too much from him: 
Ryan Braun has been the Brewers marquee player during their current run of success and when his career is over he will be spoken of along with the greats of Brewers history like Yount, Molitor, Gantner and Higuera.  Braun was the MVP in 2011 based on leading the Brewers to the division title, although Matt Kemp had near triple crown numbers.  In the offsesaon between 2011 and 2012 it was revealed that Braun tested positive for PED's although he won an appeal on a technicality.  His numbers in 2012 were actually better than his 2011 season.  Although his average dropped from .332 to .319 his Home Runs increased from 33 to 41, his hits increased from 187 to 191 and his RBI increased by 1.  Braun does not have the protection in the lineup that he has had over the past few years an the Brewers do not seem to be interested (or capable) of spending the money to get him help.  Other than Aramis Ramirez there is little help available.  You can expect Braun to be an All Star but don't expect his numbers to go up again or for Braun to be an MVP candidate.
Expect great things from:
Aramis Ramirez has quietly been one of the best third basemen in the league for over a decade.  He had one of the best years of his great career in 2012 but did not make the All Star team (4 other third basemen did). Ramirez hit .300, scored 92 runs (eight more than 2011), drove in 105 (12 more than 2011), 50 doubles (15 more than 2011) and 27 HR (1 more than 2011).  Ramirez entered the league in 1998 (2000 as a full time player) but appears to be a long way for being done with his career.
Time for him to step up:
Marco Estrada is a young pitcher with a ton of talent.  As the Brewers entered the 2012 season their pitching staff appeared to be a strength with Greinke, Marcum, Gallardo and Estrada as their four main starters. Estrada struggled and ended with a 5-7 record, though a respectable 3.67 ERA (although he allowed 18 HR in 138 1/3 Innings).  With Marcum in New York and Greinke in LA, Estrada is now the number two pitcher in the rotation.  If the Brewers want to avoid falling to the bottom they will need a lot of help from their pitching staff, starting with Estrada.
Is this his last chance?:
John Axford had a rough 2012.  He saved 35 games but he also had 9 blown saves.  Closers do not usually last more than a few seasons in this league (closers like Rivera and Trevor Hoffman can be considered freaks in their lines of business) because it is such a difficult job to do.  The margin of error for a relief pitcher is so minuscule, and the attention given to any failure is so large, that it is nearly impossible to remain a closer for more than a few years.  With a weaker starting rotation and less offensive weapons, Axford may need to wait longer in between save opportunities.  Axford will need to make the most of his save opportunities if he wants to remain the closer.
Prediction:
5th Place in NL Central

*-All roster changes are based on active rosters at the end of 2012 and active rosters as of the week of 3/3.  Teams may have non-roster invitees in camp who are not listed in the "Who's New?" category.